Invasion of Baghdad has started !

[iceman1]

Quote from Jayford:



We may be invading for a number of reasons, but oil isn't one of them. This will not increase the amount of oil on the market for years, if at all. Unless the new Iraqi government leaves OPEC, which is highly unlikely, the price of oil will not significantly change. OPEC will continue to TRY to keep oil in the 25 to 30 buck range by controlling output. This war will not change that. The only way we will get oil directly is if we make Iraq a colony and take it! Yeah right.

Also, based on how much this war costs (including the cost of reconstruction, and the indirect cost of what the war has and will do to our economy), it would take DECADES for the oil to cover our expenses even if we took every single drop. People carrying the signs "no blood for oil" have no clue how the oil markets function.

There are much more plausible arguments if you wish to use negative reasons for invading, such as projecting US power abroad, or even finishing George Senior's job. Remember, we went into Bosnia, Somalia, and Afghanistan also. No oil there. Just because Iraq has oil, people assume this is the reason for invading, without really thinking it through.

Jay

Jay.... what about something I heard pertaining to hussein and Iraq's payment in euro vs. dollars?

 

[buzzy2]

Quote from iceman1:


Jay.... what about something I heard pertaining to hussein and Iraq's payment in euro vs. dollars?

That's another hallucination of some flea-infested communist hippie who probably doesn't even have a checking account.

If american businesses were worried about currency risk in oil purchases they just would buy currency swaps. problem solved. no need to invade another country for that.

 

[aphexcoil]

Quote from Jayford:



We may be invading for a number of reasons, but oil isn't one of them. This will not increase the amount of oil on the market for years, if at all. Unless the new Iraqi government leaves OPEC, which is highly unlikely, the price of oil will not significantly change. OPEC will continue to TRY to keep oil in the 25 to 30 buck range by controlling output. This war will not change that. The only way we will get oil directly is if we make Iraq a colony and take it! Yeah right.

Jay,

Good intelligent post. However, if you wanted to really throw a wild scenario out there, perhaps the oil could be a part of the equation. You observed in your post what effect obtaining Iraq's oil would have on the entire oil market, but what about micro-markets? Controlling Iraq's oil and giving contracts to large American corporations would really fluff the pockets of a lot of CEO's and other people that have ties to oil (does this cover anyone in the Bush administration?).

So, although global oil supplies would be virtually unaffected by American control of Iraqi oil, there could be very lucrative deals for smaller parties if exclusive control of those oil fields were obtained.

There is also the fact that installing a democratic government in Iraq would give the United States a great area in which to control events within the Middle East while also preparing for an attack on North Korea.

 

[Josh_B]

Quote from wally_:



In 1991 during the Gulf War there were uprisings against Saddam in Iraq, one in the North and another one in the South. That was the best time to help Iraqis to liberate themselves from Saddam. But at that time Saddam was not considered such a danger to American interests and so the former US administration did not think it was a good idea to help Iraqis even though Saddam was as much of a ruthless scummy dictator then as he is now.

It appears that removing Saddam was not part of the objective, and maybe it was the prefered approach back then.

From Bush Sr:

"We should not march into Baghdad. To occupy Iraq would instantly shatter our coalition, turning the whole Arab world against us, and make a broken tyrant into a latter day Arab hero -- assigning young soldiers to a fruitless hunt for a securely entrenched dictator and condemning them to fight in what would be an unwinnable urban guerrilla war. It could only plunge that part of the world into even greater instability."

-- Former US President George HW Bush from his 1998 "A World Transformed"


Josh

 

[Jayford]

Quote from aphexcoil:



Jay,

Good intelligent post. However, if you wanted to really throw a wild scenario out there, perhaps the oil could be a part of the equation. You observed in your post what effect obtaining Iraq's oil would have on the entire oil market, but what about micro-markets? Controlling Iraq's oil and giving contracts to large American corporations would really fluff the pockets of a lot of CEO's and other people that have ties to oil (does this cover anyone in the Bush administration?).

So, although global oil supplies would be virtually unaffected by American control of Iraqi oil, there could be very lucrative deals for smaller parties if exclusive control of those oil fields were obtained.

There is also the fact that installing a democratic government in Iraq would give the United States a great area in which to control events within the Middle East while also preparing for an attack on North Korea.

Yep, lots of press about this. Going to war, hammering the crap out of our economy, and destoying foreign relations with much of the world to enrich some oil friends. Sounds very far fetched to me. Yes, George has lots of oil connections, but that's mainly because he was raised in the industry. Oil contacts are his family's closest friends. I don't think there is much to it, and I'm not sticking up for him when I say that.

The last paragraph about setting up a democratic gov in the middle east is major, and I think this war does have a lot to do with that, as well as using hyper power to genuinely rid the earth of a nasty man. Many people feel a dem gov in Iraq would have a domino effect throughout the region which is now almost exlusively ruled by autocratic governments. Whether Iraq could even operate under a democracy remains to be seen though.


Jay

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Jayford:



Yep, lots of press about this. Going to war, hammering the crap out of our economy, and destroying foreign relations with much of the world to enrich some oil friends. Sounds very far fetched to me. Yes, George has lots of oil connections, but that's mainly because he was raised in the industry. Oil contacts are his family's closest friends. I don't think there is much to it, and I'm not sticking up for him when I say that.

The last paragraph about setting up a democratic gov in the middle east is major, and I think this war does have a lot to do with that, as well as using hyper power to genuinely rid the earth of a nasty man. Many people feel a dem gov in Iraq would have a domino effect throughout the region which is now almost elusively ruled by autocratic governments. Whether Iraq could even operate under a democracy remains to be seen though.


Jay

And then what... do we change the entire world to our satisfaction??! Hmmmm guess America is all about a wolf in sheep's clothing. Hell... let's start some Empire building of our own! Bomb's away!

I say let's clean up our own act... there's lots to do here in this country before we go about with self-righteous dogma trying to allegedly "right" the World! Plenty to do. WHEN we have perfect JUSTICE for all in the US...... THEN we can preach to others!

Let's start by putting some former CEOs and analysts in JAIL.... not slap them on the wrist and allow them to live under golden parachutes after ripping off decent folks! Yeah.. let's start there.

Regards,

Ice

 

[alfonso]

Quote from aphexcoil:



Jay,

Good intelligent post. However, if you wanted to really throw a wild scenario out there, perhaps the oil could be a part of the equation. You observed in your post what effect obtaining Iraq's oil would have on the entire oil market, but what about micro-markets? Controlling Iraq's oil and giving contracts to large American corporations would really fluff the pockets of a lot of CEO's and other people that have ties to oil (does this cover anyone in the Bush administration?).

So, although global oil supplies would be virtually unaffected by American control of Iraqi oil, there could be very lucrative deals for smaller parties if exclusive control of those oil fields were obtained.

There is also the fact that installing a democratic government in Iraq would give the United States a great area in which to control events within the Middle East while also preparing for an attack on North Korea.

Excellent points Aphie.

"It's about oil" doesn't mean it's "about oil" for the American Nation/People, it means "it's about oil" for the fat cats and their pals.

Anybody that cares to take a glance at American international affairs over the last 100 years will easily conclude that in at least 80% of cases life for the people in whose countries it got involved got much worse. It's hardly ever been about humanitarian purposes.

Follow the $, compare the facts to the spin. Couldn't get simpler.