Intuition Amplifiers 2

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Why mix in the human element in day trading?

surf

I guess because humans drive the market. Until coders are not using ideas that were birthed in the human brain the markets will always reflect human nature. That's why I could tell the difference between a chart with computer generated random data and a real chart.

A Dom can tell you when a trade is happening, but not where and why it is happening. A clever chart can tell you when the heavy hitters are trading, why they are acting at that level and why at that time.

Furthermore you can see why in advance so you are prepared for action and one last point - it isn't boring meaning you can perform at a much higher level.

Here's an example of some of these points. You can see who is wanting to take the market where because they are holding Thor's Hammer. But I want to dig deeper than this.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

Thanks surf and Ammo, I'll follow up on those over the w/e.

I had a look at a few videos of Jigsaw but my charts are more advanced than what I have seen so far but it's too early to draw any conclusions. I designed my own volume charts and what I saw of Jigsaw (so far) was much the same as what good Lev II traders did 10 years back. You can alarm T&S for big trades and do all kinds of displays for chart volume but what I want to do is crack the HFT guys screwing up the order book. That is way too fast for what I saw on Jigsaw.

One important point is that looking at that Jigsaw Dom would turn me into a zombie after a few hrs. I think I saw a beautiful girl in a red dress.. or was that the Matrix?

Anyone using Jigsaw?

I agree, before HFT, tape and Dom readers did do what jigsaw and other similar programs do-- I just named jigsaw since its readily available -- there are far more advanced programs.
Your ping time to the exchange must be very slow--- you can't win until you cure your inherent latency issue. surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

I guess because humans drive the market. Until coders are not using ideas that were birthed in the human brain the markets will always reflect human nature. That's why I could tell the difference between a chart with computer generated random data and a real chart.


Here's an example of some of these points. You can see who is wanting to take the market where because they are holding Thor's Hammer. But I want to dig deeper than this.

You couldn't tell-- you guessed wrong on Maestros chart. In addition, last I checked, over 85% of all volume on the NYSE is from genetic, evolving, self adapting programs, not humans. So, sorry, you are wrong on that count also.

surf

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You couldn't tell-- you guessed wrong on Maestros chart. In addition, last I checked, over 85% of all volume on the NYSE is from genetic, evolving, self adapting programs, not humans. So, sorry, you are wrong on that count also.

surf

How about making this interesting? You're certain enough to wager $200 for a meal and bottle of red that I got Maestro's chart wrong?

If you're right I'll wire it to you and if your wrong you wire it to mine. Fair enough?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

How about making this interesting? You're certain enough to wager $200 for a meal and bottle of red that I got Maestro's chart wrong?

If you're right I'll wire it to you and if your wrong you wire it to mine. Fair enough?

Sorry, I'm not a degenerate gambler. Why not just link to the post where you guessed correctly and Maestro confirmed? Otherwise you are not being truthful.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Sorry, I'm not a degenerate gambler. Why not just link to the post where you guessed correctly and Maestro confirmed? Otherwise you are not being truthful.

What! You want me to link to the post - didn't you even read it? Well then I'd call it gambling if you are telling readers I "guessed" rather than gave detailed reasons and that I was wrong when Maestro said I was right... while you never bothered to even read the post!! That's certainly not truthful wouldn't you say?

Anyway I'm glad you own up to being a plain ordinary gambler while the bit about not being degenerate I'll accept if you tell me it's true

If you're certain, why not collect an easy $200? That wouldn't be a gamble, would it?

 

[themickey]

Can you two, Surf and Xspurt, have your fights and pissing contests on another thread. Stop polluting!
I witnessed enough of this stupidity on Surf's now 'closed' Journal. Thx.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from themickey:

Can you two, Surf and Xspurt, have your fights and pissing contests on another thread. Stop polluting!
I witnessed enough of this stupidity on Surf's now 'closed' Journal. Thx.

Nah, of course you wouldn't respond if I completely twisted back to front what you said, now would you mickey? You'd just lie down and take it like a good lad?

There is a point here, which you might have missed. Random data and real data appear different. There is a reason - the human connection. It was clear and logically expressed while surf puts it down to a wrong guess. Maestro confirmed my conclusions.

The issue isn't who is right - it is about how the market works and thus there are implications for how it is approached from a traders point of view and how intuition can be used and developed.

There wouldn't be pissing contests if people like you would take a stand for what for what is true and factual instead of tarring everyone with the same brush.

 

[themickey]

Quote from Xspurt:

.....There wouldn't be pissing contests if people like you would take a stand for what for what is true and factual instead of tarring everyone with the same brush.

What you and others need to wake - which you haven't yet - is debating with Surf is like arguing with a Jehovah Witness.
It can go on until you are blue in the face but you will never win a debate.
That's my last comment on the subject.

 

[Xspurt]

Keeping on topic - what is sentiment? If we believe the dictionary definition, that it is an attitude, thought or judgment prompted by a feeling, then can a market that is machine driven have sentiment?

If it is a mixture of human thinking and emotions mixed with algo's, how do we make sense of something as human and abstract as sentiment? And how quickly can sentiment be used in a trade? If all algo trading carries the fingerprints of man, how do we identify humanity in the market? Do we need to? If Sorros dumps the market because he is in a bad mood because his back is sore, then that's not a machine. If the market reacts to Cyprus, it is because human nature recoils at governmental theft of deposits, that's not a machine.

There is a foundational belief that I think influences a traders thinking and approach to methodology and it comes down to the question of the randomness of the market. If it is machine driven, then can there be real sentiment? Or are we tagging an old trading term on to a computerized mathematical event like the dream of the robot with AI that longs for sentiment and love.

Is it possible to develop intuition between a human and a machine if the machine is constantly evolving and changing its game plan?

We learn to read peoples facial expressions and body language and voice inflections and eye movements and breathing rates etc. and we pick up on sentiment before the details are communicated... even before reason and logic interrogates the situation. What if we can do that in the market?

Because I believe the market is directly linked to human sentiment it directs my search for answers. I keep an open mind to all inputs for and against my reasoning but I must see evidence that can be capitalized on in a reliable way. That is why I am here - it is part of the journey I am on because I am looking for pieces of the jigsaw that are taking place at a speed I can't make any sense of.

I know most traders would disagree with my thinking, that the market consists of random movement within predictable boundaries, but that is where I want to trade - at that predictable extreme. Simply put - I need an intuition amplifier that is super fast and I think MAESTRO is on to something.