Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from manlycure:

What do you calculate the net long resting inventory to be at this area? Each sub-tic on the left Y axis (showing prices) is about 4k contracts.

D.
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As you can see that area has several initiated BUY pulses that finally drove price out of the low 840's......but there is not a lot of resting inventory there at this point. I do still think that area will be worth a bounce or two if price trades back to that zone in the weeks/months ahead. The zone just below in the low 830's has more resting inventory and will be more significant for support imo......so that is to be noted.
 
Quote from Whisky:

Hey AMT. Thanks for input. I've been attempting to dissect and make an objective use of your method or parts of it (unsuccessfully so far) since your older HnS thread.

Simple question (for the benefit of all readers, especially me, me, me, me, me):

Would you categorize your trading method more as :

a-Almost 100% objective (i.e. I hope I can make a machine do what I do, while I fly my plane and collect profits once a day or once a week, eventually. And I'm sure a gifted programmer can code a machine to do what I do, even if I can't code it myself now).

b-Subjective-Intuitive (There is no way anybody can make a machine do what I do using my discretion and experience accumulated over thousands of hours of screentime watching price and volume action).

c-A little of both. (say 60-40).

Thanks.

JW
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IMO what I do can definitely be programmed and can be duplicated by others with full knowledge and understanding of what I am actually using as trade entry criteria. These type of threads at ET imo are more for discussing a type/style of analyzing price/volume activity (ideas exchange). This thread is not imo for showing everything that I use for trade entry criteria (giving out a complete method or edge).

I do feel there are some very smart traders within the ET community (2 of them......JK......LOL!!!) and you never know when some discussion of IDEAS can create a whole new idea chain. So I guess I would have to say that I am in the 90 to 95% objective column for this discussion.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

OK......here was entries from today AFTER the market made the initial 896.00 HOD around 10:19 a.m. CST......there were several short entries and one long entry............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/04/ES_2.png

As we traded into the close today, price did make a run to the 905.00 level I had targeted as potential resistance.....I started to sell at the very first sign of initiated selling shown by the delta as price traded near the 905's............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/04/ES_3.png

First targets at 899.50 and next targets at 894.50.....I will look to sell any trading above my initial 904.50 entry in the AH session.
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Appreciate the charts and commentary... but its seems there also was a SELL at 900..

why not there and but a go at 904 short...

thanks...
 
AMT,
It looks like you have established a "one point from pivot" rule for your entries. Can you expand on how you are able to identify a trade, then enter within 1 point of the pivot? It seems like you'd need to be quite quick in seeing the setup and placing the trade.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

IMO what I do can definitely be programmed and can be duplicated by others with full knowledge and understanding of what I am actually using as trade entry criteria. These type of threads at ET imo are more for discussing a type/style of analyzing price/volume activity (ideas exchange). This thread is not imo for showing everything that I use for trade entry criteria (giving out a complete method or edge).

I do feel there are some very smart traders within the ET community (2 of them......JK......LOL!!!) and you never know when some discussion of IDEAS can create a whole new idea chain. So I guess I would have to say that I am in the 90 to 95% objective column for this discussion.
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Cool bro. Thanks for the answer. It's nice to know that something like yours can be made 100% objective or near so.

Nobody on his right mind would post a complete edge on internet.

Godspeed.

JW
 
Quote from EdgeHunter:

Appreciate the charts and commentary... but its seems there also was a SELL at 900..

why not there and but a go at 904 short...

thanks...
More...
Actually the 899/900 area was not a good area to sell imo......the CD has just broke to new high readings for the day, as price broke out of a consolidation zone. Price in this situation with new high delta readings for the day will most likely give you range extention beyond only one or two points................

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/04/ES_4.png

Let price run a bit beyond the consolidation zone when the delta makes new high readings for the day (that is significant when tracking the delta......it shows short covering capitulation in effect).
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Actually the 899/900 area was not a good area to sell imo......the CD has just broke to new high readings for the day, as price broke out of a consolidation zone. Price in this situation with new high delta readings for the day will most likely give you range extention beyond only one or two points................

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/05/04/ES_4.png

Let price run a bit beyond the consolidation zone when the delta makes new high readings for the day (that is significant when tracking the delta......it shows short covering capitulation in effect).
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thanks that is a good market mechanics explanation that is in line with basic S/R rules...
 
Quote from SoCalTrader619:

AMT,
It looks like you have established a "one point from pivot" rule for your entries. Can you expand on how you are able to identify a trade, then enter within 1 point of the pivot? It seems like you'd need to be quite quick in seeing the setup and placing the trade.
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It is not that hard to do once everything "slows down" for you using delta the way I do. Most often I can see a potential set up developing ahead of time, so I just key in on my cumulative delta initiated selling indications. Once I see my trade entry criteria set I will jump into the trade, if I am at the 1 point or better fill from most recent qualifying pivot.....otherwise I just place limit orders and wait for a fill at the 1 point or better price levels. Most times I have no problems getting into trades. :)

BTW.....the charts that I have shown are NOT my entry charts.....these are just set to explain the basics of what I am doing.
 
Quote from Whisky:

Cool bro. Thanks for the answer. It's nice to know that something like yours can be made 100% objective or near so.

Nobody on his right mind would post a complete edge on internet.

Godspeed.

JW
More...
No problem........there is still a lot of what I do not at all mentioned, so I am not really worried talking about the fundamentals of the cumulative delta concept.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

As you can see that area has several initiated BUY pulses that finally drove price out of the low 840's......but there is not a lot of resting inventory there at this point. I do still think that area will be worth a bounce or two if price trades back to that zone in the weeks/months ahead. The zone just below in the low 830's has more resting inventory and will be more significant for support imo......so that is to be noted.
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Thanks for the insight. The inventory doesn't look like much at the low 840's (previously posted 4/28 chart). There's an earlier pivot in this zone on 4/22, would that add up to the 4/28 reaction?

I went back to 4/23 (see chart) and marked the pivot zone, each subtic is 3k delta contracts (cyan/magenta OHLC is CD, green/red OHLC is price). There's more inventory there (if I follow your method of calculation as I understand it) tho nothing exceptional.

There's quite a bit more inventory in the low 820's from early April.

D.
 

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