Intuition Amplifiers 2

Quote from ammo:

i pilot would not purposely crash a plane, a painter would not purposely dump paint on a carpet, a roofer walkoff a roof, but a trader(really a non trader) will ride a position til acct goes negative ,figure that one out
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Yep, that's what I mean. Quite the difference. Trading is a game of long-term result, where single "fights" don't matter and tactical defeat on purpose is not only normal, but an absolutey necessity.

Closer to the prolonged chess game (or leading a real war) analogy, where one may purposely sacrifice some figures to get overall strategical advantage.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Cornix posted this a while back on his blog and it helped me stop trying to predict what the majority of market participants were going to do next:

http://www.cornixtrading.com/2012/07/rats-vs-yale-students-randomness-psychology/

Over my 5 years of trading, I learned that my "feelings" were a thing best faded. Maybe after another 5 years, I'll be at the highest level of performance, trading at the intuitive level, as Mark Douglas calls it.

In the meantime, the most profitable psychological leap for me was to stop caring about what will happen next on any individual trade.

I look for two things to tell me whether to consider a trade: the setup and the R:R (based on stats I've compiled over thousands of appearances of the setups).

I then either place an order at the price that would signal to me a) something is more likely than not to happen, and when it happens the market offers a gain at least equal to the technically logical risk, or b) something has a 50/50 chance of happening, but when it happens the market offers 2 or more times the technically logical risk.

This is my personal trading plan, pure probabilities. Some of the setups that "feel" like slam dunks fail quickly and some of the setups "feel" impossible produce gains beyond my best expectations.

I was wearing myself out trying to predict what would happen next. I was the Yale student, certain that there was a way to perfect a system that was darn good enough if I could learn to embrace losses as a natural part of trading.

Kudos to those whose intuition helps them profit from the markets.

My intuition simply cannot be trusted at this point and so I have no desire to amplify it. :p
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I agree.

Prediction is not a necessary part of trading.

The mind has other things to do while making money.
 
Quote from cornix:

I used to compare trading with other professions of skill, such as drivers or pilots too. But recently started to question such a belief (this wonderful thread sure helped to provoke some thinking :) ).

Reason is the following:

fighter pilot for example is a profession of absolute skill. "Do or die".

Trading however is different in the sense that regular tactical "die" is not a strategical defeat, not even a trouble, but integral part of the process of successful speculation.

It probably requires different approach than Top Gun like "be the best", because it would subliminally force trader to seek for a way to avoid losses as if they were negative events. Not a good trait to possess in order to trade successfully, especially for people who don't have consistent track record of their own trading yet.

So for a high-level professional developing into the intuitive stage of trading is a logical progress. For a person struggling to become consistent it may be the curse. Cause as NoDoji said earlier, "secret" of success is much related to making things as mechanical as possible.
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I agree with you.

The "mental shift" has nothing to do with do or die.

Trends have two ortohognal parts. One is continue and lasts event after event and the other is just a moment in a sub class as defined by the other context of failing to continue (called a "change context").

The RDBMS approach provides the unique set of mathematical definitions that are just "transported" to trading platforms and what the trader choses to observe (56 distinct pieces. no more no less).
 
Taking the fukk offer of the market is a positive harmonious process.

Five entwined processes are monitored and analyzed Just in the present.

An information group is formed over and over. Ay some point during the groupiung the unique mathematical definition (among all others) is satisfied.

In the present, "you always know that you know".

Your mind is fully differentiated in parallel with the RDBMS mathematical represntation.

It is like having a 56 word vocabulary. And further, you know that you know how sentences are constructed.

In learning the totality of the markets systematic operation, one of the neatest things that happens is, after sleep your mind supplies questions it has to deal with weakenesses in your "inference".

As those gaps are closed through your mind's steering and focussing during, for sure they show up on your daily log.

The most fun of knowing that you know is how early in the unfolding events of the combined variables of the market that you realize taking the full offer of the segment is in your sights in terms of just three sensing dacets: the space, the shape and the shape moving into its lock in shape for carving the turn.

