Zzzz1 often gave folks a hard time but if I were you I would think about what he said really carefully.
Best wishes to you.
Introduction and backround. I think I have a good backround to have success
- Thread starter smallcapgrowth
- Start date
Best wishes to you.
During the last 4.5 years, initial seed of 75K is now 1700K minus loan of 50K. Therefore 65K became 1650K, which is 75*(1+x)^4.5=1650.
1+x=(1/4.5)log(1650/75)
So annual compounded return rate is roughly 90%. Keep going for the rest of your life with the 90% so that you shall takes all the asset in the world
Indeed! On a related note, I am surprised nobody gave the OP a proper quiz on modern card counting. I have a few friends that have done it and it's not a profitable business any more - as I said, multiple decks with constant reshuffle, very savvy dealers and really good table observation tools make it very hard to cash in (your edge is pretty low to begin with).
Hell, nobody even scrutinized the numbers either. The OP turned 75k into 1.2m of savings over 4.5 years. That's setting aside 275 a year or so. He was also living on something, say another 50k post-tax. We are probably talking 450-500 pre-tax. I'd be challenging the possibility of taking home that much with an edge of 0.5-0.75% over the house, considering the starting capitalization. Just back of the envelope calculations, obviously
Since when is anyone on this website exposed to scrutiny. Someone questioning outrageous claims is usually shot down right away, I speak from own experience. Shills usually have two choices: (a) "corporate" shills, they appear as paid sponsors and make it appear as if being a sponsor here lends you any credibility other than the fact that you pay a small monthly amount to have that term appear under your username, if anyone questions you, point out to management and anyone who scrutinizes you is either politely asked to shut up, his/her posts removed, or the user entirely banned from the thread. (b) retail shill, if anyone questions you, attack the critical person, no need to provide details or proof of claims. Simply attack back without clarifying on what claims are based.
I think a cost of "free speech" is that a lot of bollocks enters the equation. Since the advent of social networks and blogging the amount of content has become such vast that originators are not questioned anymore or asked for proof and a basis of their claims. I believe we will get to a point where fake news cannot be suppressed anymore (as if it can now...) and people are so fed up with "free speech" that they will seek an alternative approach. Say whatever you want but Europe does take a lot more care of its citizens in regards to privacy rights, protection from libel, fake news, and the like. Google, Facebook,...would never change a thing if they were not forced to weed out fake news on their European servers. Citizens have the right to be "forgotten", meaning they can force a website operator to remove all personal references to a user. Even libel on "anonymous" forums and websites can be investigated to some degree. It may go too far for "freedom of speech" proponents but at least the amount of crap is reduced to some degree.
What really gets me is some of those snake oil salesmen to recently joined this website and make all sorts of claims about their acumen. In the same sentence they advertise their 5 thousand(!!!) courses and coaching services. When being asked for an audited track record of their past performance they get all riled up and angry and attack. It only shows that there must be so many low hanging fruit for such operators that they have nothing to fear as they apparently still generate sufficient traffic.
I think a cost of "free speech" is that a lot of bollocks enters the equation. Since the advent of social networks and blogging the amount of content has become such vast that originators are not questioned anymore or asked for proof and a basis of their claims. I believe we will get to a point where fake news cannot be suppressed anymore (as if it can now...) and people are so fed up with "free speech" that they will seek an alternative approach. Say whatever you want but Europe does take a lot more care of its citizens in regards to privacy rights, protection from libel, fake news, and the like. Google, Facebook,...would never change a thing if they were not forced to weed out fake news on their European servers. Citizens have the right to be "forgotten", meaning they can force a website operator to remove all personal references to a user. Even libel on "anonymous" forums and websites can be investigated to some degree. It may go too far for "freedom of speech" proponents but at least the amount of crap is reduced to some degree.
What really gets me is some of those snake oil salesmen to recently joined this website and make all sorts of claims about their acumen. In the same sentence they advertise their 5 thousand(!!!) courses and coaching services. When being asked for an audited track record of their past performance they get all riled up and angry and attack. It only shows that there must be so many low hanging fruit for such operators that they have nothing to fear as they apparently still generate sufficient traffic.
Indeed! On a related note, I am surprised nobody gave the OP a proper quiz on modern card counting. I have a few friends that have done it and it's not a profitable business any more - as I said, multiple decks with constant reshuffle, very savvy dealers and really good table observation tools make it very hard to cash in (your edge is pretty low to begin with).
Hell, nobody even scrutinized the numbers either. The OP turned 75k into 1.2m of savings over 4.5 years. That's setting aside 275 a year or so. He was also living on something, say another 50k post-tax. We are probably talking 450-500 pre-tax. I'd be challenging the possibility of taking home that much with an edge of 0.5-0.75% over the house, considering the starting capitalization. Just back of the envelope calculations, obviously
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Hello smallcapgrowth,
If you still want the Kaufman title recommended to you, here are all of them on Amazon:
1. Smarter Trading: Improving Performance in Changing Markets, Hardcover – January 1, 1995, Kaufman.
2. Trading With The Odds: Using the Power of Probability to Profit in the Futures Market, Hardcover – March 1, 1996, Kase
3. A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market, Hardcover – January 24, 2017, Thorp
The first 2 books are over 21 years old. Too much has changed over a generation to recommend them, especially the Kaufman title. The Internet did not even exist as we know it today. Many other books have been published. Kaufman has written the best book on Trading Systems and Methods (2013) I can find. I don't recommend his 2013 book until you are ready to write your own systems. It is 1232 pages long. He has written his systems and indicators in TradeStation - EasyLanguage. If you need the password to access his webpage, it is on page 1191 of the book. Use Amazon's "Look Inside" and Search features. TradeStation is the Cadillac of trading software:
Learning TradeStation YouTube PlayList
Download Learning TradeStation PDF files here
The Kase book deals with futures. You must also buy her (old) software to fully use her "Kase" indicators. Do not start with futures or FOREX because they are highly leveraged and therefore risky. Do not start with options either. Start with equities, stocks. Instead of daytrading, try swing trading. Investopedia has many definitions and other information you can use.
