Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Since it's not hit 940 for months, I dont think there are many current holders at 940. I would imagine that as we get to 940 more people would jump onto the short train? However your saying the opposite will happen if we break 927 it will just blow right past 940?
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Yes they did seem to work the area hard just below those higher levels of resting inventory.....not totally uncommon. If the 924-927 delta zone gets busted out, the market should have one heck of a nice run......940 holders would probably just get out of the way. :)
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Quote from jfw215:

CDV did go lower but price held at support all day. what does that mean? there was selling but all absorbed at support. That's accumulation in my books. Though this is not your typical view of CD, I was hoping AMT could validate my view point.
W
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You may be absolutely right in your analysis... in relation to typical accumulation patterns or Wyckoff bottoms, etc... but in relation to this thread...

The signals are CDV divergent signals... so for a signal to be flashed for buying for an late upside afternoon move (that we had)... we would have needed (earlier in the day) a CDV that diverged by making a higher low pattern in comparison to lower lower low ES prices... opposite to what you posted...

That has been consistent through out this thread...

There was very late in the day from 907 and up STRONG initiating CDV buying so shorts should be pulled (as AMT did) but that signal was unrelated to the lower low CDV to higher ES prices earliar in the day...

but... then again...

If AMT validates your supposition using CDV then he would be invalidating his own thread in my pathetic brain... else i am upside down and Alice and The Cheshire Cat Are One In The Same... :)
 
I don't think he would be invalidating anything if he agreed, it's just that AMT doesn't seem to act on this information. This thread is about cum delta and ways to interpret the data. It is the only logical assumption I can make about what the data is telling us about the market in these situations. Do you have a different theory?

With kind regards,
MK
 
Quote from MidKnight:

I don't think he would be invalidating anything if he agreed, it's just that AMT doesn't seem to act on this information. This thread is about cum delta and ways to interpret the data. It is the only logical assumption I can make about what the data is telling us about the market in these situations. Do you have a different theory?

With kind regards,
MK
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I appreciate your post...

and you are right about two things...

1. AMT says there is NOT always a divergence before a trend move...

but to get a real trend up move a lasting up move their usually needs to be a divergent CDV support base with initiating buying inventory built up in it over a 4 point level that becomes an buy inventory level... i don't see where we got that...

2. and your right its a very tough call on what actually happened Friday in the last 7 minutes before the 4pm Eastern close...

Was it index re balancing, end of the month window dressing or was it Goldman and company running programs with Guv's money
(http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_23.html) to keep moving the market higher so banks can get private money through buying of their large secondary offerings...

or was it a combo of all three...

the last (GS and Guv money) is what i favor the most... which would make a mockery of the the existing intraday volume profile and volume distribution - which it did... as in nonsensical.. and create a stop hunting upthrust spike into the close.. and print a Dow high (8500.33) for the public to see over the weekend to increase public consumer confidence...

as in whatever it takes...if you have a Guv who can abrogate legal corporate laws as they are doing in the GM case then why can't they be also ridiculous in the stock market...

you cannot predict this... the when of that...

and you can do this if you buy billions of dollars in notional value in SP futures a few minutes before the close as equity liquidity is decreasing to almost zero at the same time (since its a Friday close)... and the futures will drive the indexes higher...

even if i am right... and its just another 2cents on my part... its really sad...
 
Here is Friday "EOD Run" chart...........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/31/ES.png

I have been very busy this weekend so sorry for delay. There was no major accumulation on Friday BEFORE the 914.00 bust and EOD run.......we just had some significant initiated buying come in and cause many short holders from the area in the 914's up to bail out going into the close (they got jammed and scrammed....LOL!). :)

I will also add, there was very solid equities "BUY program" activity that hit just after 2:00 CST which carried to the close. :)
 
Quote from rainman2:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2441398

I'm beginning to think there might be something to this cumlative delta after all. :D
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I have it very close to even too.

Have you ever looked into the discrepancy below?


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05-03-09 03:06 PM

Quote from rainman2:

here you go...


Thanks, Rainman. Are you sure about your numbers? I see CD divergence of about +30k (vs. +6k in my chart and AMT's) at the 885 price level.

==========================

Watch out for GIGO!

D.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

....we just had some significant initiated buying come in and cause many short holders from the area in the 914's up to bail out going into the close (they got jammed and scrammed....LOL!). :)
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It seems like the Persians looked thirsty and the 300 gave them something to drink.

JW
 
Quote from stoneface:

My ES CDV is a bit different than yours. Specifically, CDV high on 5/27 vs 5/20.

Your chart shows a CDV HH on 5/27... while mine is roughly equivalent.

What datafeed / charting software/indicator do you use?

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/31/60k.png
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Quote from manlycure:

I have it very close to even too.

Have you ever looked into the discrepancy below?
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I am using OEC (openecry) data with sierra charts. My CDV line is using closing prices. What time do you guys use to start tracking CDV for the current trading day? I use 16:30 est of the previous day.

manlycure,

Here's the discussion :

http://www.sierrachart.com/supportboard/showthread.php?t=21316

Personally, I have never had a problem with OEC data or their fills. Whether OEC data is more accurate than DTN data, I can't say for sure. I do know that for every disputed delta divergence signal, OEC has been spot on in giving the signal. :)

Here's another chart of CDV that resets at the start of every new trading day.
 

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Quote from Whisky:

It seems like the Persians looked thirsty and the 300 gave them something to drink.

JW
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Yes indeed.......and this morning they gave you a gift on that final move above 934.75's this a.m. :) We ran up to 937.00 which was met with immediate initiated selling (just a few points under the lower 940's next delta zone....:cool:
 
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