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Intuition Amplifiers 2
- Thread starter MAESTRO
- Start date
Fascinating. Have you read about B Knutson's work on neurofinance? Reminds me a heck of a lot about AZT (limitless film).
http://www-psych.stanford.edu/~span/Press/bk0206press.html
http://www.cell.com/neuron/abstract/S0896-6273(05)00657-4
"The pleasure of orgasm, the high from cocaine, the rush of buying Google Inc. at $450 a share --- the same neural network governs all three, Knutson, 38, concluded. What's more, our primal pleasure circuits can, and often do, override our seat of reason, the brain's frontal cortex, the professor says. In other words, stocks, like sex, sometimes drive us crazy. . "
The exact reason why many are not equipped to handle the market, particullarly evident in ones who love it the most.
So you actually took an FMRI of a person trading? Tell us more about the study. Was there real monetary incentive when the subject was trading, or any other kind of reward/punishment mechanism?
Ok... if you're telling the truth, then this is interesting.
What is your sample size? What kind of statistics are you employing? Will there be a paper or study? Are you looking at the hypothalamus, heart rate variability, and other physiological responses?
I love neurology, at least I used to. Hence my username. I have opinions on this but i'm keeping quiet.
Logic is not used while trading.
To make money trading a process is used.
The sensing is a very clear inputting (to the brain) process.
To make money using a mental process there are three shells involved. the outer shell is spatial, the middle shell is shapes; the inner shell is movement of the shapes.
For me, I trade subconsciously simply because there is 1000 times the subconscious activity compared to the conscious activity.
The major major secret of taking the full offer of the market can become obvious. In this thread it will not make it to the surface.
In understanding the operation of the markets designing and defining a complete sysem is relatively simple.
the other half of a working system is making it failsafe.
The bottom line in taking the full offer of the market is is handling the violations of trending.
going from the inner shell is the observation of the shape changing which in sensing is called "movement"
Here is a process during a shape movement:
SYM>>>FTP>>>>HITCH>>>>> Stitch>>>>>> OB.
None of the early shapes allow the independent variable to be measured. At the lock in shape occurance two measurements of the independent variable are happening. This very often leads to a violation of trending system and abruptly ends a trend. Profits are taken and the trader is then on the opposite tack in the market if and only if he does hold/reversal type trading.
For forex, the indepndent variable is not available nor visible; this kind of prohibits designing logic for trading. Obviously the logic part of the mind will be at rest during forex trading.
What takes its place. OODA does.
A wager is under consideration at all times.
The brain activity centers on paiin. When a pain limit is reached the context of the pain is erradicated.
Lets say the profit's max is reached. The pain has a minmum that can be observed. anbnd the trading time from that pint on is wasted and less capital will be retained (uneearned).
At this time remorse comes into the picture along with increasing pain.
BUT the problem is this; the mind does not "add" parallel processes; all it does is not measure unchanging (the presene or absense) things.
Thus, the OP vendor has a remedy to watch other than money.
Quote from Xspurt:
Mean reversion is a strange phenomena for there is more than one mean due to there being more than one cycle acting in any time frame. This is where discovery of the dominant cycle is most important because it tells you which mean is the true mean for the current swing. Isolating swings from mean reversions has led to many Elliot Wave type wild goose chases while doing the opposite and isolating mean reversion from swings puts too much focus on the mean and misses the reason for an overshoot. Using a 20 ema is a kind of mean reversion except the market is not tuned to a constant 20 ema mean so it works and then it doesn't and then it does. However a good trader will still be able to develop a winning strategy on the 20 ema by recognizing the tells for when the market is playing this level. Trading off the 20 ema can be successful but it leaves you hanging in the wind trying to find the max excursion.
There are two fascinating features about mean reversion and the 1st is how the mean acts like a magnet to draw PA to that neutral zone, and it doesn't matter how far or fast PA has moved to get to the mean, it is neither overbought nor oversold when it arrives there. Knowing this is a great aid in deciding how to play the mean because the market may look very oversold on a sharp drop when it is only half way into its stride.
Interestingly, when PA gets to the mean it doesn't want to be there, so the mean acts to draw PA towards it from its maximum excursion, yet when PA arrives the mean acts to repel PA again like a spurned lover. This doesn't have to be instant rejection as the PA will often zigzag on the mean to prove it and pay respect and then shoot off.
The other fascinating feature of mean reversion is the maximum pain or pleasure threshold (depending on whether you are on the right or wrong side of the move) that the market tolerates. I have no idea why these things happen but it certainly reeks of mass psychology, that when PA gets to a predetermined excursion zone it is reeled back in like a fish on a line only to be cast out again. One of the reasons I like this thread is because it is digging at something underlying price and it is not the fundamentals or the TA, it is the unexplained relationships that somehow tie us all together. There is some form of communication that winners have between them and also a similar bond between losers. There are leaders and laggards with the latter always trying to discover the formers intentions and somehow the math and psychology are inextricably linked.
Mean Reversion is constantly in play in every time frame as the market continually breathes like a living organism, but there are more mathematically precise measures of turning points that relate tops to bottoms and Jack has been confused about this for an eternity. Jack is still lost in a world where time is not a variable in the market and one dimension is subject to Failures To Traverse. Come on Jack: time to give up on that conventional wisdom and add a bit of panache to your trading
I agree. The market operates dialectically as does life. The internal relations between opposites is played out as cycles in linear time. Formal logic requires external relations so it is limited when it comes to the market or predicting the future.
Thanks, that's very interesting -- your description with 'house', 'rooms' and 'foundations'. That's something I would not have thought of, in fact reflecting on it, my 'probability distributions projections' are probably more like rational conscious analysis and not like the intuition from unconscious parts of the brain. I think I'm stuck on the one-way aspect of the time dimension.
This leads me to suppose, one way to recognize 'intuition' is it will have unrelated imagery but from which analogies can be drawn in some way. I'll try tuning into imagery-impressions I get. Usually they're like 'pain spikes' or 'pain claws', or things like 'boredom, nothing's going on' or 'forming probit curves'.