I don't want to post my picture on line. If anyone cares go listen to the interview. If someone cares that much I'll make a video with my picture not shown and my voice. U can tell me what to say to prove it.
Introduction and backround. I think I have a good backround to have success
- Thread starter smallcapgrowth
- Start date
Thanks so much for this just ordered the books at barns and noble couldn't get the middle tittle but I'll look for it online. I got new market wizards as well.
One important difference is that when you sit down to play Blackjack at a table with a fresh shoe you know there is a 1 in 13 chance of the first card dealt being an Ace. But in the financial markets you don't know with any degree of certainty what "cards" are in the "pack".
“The casino is the only human venture I know where the probabilities are known... and almost computable... In real life you do not know the odds, you need to discover them... ”
(from Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan)
... and you will never 'play' enough to know the odds with any certainty due to (a) the statistical properties of what is going on, and (b) since the cards in the deck are always changing and (c) the "dealer" can switch to a different deck without telling you, and (d) the metaphor of a deck is exactly that - there isn't really a big deck of hidden cards (or to be technical for a moment, latent distribution of returns) waiting to be dealt. Coping with this extra layer of uncertainty might be the biggest problem you have.
GAT
Wow this is an amazing post. I thought that was going to be the issue but I have to overcome that somehow . Logically it seems to keep bets much smaller then what would be determined then to see if ur edge isn't a real edge anymore. It seems trading is more like gaining an edge poker. The edge isn't quantifiable
Actually that's what you should do: Read. That's how most people get their trading strategy ideas from. Do some reading on technical analysis, I would concentrate on candlestick patterns, Resistance/Support (works very well in short-term trading) and trend-reading. If you want to trade stocks, you should also learn about how to read a company's financial statements and how to evaluate a company's earning potential. If you want to trade commodities or futures on commodities, you should learn what kind of news impact those markets and how those markets react to those news. If you think trading is like gambling with an edge then those give you enough "edge" in trading.
Good luck!
Actually you can get many of the books you need free from any public libraries or online. But then again I forgot you have $1.2 million so order away!
So give him/her a chance!! Everybody can be a trader. If he/she fails, then you've only got one more fodder for you to dump your position to for you to win. Remember the market is a zero-sum game. Do you REALLY want every single person who trades to be smarter than you or as smart as you?
My philosophy is everybody deserves a chance. I help them as much as I can with what I know. What they do with it is up to them. I am not the best either so I ask questions sometimes stupid ones too from time to time and if people can help me that's great if not, I take what I can get.
Because he got barred from every single big bets casinos from United States so he can't continue to do what's working anymore.
$1+ million doesn't cut it anymore in United States. You need to have at least $5 million to retire comfortably and that is without big lavish spending. With $1+ million, you still need a job or investment of some sort to make ends meet. To me, if I am single, if I REALLY don't want to deal with the hassles of the risk and just want to enjoy my life, I would invest the majority of the money in the safest instrument like T-Bills and etc. As long as the return beats inflation rate, I am good. But he/she wants a little excitement, wants to try his/her hands at trading, that's fine. To each its own!
- What the usual suspects on ET forgets/ignores is if asking anyone to tell their entire life-story, including the juicy-details, there's bound to be some unbelievable elements, synchronicity and fantastic stuff in there. In depth and/or from one perspective, there's something out of the ordinary in everyone's life-story.
- You don't need to believe anyone on forums in order to discuss trading on the merits of logic and knowledge alone, rather than anonymous credentials and achievements.
- It's more interesting when there's a spin to a story rather than "I studied hard at school, then worked hard 9-16 every day for the rest of my life".
- We don't need too much "police". We've got moderators for the obvious scams.
I even never believe people's genders online either.
Trading is very simple, you have capital and time (Buffett) or you have leverage and perfection (HFT). Everyone else including all retail, trade in the margins for 1-2% per month between the institutional and hedge fund moves fighting with the other traders, it's hard work where the input is often more than the output, and it pisses everyone off as you've noticed.
Coming from the casino, it's fast moving, the markets are perfected to provide that illusion but in reality they are so slow everyone over trades, including those making 1-2% per month. Simply, to be a millionaire you need to be in the top 99.75% of the worlds population, in trading you have a 99% failure rate for that 1-2%, that is the baseline.
The trick is the exponential yield curve and multi-dimensional timeframes, everyone uses fixed stops but there's a problem, if you don't take account of higher timeframe pressure you will be whipsawed, no one here understands that concept hence fighting to keep their capital and generate their 1-2%. I come from a very different background so don't have the cognitive dissonance traders experience, public forums magnify that.
I target 15-20% per week and made my allocation already today, seconds based charts in this micro fund, I really should go and start playing golf given spring and summer are coming. That's the point, the markets will punish you if you have less time than them. Most come in to the markets trying to use time and leverage together, not understanding they are part of two independent trading styles, it's the same as asking Google programmers to perform Carmen, it's not going to be pretty and you will wish you never paid for the ticket. Pay for the proper tickets in Verona, it's a much nicer story to have.
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