Quote from Fractals 'R Us:
Polls had Democrats winning leading up to 2004 election... don't forget the Diebold factor
Oh how does the memory fail us? Of 76 polls in the last two months of 2004 election, Bush led in 64 polls, Kerry led in 5 polls, and 7 were ties. Of 18 polls in the last week before 2004 election, Bush led in 14 polls, Kerry led in 3 polls, and one was a tie. Here is a list of polls up to two months prior to 2004 election:
Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
End Date % % Bush Kerry mates?
GWU Battleground 11/1 50 46 Bush 4 N
TIPP 11/1 47 44 Bush 3 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/31 46 48 Kerry 2 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/31 49 47 Bush 2 Y
TIPP 10/31 45 44 Bush 1 N
GWU Battleground 10/31 49 45 Bush 4 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/30 46 47 Kerry 1 N
American Research Group 10/30 48 49 Kerry 1 Y
TIPP 10/30 47 42 Bush 5 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/29 47 45 Bush 2 N
Newsweek 10/29 51 45 Bush 6 Y
TIPP 10/29 45 44 Bush 1 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/28 50 45 Bush 5 N
GWU Battleground 10/28 50 45 Bush 5 N
TIPP 10/28 45 45 Tie N
TIPP 10/27 46 43 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/26 47 43 Bush 4 N
TIPP 10/25 47 42 Bush 5 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/24 52 46 Bush 6 Y
Los Angeles Times 10/24 49 48 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/24 48 41 Bush 7 N
TIPP 10/23 47 43 Bush 4 N
Newsweek 10/22 48 47 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/22 47 44 Bush 3 N
GWU Battleground 10/21 49 45 Bush 4 N
TIPP 10/21 45 45 Tie N
TIPP 10/20 45 44 Bush 1 N
TIPP 10/19 45 45 Tie N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/18 48 43 Bush 5 N
TIPP 10/18 45 45 Tie N
CBS/NYT 10/17 47 46 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/17 47 44 Bush 3 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/16 52 44 Bush 8 Y
TIPP 10/16 47 43 Bush 4 N
Newsweek 10/15 50 45 Bush 5 Y
Time 10/15 48 48 Tie Y
TIPP 10/15 47 44 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/14 47 43 Bush 4 N
GWU Battleground 10/14 49 46 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/13 46 42 Bush 4 N
Scripps Center, Ohio U. 10/13 48 47 Bush 1 N
TIPP 10/12 46 43 Bush 3 N
CBS 10/11 47 46 Bush 1 Y
ICR 10/11 49 46 Bush 3 Y
TIPP 10/11 45 44 Bush 1 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/10 48 50 Kerry 2 Y
Time 10/7 47 46 Bush 1 Y
GWU Battleground 10/7 49 46 Bush 3 N
ICR 10/5 51 46 Bush 5 Y
American Research Group 10/4 46 47 Kerry 1 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/4 48 45 Bush 3 N
CBS/NYT 10/3 48 47 Bush 1 Y
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3 49 49 Tie Y
Zogby 10/3 46 45 Bush 1 Y
GWU Battleground 9/30 52 44 Bush 8 N
Los Angeles Times 9/28 51 46 Bush 5 Y
ICR 9/28 51 43 Bush 8 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/27 45 46 Kerry 1 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/26 52 44 Bush 8 Y
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/22 45 43 Bush 2 N
Democracy Corps (D) 9/21 49 49 Tie N
Zogby 9/19 47 44 Bush 3 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 46 43 Bush 3 N
GWU Battleground 9/16 49 45 Bush 4 N
Gallup 9/15 55 42 Bush 13 Y
Democracy Corps (D) 9/14 49 48 Bush 1 N
New Democrat Network (D) 9/12 49 45 Bush 4
ICR 9/12 52 44 Bush 8 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/12 47 47 Tie N
Zogby 9/9 47 45 Bush 2 Y
Time 9/9 54 42 Bush 12 Y
Democracy Corps (D) 9/9 50 47 Bush 3 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/8 47 45 Bush 2 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/5 52 45 Bush 7 Y
ICR 9/5 48 47 Bush 1 Y
Time 9/2 53 43 Bush 10 Y
Zogby 9/2 46 44 Bush 2 Y
American Research Group 9/1 48 47 Bush 1 N