Naturally, you code up each mathematical definition until you have all 56 in hand. The contextual background forms the gating and kills for each and every alternaative and they are funnelled out of the picture as you steer and focus on the only possible End Effect.

The Lizard syndrome is what forms the undertow of the uninformed trader's Fight of Flee (the thing that is killed for succeessful fighter pilots) that shows as fear, anxiety and anger of NOT "knowing that you know".

Intuition, like predicting, is NOT part of having the complete mental differentiation to supply full inference to sensing to always have the "knowing that you know of PERCEPTION.

Perception doesn't come and go and come back; it is there all of the time.

People grwo in trading. They usually do entry/exit trading. Once the mind can "recognize entry and exit as an identity, then and only then does the mind "shift" to hold/reversal trading.

It will be along time before the mental science of "holding" becomes part of this thread.

A holding trader simply observes (percieves continually) that a trend is continuing; then in the absense of continuing he Knowsw that he knows to do the orthogonal action of reversing to then in a moment be "continuing" on the opposite side of the market.

I use 94% of my capital from bar 1 to bar 77 or 78 of the 5 minute chart. Most traders have two sets of feelings: the sideline set and the inthe market set. for you there is no overlap of feelings.

My feelings are comfort, support and confidence.

you are out of the dogfight, in the dogfight, out of the dogfight. when I fly I make sure I cannot become subserviate to flight mnetering and dials. I use masking tape. I also fly with only thermals as my energy source. I get one tow and land at sunset.
 
Until relatively recently, human memory was perceived as one unified entity. Today, after so many advances in FMRI and in other areas of experimental neurobiology we know that there are at least two types of memory. To illustrate this let’s take a look at the following:

Knowledge about a ticker symbol of a security, the exchange it’s trading at and its latest P/E ratio are the examples of what is known as “Declarative” or “Explicit” memory. These types of memories are accessible to conscious recollection and formal (logical) description. Indeed, if someone does not know the ticker symbol of Microsoft Corporation or the list of exchanges it’s trading at we can always pull out this information out of Bloomberg terminal. However, if somebody is asking us to explain how to successfully day trade, recognize the genuine market panic or a deliberate “head fake” by someone who has a capacity to manipulate a thin market we are faced with so called “Non-declarative” or “Implicit memories”. The existence of these two independent memory systems within our brains creates the opportunity to access them separately. For example, I have not completely memorized my mother’s phone number and if someone asks me to write it on a piece of paper I would probably not be able to do it. But because I do not generally give this number to people and mostly dial it by typing it on a number pad, I am able to type it without actually knowing it. In other words, I can recall the number if I need to give it to someone by simply pretending that I type it on a key pad and write down the digits. My mother’s “forgotten” phone number is stored implicitly in my memory as a motor pattern in “Non-declarative” part of my brain.

I bet you that you will have some trouble answering the question, what key is to the left of the letter “T” on your computer keyboard? However, If I ask you to pretend typing the words “CHART” on the keyboard you can probably figure it out and your mimic typing will point to letter “R” as soon as you do it. The layout of the keyboard is stored in your “Non-declarative” memory and could be accessed by the initializing of your motor patterns stored as one of your associative memories.

In modern science both “Declarative” and “Non-declarative” forms of memory have many more subclasses but for the purpose of IAs I will only focus on those main classes. One of the interesting features of my Intuition Amplifiers is their ability to trigger the “Non-declarative” forms of memory.
 
