Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from shortie:

but the significant move may still prove to be to the upside even though the odds are that ES tanks, right?
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Sure it can! If buyers come in and push the order flow in futures (mixed with equities buy program activities), then we may see price start to trade the 950's level. This type of activity would force many sellers to either commit additional aggressive selling or they would have to get out of the way (neutralize their currently held short inventory).

With 48,000 net short contracts though, you have a very visual reference as to who would be winning that fight......realtime. :)
 
Quote from shortie:

but the significant move may still prove to be to the upside even though the odds are that ES tanks, right?
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The bet is currently to the downside from the current held inventory.....that is the tell tale sign we have now before us.
 
Quote from Insearch:

I think I see where you come up with the 48K, but what about counting the CD readings from 1:30EST onwards when price traded the 44.25-47.75? See attached, am I missing something or do I perhaps have a data issue?
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I will put up a chart latter.....that should help. Right now I have to head out for a while.....Wife and I have early dinner plans. :)

Hey....get me some 938.50 fills while I am gone....LOL! :D
 
If you don't get the CD divergence you want at a specific price/time, just choose another price/time, it's going to give you what you want sooner or later. My dad used to say - you can always run a straight line through any 3 points... if the line is thick enough :-)

Ok, I'm just kidding, it was a good *long* day, leaving the shorting to the experts.

CD divergence @940:

AH to RTH open: -10k
RTH open to lunch: -20k
an hour after lunch: -10k
dinner time: +10k (back to lunch level)

CD momentum does seem to be to the downside tho.

D.
 
Quote from manlycure:

If you don't get the CD divergence you want at a specific price/time, just choose another price/time, it's going to give you what you want sooner or later. My dad used to say - you can always run a straight line through any 3 points... if the line is thick enough :-)

Ok, I'm just kidding, it was a good *long* day, leaving the shorting to the experts.

CD divergence @940:

AH to RTH open: -10k
RTH open to lunch: -20k
an hour after lunch: -10k
dinner time: +10k (back to lunch level)

CD momentum does seem to be to the downside tho.

D.
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Hey just curious what criteria you're looking at when you say it was a "good long day"?

price action? market profile? Open->Close?

I saw indecision.. (many conflicting signals)
 
Quote from chuckt101:

Hey just curious what criteria you're looking at when you say it was a "good long day"?

price action? market profile? Open->Close?

I saw indecision.. (many conflicting signals)
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Actually, per my earlier post in the thread, using CD dips to place buy orders for an equity ATS. Works like a charm.

For ES, the statistical edge from CD-based entries is barely profitable, still work in progress.

D.
 
Quote from Alcoeus:

Great thread AMT, thanks for sharing!

I'm wondering though, what you make of the CD for NQ? That CD divergence you see in ES with the new high in price today isn't seen in NQ. I've attached a chart of NQ showing the higher high in CD as well.
Thanks!

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/8412/nq060962200910000volume.jpg
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I think he'd mentioned something about the "reliability" of data on this . . . and I believe he was looking into it, . . . not 100% sure though . . .
 
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