Intraday Trend Following

[padutrader]

Most price moves in a trend are not instantaneous reversals into the opposite trend.

I would say that 85% of all price moves, intraday, are moves not in trend.
it is simply higher probability to assume there is no trend.....but that is forex majors.
stock markets similar ...but the probability may not be so high.
this is because forex charts are essentially relative strength charts......but when the two continuously diverge the chart can trend quite spectacularly

 

[easymon1]

Recent simulations indicate a positive expectancy.

mr fractalize, let me know what you think of this expectancy presentation pls?
cued up, here we go

 

[tomorton]

I would say that 85% of all price moves, intraday, are moves not in trend.
it is simply higher probability to assume there is no trend.....but that is forex majors.
stock markets similar ...but the probability may not be so high.
this is because forex charts are essentially relative strength charts......but when the two continuously diverge the chart can trend quite spectacularly

Yes, I don't disagree. Most of the time, price is not moving in a trend. Many people say only 20-25% of the time. Which makes trend reversals - from up to down, or from down to up - all the more uncommon.

When price is in a trend, there are if I remember rightly, 7 things price can do next - the most common of which is simply continue, the least common of which is immediately reverse. But price must be in a trend in the first place or this rationale is inapplicable. Price cannot reverse trend direction if it is not in a trend.

 

[Turveyd]

I would say that 85% of all price moves, intraday, are moves not in trend.
it is simply higher probability to assume there is no trend.....but that is forex majors.
stock markets similar ...but the probability may not be so high.
this is because forex charts are essentially relative strength charts......but when the two continuously diverge the chart can trend quite spectacularly

Forex used to be 80% chop, then it went DEAD and moved to Index's, just checked GPBUSD and it's picked up and quite trendy these days.

 

[Turveyd]

Yes, I don't disagree. Most of the time, price is not moving in a trend. Many people say only 20-25% of the time. Which makes trend reversals - from up to down, or from down to up - all the more uncommon.

When price is in a trend, there are if I remember rightly, 7 things price can do next - the most common of which is simply continue, the least common of which is immediately reverse. But price must be in a trend in the first place or this rationale is inapplicable. Price cannot reverse trend direction if it is not in a trend.

News can and will create an immediate reversal, but it's still rare, news generally has a way to going with the Trend like the news is already known before hand.

It's easy to trade counter trend and hard to trust just joining the trend, which is why most retail fail.

 

[padutrader]

Yes, I don't disagree. Most of the time, price is not moving in a trend. Many people say only 20-25% of the time. Which makes trend reversals - from up to down, or from down to up - all the more uncommon.

When price is in a trend, there are if I remember rightly, 7 things price can do next - the most common of which is simply continue, the least common of which is immediately reverse. But price must be in a trend in the first place or this rationale is inapplicable. Price cannot reverse trend direction if it is not in a trend.

yep
what does it do the balance 75%, when it is not in a trend?

it is in a channel. and in any educational course this subject of channels is mostly not dealt with or only a page is given to it. no wonder most traders lose money.

this 75% is what traders focus the least upon. they are forever searching for a trend, the easy money.

and missing what is really the easy money.

 

[padutrader]

quite trendy these days

I prefer chop....it is far more predictable..... the stops are tighter so you can trade larger volumes

 

[Turveyd]

I prefer chop....it is far more predictable..... the stops are tighter so you can trade larger volumes

I don't cause when chop turns to trend against me, I figure it just needs more room and more room then I end up taking a huge less, which looks like it's going to turn back my way and reverses on me, cause I'm counter trend.

 

[padutrader]

It's easy to trade counter trend and hard to trust just joining the trend, which is why most retail fail.

the fact is if you are trading 5 min which is what most intraday traders do, you have to be very precise in your entries and exits.
this it took me 13 years to do.
which person is going to or even be able to, stick to something for that long without earing anything to sustain that activity, unless backed with independent finance.
this is the real reason traders fail in short term trading.
in longer term you have to be inactive for maybe 60% of time...... to wait for trends. which again is hugely difficult to do.

 

[Deez]

I prefer chop....it is far more predictable..... the stops are tighter so you can trade larger volumes

If one is trading equities calculating the previous 10 days Open to High and Open to Low independently is the first place to start. Then try to capture ~70% of the average up and down day moves (long above open/short below open). Calling it trend or chop is semantics if you think in terms of ADR. You’re going to see the majority of the move during the first 2 hours when volume is high.