We have billions of interconnected neurons in our brains. For the long time it has been perceived as mainly random network of neurons; a neuron soup if you will. It is now established that it is not true! As the result of latest advances in psychology and neurobiology our brains looks more and more like WWW where all the neuron connections are formed by our experiences. Just like Internet the structure of our brain connections stores our associations, feelings, sentiments, memories and influences our thoughts and decisions. And just like we use Internet we can use our associative brain structures to influence our opinions and behavior. A Canadian psychologist Donald Hebb in 1960s has proposed the idea of the associative synaptic plasticity. Developing this idea further many scientists were able to show that the associative nature of human memory was a vulnerability that could be exploited. The simple act of controversial interpretation of the news through massive repetition and media exposure could send the market into a frenzy of selling. A single juicy headline such as “Just like Lehman scandal the Cyprus bank tax will send us into the new wave of recession” will certainly grab your attention and make you think of possibly buying extra puts to protect your Long portfolio. Because you already have many links associated with your “Lehman” node that single headline will most likely trigger the structure of your neural nets and thus influence your opinion on your Buying or Selling decisions the morning after. However, as the market starts to unfold you quickly realize that that overnight “panic” is actually a good opportunity for you to buy an act on the “opening gap” pattern thus making your buying decision most likely.
 
Markets are usually compared to a poker game. However, there are many other games that can shed some light on the market’s underlying forces and, therefore, on market participants’ psychology.

Let’s take a look at the blackjack game played in casinos. What I have discovered is the “hidden” casino advantage that has lots of similarities with the market.

In the casino the dealer is your opponent and her strategy is set by the casino and cannot be changed: the dealer would continue to take cards until the sum was 17 or more, in which case she would stick. In other words, the dealer plays by the algorithm written for her by the developers of the game. What would happen if I played exactly the same game? It would occur on the surface that the probability of me winning each hand is 50% and on the long run I would neither win nor lose. However, I could have a nice evening; drink all of the free vodkas served by the lovely cocktail waitresses, have some fun and it would not cost me a dime. Also, I would catch the time that I am up and quit with a few dollars left in my pocket. Wouldn’t that be nice! Not so fast though; everybody knows that the house always has the advantage, but how? Is it because the dealers got to see your cards, but you did not get to see theirs? Is it because I have to decide whether to take a card before the dealer or not? But the strategy of sticking at 17 does not require looking at any cards other than your own, so who sees whose cards or who sees them first is irrelevant.

Well, as everybody who played this game knows if I asked for a third, fourth etc. card and it added up to more than 21 the dealer immediately would grab your money declaring that I have lost the hand. Only when no one else at the table wants another card, the dealer reveals her cards and their sum, at which point she could also bust, but if my hand is already lost it wouldn’t matter to me. Technically, if I busted and the dealer also had more than 21 we are tied. But it is not the case in the casino.

The casino’s advantage is simply that I would always lose when my hand adds up to more than 21; yet the dealer only can lose when I did not. So, according to Bayesian conditional probabilities formula there are more chances for me to lose then for the dealer.

But why is it so hard to see? Well, it is because the probabilities skew is hidden in time! The timing of the decision makes all the difference. The markets have the same hidden rule, but unlike casinos they are not immune from me exploiting it.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

Markets are usually compared to a poker game. However, there are many other games that can shed some light on the market’s underlying forces and, therefore, on market participants’ psychology.

Let’s take a look at the blackjack game played in casinos. What I have discovered is the “hidden” casino advantage that has lots of similarities with the market.

In the casino the dealer is your opponent and her strategy is set by the casino and cannot be changed: the dealer would continue to take cards until the sum was 17 or more, in which case she would stick. In other words, the dealer plays by the algorithm written for her by the developers of the game. What would happen if I played exactly the same game? It would occur on the surface that the probability of me winning each hand is 50% and on the long run I would neither win nor lose. However, I could have a nice evening; drink all of the free vodkas served by the lovely cocktail waitresses, have some fun and it would not cost me a dime. Also, I would catch the time that I am up and quit with a few dollars left in my pocket. Wouldn’t that be nice! Not so fast though; everybody knows that the house always has the advantage, but how? Is it because the dealers got to see your cards, but you did not get to see theirs? Is it because I have to decide whether to take a card before the dealer or not? But the strategy of sticking at 17 does not require looking at any cards other than your own, so who sees whose cards or who sees them first is irrelevant.

