Intrade says bailout will not pass house

[killATwill]

There will be a few Dems and a lot of Repubs that vote against this one.

Intrade contract for whether the bill succeeds is trading at 20 out of 100 (implied failure rate of 80%). That's major if the intrade prediction market turns out to be correct.

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true#

The chart shows it was trading at 90, but the last trade went through at 20.

 

[dinoman]

Thats for Monday and they already said it won't be done until later in the week. That trade should be 0.

 

[killATwill]

good catch, dinoman. are yo sure they are not refering to the house by the generalist term 'congress'?

 

[sho-tim]

Yes, unclear to me whether they are talking about house or house and senate. House to vote today, senate wed? Maybe lack of clarity is why the contract is bid where it is, (currently about 14. And the contract expires tomorrow, not today.

In a related matter, europe nationalizes bradford and bingly and bails out fortis and one other. Aren't these the people (countries) that were laughing at the US last week? Why yes, I think they are.

 

[robbie380]

intrade is worthless

edit....intrade isn't as worthless as the original post. maybe the original poster could have stated the contract he is talking about ends tuesday.