The third book's author, Edward Thorp, was interviewed in a free podcast. You can either listen to the podcast using your browser or download the MP3 and listen using your smartphone, MP3 player, car, etc...:
EP 109: The man who beat the dealer, and later, beat the market – Edward Thorp
Adam Grimes and Mike Bellafiore wrote trading books and are in free podcast interviews:
1. The Art and Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action and Trading Strategies 1st Edition by Adam Grimes
EP 021: Adam H Grimes explains how to identify a trading edge & gives a realistic breakdown of ‘the path to becoming a trader’
Download the MP3 here. Click on the "... More" button below the player and then click Download.
2. The PlayBook: An Inside Look at How to Think Like a Professional Trader 1st Edition by Mike Bellafiore
Ep. 157: Mike Bellafiore Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio, Sep 14, 2013
1. Full list of interviews with Chat With Traders.
Chat With Traders Soundcloud track list. You may need to download older interviews from here, not their main site.
2. Full list of interviews with Trend Following Radio.
3. Full list of interviews with StockTwits.
Thomas Bulkowski has written several excellent books regarding chart patterns:
1. This is the shortest and quickest to read:
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Paperback – November 6, 2012
2. Chart Patterns: After the Buy (Wiley Trading) 1st Edition
3. Trading Classic Chart Patterns 1st Edition
4. You probably should not buy this one. It is 1032 pages long:
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Hardcover – May 2, 2005
You should know something about Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF's).
1. This is the shortest and quickest to read:
Visual Guide to ETFs Paperback – January 29, 2013
2. The Institutional ETF Toolbox: How Institutions Can Understand and Utilize the Fast-Growing World of ETFs (Bloomberg Financial) Hardcover – March 7, 2016
I like the Visual Guides because they are short, to the point and in color. This makes them quicker and easier to read. I have 4 of them. I do not recommend Elliott Wave books. EW is too subjective for beginners.
Finally, here are 2 YouTube PlayLists which are excellent introductions to technical analysis. Be sure to get a 120 page spiral notebook and take notes for whichever one you study. Both are excellent:
1. Basics of Trading Video Course from InformedTrades.com
2. Financial Trading Course, by UKspreadbetting
UKspreadbetting has many interesting interviews you might be interested in:
a. How Long Did it Take to Make a Stable Income from Trading?
a. How Long Did it Take to Make a Stable Income from Trading?
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All of my posts are for educational purposes only. They are my personal opinion. They do not represent any trading advice. I am not responsible for any trading losses.
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My 5 monitor computer system.
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Card counting is alive and well. The best games in the country are complete dog shit games that take huge action. The juicy double deck games and the shoe games dealt to 26 cards aren't where the big money is. The way to make a lot of money is play the 8 deck games and the 6 deck games with 2 decks cut off. The casino knows he counting but offers a bad game to prove that u can beat them. The long run is very long on these games. Ur I would just camp out on them 10 hours a day and fade big swings. I'm 100 percent telling the truth. Anybody that doesn't beleive me can just do digging around on " smallcapgrowth blackjack on google.Indeed! On a related note, I am surprised nobody gave the OP a proper quiz on modern card counting. I have a few friends that have done it and it's not a profitable business any more - as I said, multiple decks with constant reshuffle, very savvy dealers and really good table observation tools make it very hard to cash in (your edge is pretty low to begin with).
Hell, nobody even scrutinized the numbers either. The OP turned 75k into 1.2m of savings over 4.5 years. That's setting aside 275 a year or so. He was also living on something, say another 50k post-tax. We are probably talking 450-500 pre-tax. I'd be challenging the possibility of taking home that much with an edge of 0.5-0.75% over the house, considering the starting capitalization. Just back of the envelope calculations, obviously
This actually brings me to the next question I have. Everyone said card counting was dead. I didn't beleive them and saw an inefficieny with acting skills. I investigated it myself. Everyone says pair trading isn't that good anymore. All the books I read most pro blackjack players turned trader moved on to this market nutruel approach. Why wouldn't this be the first place I look?
Thank you so fucking much I appreciate it. Thanks for taking the time and writing this stuff jus finished the ed Thorpe book.
Why are all these concepts beat. I mean im not trading huge money so I should be able to find inefficiencies in smaller markers where institutional money isn't looking cause there too big
If you trade very rarely and do good entries, you could win big just by being lucky. So any efficiencies in the markets won't care about your one lucky position. However, you could just as well be unlucky. Maybe try again, and would you have any idea how many times you would need to try to reach a certain target to offset the costs and losses? This is a way of playing the game that will get you hunting for psychological books and attempting to "fix your own mind", not trading, more like investing or just hoping.
What some of us strive for is some sort of consistency, a proven track record. First thing isn't then to run to the real tracks with big pile of wad, but practice with backtesting hypothesis, paper trading etc. This historical analysis should cover at least one decade, preferably more, and would include small-time trading just to learn execution.
To answer your question above, because the game changes every so often. Market conditions, dynamics and structure changes. This is different than blackjack, where you have some leg to stand on, in the markets it's hard to find a kind of starting point and references you can rely on. Whatever worked for 5 years could stop working in the 5 next years.
So it's not that the concepts being taught never work, far from it, but they don't work all the time and often they don't even work reliably, but only on cherry-picked samples (hindsight analysis).
If market movements theoretically were completely random and fair, nobody could ever guarantee some sort of consistency.