Well, as everybody who played this game knows if I asked for a third, fourth etc. card and it added up to more than 21 the dealer immediately would grab your money declaring that I have lost the hand. Only when no one else at the table wants another card, the dealer reveals her cards and their sum, at which point she could also bust, but if my hand is already lost it wouldn’t matter to me. Technically, if I busted and the dealer also had more than 21 we are tied. But it is not the case in the casino.

The casino’s advantage is simply that I would always lose when my hand adds up to more than 21; yet the dealer only can lose when I did not. So, according to Bayesian conditional probabilities formula there are more chances for me to lose then for the dealer.

But why is it so hard to see? Well, it is because the probabilities skew is hidden in time! The timing of the decision makes all the difference. The markets have the same hidden rule, but unlike casinos they are not immune from me exploiting it.
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For those who wish to examine the actual math of the game, read : "Beat the Dealer" by Thorpe.

Thorpe has also written on the markets.
 
I am a page or 2 behind,

I understand though as best as I can the idea of the person B taking advantage of person A. I took a trade (my most recent posted). Though it did not preform well, In my head it is still in play. My stop was actually too tight for the time frame I was looking at. I know what went wrong. But I loved to see the bearishness and not react to it. stops were being taken and mine was, Fine a nice loss, but I would like to think I know what happened, at least a bit more then before. (if the theory is right)

Stops I think can be seen, I remember years ago I saw a platform that showed stops on each bar. Or something along those lines. Just the fact they had it there means there may be some data we can use that others may use.

But stops are everywhere, you can see it small ones and big ones, Now I feel like there is still more to take. the uptrend may not actually be as big as we like to think when we take away the range areas. It just may be that the 2 ranges cover most of the trend,, ill have to check. This brings an new element to trading.

Person B knows what person A will do, but he may just not do it, My MM
may be waiting for me to now try again either way he is ready. If only there was some money in it for him. Its all peanuts, Peanuts are good to loose.

Person B may be after the same thing as person A following him or joining him for a show is easy. If Person A is on the right side of the market that is.

Intuition on its own gets lost. It does need some rules in general. In the sea of trades it must be open minded but at the same time realistic.
There are so many trades, I once used a Pitchfork, I used all sorts of things, they ALL look like they make sense, I could go and test each, For me that is a task and a half. Or I can follow a rule. Not to trust my eyes,
Demand more. If I need to test I try to but I choose wisely. Criterias such as :
1, Makes logical sence based on the sence I have.
2, Ease to test. manually or other
3, If I have a holy grail It should be just that.
4, If there is an edge it is somewhere. 1% here 1% there and 1% there. worst case. hopefully 70% and 30% there. Either way, each component must offer something.
5, It is quantifiable.
6. I understand the reasoning behind it.
7. I can implement it.
8. It is not based on something I feel is stupid, (unless I am corrected,a rare thing)

Too bad my intuition was not more aligned to test ideas, but I try to our source that when I can. I know the issues though.

The important thing is that you cant let your intuition handle things it cant handle. It just cant keep track and it likes colourful ideas and curiosity. Rules are needed to realign and redirect. Sure the colour has ideas, but you follow the ideas not the colour, Unless you deviate and allow colour to guide. Doing that is hole other story and a paradigm shift. It would require an AHA moment not just interesting trades.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

whoever said TA can predict the future with great accuracy?If that were the case some guy with a 20 period ema would rule the world. I find it useful for getting into and out of trends (a series of coin flips in the same direction)....:)
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If Its not good to get it it should not be good to get out, but we often lower our standers to take profit I guess. Probably a good thing as our strategy changes. Sometimes different is good or at least better.

The chart is not worth debating. It amazes me sometimes. what if the chart did the exact same thing in the next X mins and then again and again. so few points are too little to make a judgement. This could be part of a cycle or it could show a pattern that only occurs in this slice of time.

Maybe there is repeating factor in it , for me the amazing part is that the price points can be drawn in a candle form That is to say that each price point in always below distance 1% of the last price point. I guess even acoin flip does this when charted in a chart that is more then 2 units tall.
 
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