Intuition in trading.

ashantt said:
These are are called high probability trades.
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yes but high probability means low reward.

and for safety or surer reward you have to pay more, in the form of high risk.

so if you do not take the [small] reward then you have take the big risk [big loss].

trading is math and you cannot escape math INTUITIVELY.
 
do NOT confuse intuition with the actions taken, without deliberating, by trained professionals .

so if you are not trained and you use intuition as substitute for training, which is what most newbies do, it is obvious that you are, well, acting purely intuitively.

considering that the statistics show that 95 % of newbie businesses fail with in one year, purely acting intuitively is not good for long term success
 
Big AAPL said:
I use intuition after all my rules are met. Works for me.
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my problem i get suspicious when all things align .....better safe ..in markets..they are open 24 hours any case so you do not miss anything.

and there is always a safer second entry or a third....
 
I like to call intuition an educated guess. You read macro info micro info you look at various opinions and expected results, you look at charts and the various TA available and finally make decisions. Educated guesses also lead to outside the box possibilities that may or not influence decisions.

I don't dismiss strict system trading, I just couldn't figure out how to set one up to give me something accurate enough to use. I believe AI will in some future be able to take educated guesses in and integrate them in systems based trading.
 
As Schwager explains in the intro to his "Zen and the Art of Trading" chapter, this wide-ranging, and rather philosophical, interview with a top trader had to be scrapped on fears it would alter the trader's image with his firm's corporate clients.

Schwager asked this trader for permission to anonymously publish one interview excerpt, which he found particularly insightful. Here's a sample:

"...I still don't understand your trading method. How could you make these huge sums of money by just watching the screen?

There was no system to it. It was nothing more than, "I think the market is going up, so I'm going to buy." "It's gone up enough, so I'm going to sell." It was completely impulsive. I didn't sit down and formulate any trading plan. I don't know where the intuition comes from, and there are times when it goes away.

How do you recognize when it goes away?

When I'm wrong three times in a row, I call time out. Then I paper trade for a while.

For how long do you paper trade?

Until I think I'm in sync with the market again. Every market has a rhythm, and our job as traders is to get in sync with that rhythm. I'm not really trading when I'm doing those trades. There's trading being done, but I'm not doing it.

What do you mean you're not doing it?

There's buying and selling going on, but it's just going through me. It's like my personality and ego are not there. I don't even get a sense of satisfaction on these trades. It's absolutely that objective. Did you ever read Zen and the Art of Archery?..."
 
Laissez Faire said:
Intuition

Is there a place for intuition in placing trades or should we always be cold and rational in our decision making? Do you use it in your own trading?

Particularly interested in answers from experienced traders.

Discuss.
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Successful "intuition" traders actually have a pretty straightforward strategy that can be modelled and there isn't anything magical about it. Say orderflow traders.

Bad intuition traders can be classified as trades based on current emotions and current PnL's. Success depends on luck, usually they are not lucky because they tend to average down a lot, revenge trade and god knows what else.

So, intuition trading has like dozen shades of grays which makes it kinda difficult to have an universal answer about how successful it can be.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello ironchef,

Click the buy and sell button +XXX per day. ALL your problems in life solved.

Trading is EASY, very EASY.
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Been there done that back in 2010-12. It created all my problems in my life then. :banghead:

Trading was EASY, so EASY to transfer money from my trading account to other's trading accounts, just click.....
 
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