Intraday/Swing Plays

Blue Chips Rise

Mixed corporate news led to mixed markets. Microsoft (MSFT,57,f1) fell short of earnings expectations, while Sun Microsystems (SUNW) reported better than expected results. Compaq (CPQ) and International Paper (IP,42) also beat the Street, while Treasuries finished slightly lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52 points (0.5%) to 10,257, the S&P 500 index was up a fraction of a point (0.1%) to 1125, but the Nasdaq Composite slid 6 points (0.3%) to 1797. Basic materials and brokerage stocks paced the gainers while networking and telecommunications shares led the losers. Volume on the Big Board was 1.2 billion shares as 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 index gained 1.3% and the Nasdaq was 2.3% higher.


It has been somewhat difficult for me make much money over the last week and half. My first objective was to get my Open P&L down without closing positions at severe losses. I've been able to get the Open P&L down from roughly $15K to about $3K. With that accomplished am going to research and try to identify either a particular trend or sector that I think has untapped upside and try to steer away from the heard. I might not find one but I'm looking. I'm also going to start building my futures trading model and begin regression testing and see how this pans out and begin tweaking my "strategy". Hope everyone has a good weekend!
 
when i noticed that at one point your open positions were down over 12K i assumed the goal might be to pare this down a bit.

you skillfully (and with a little luck, i assume) did this.

would you give us some insight in how you accomplished this feat? would help us if we could understand what were you looking for as you observed the price & market behaviour?

thanks for the ongoing thread.
 
Originally posted by FasterPussycat
when i noticed that at one point your open positions were down over 12K i assumed the goal might be to pare this down a bit.

you skillfully (and with a little luck, i assume) did this.

would you give us some insight in how you accomplished this feat? would help us if we could understand what were you looking for as you observed the price & market behaviour?

thanks for the ongoing thread.
More...

I certainly needed a little luck amongst other initiatives to scale down that open P&L. The main reason I stayed in those overall losing positions is due to my TA and fundamental analysis when I opened those positions. This the biggest difference between day and swing trading. If those were daytrades I would have closed out at a significant loss and moved on. This sounds dumb, but there's a "peace of mind" I have when I open each position and I stand firm behind my trades. Now, I'm not suicidal either. If I make a call and it turns against me big time, I will swallow my pride and bail. I now have the luxury of using looser stops compared to my first years as a trader which has given me leverage in the long run. Of all my trades executed since I have started posting on this board, my recent INTC short play was the most speculative. I will trade off earnings every now and then if I think I have that edge.
I also found a few opportunities intraday to trade that helped me knock the open p&l down a tad. I wasn't looking to trade just because, however there were a few isolated opportunities I recognized and played them.
Finally, I scaled out partially of a couple positions at a loss that were exposing me to heavily on the short side of the market. I wasn't quite sure short term which way the market was heading so I wanted to balance my positions more evenly, then let the market tip it's hand and trade accordingly.

Hope I answered your question.
 
Terrible Telecom

The telecom sector continues to struggle. Lucent Technologies' (LU) lackluster earnings report and WorldCom Group's (WCOM) reduced guidance and cap ex plans are pressuring stocks in pre-market activity, although 3M Co.'s (MMM) better-than-expected earnings release is buffering some of the weakness. Treasuries are slightly lower, and world markets are mixed, with European bourses dragged down by Ericsson's (ERICY) dismal outlook.

Shares of Lucent Technologies are lower in the pre-market session after the company posted a 2Q loss before items of $0.20 per share on revenue of $3.52 billion, worse than First Call's $0.17 per share and $3.57 billion consensus estimates, respectively. Lucent said it will spin off its remaining stake in Agere Systems (AGRA) in June and hinted at more restructuring efforts, including 6,000 more job cuts, in an attempt to return to profitability by fiscal 2003.

On Friday after the bell, WorldCom Inc. reduced 2002 guidance, saying that it now expects its telephone and data services unit, WorldCom Group, to post EBIDTA of $7.0-7.5 billion and revenue of $21-21.5 billion, below its previous respective $8.4-8.5 billion and $22.2-22.6 billion forecasts. The company also cut its 2002 cap ex plans to $4.5 billion from its prior $5.0-5.5 billion estimate.

Citing successful cost-cutting efforts, diversified manufacturer and Dow component 3M Co. said 1Q profits excluding items rose to $1.23 per share, surpassing the Street's mean $1.19 per share estimate. Going forward, 3M said it expects FY02 profits between $4.85 and $5.10 per share, generally in line with the Street's $4.80-5.15 per share estimate.
 
Expect a continued morning selloff due to International uncertainties. Crude oil is a great measure of this uncertaintity since it directly correlates with the Middle East and South American trouble areas. Oil service stocks track closely with crude (OSX) which is now challenging highs. Take a look at a 30 minute candle chart on OSX to look for breakout signals and watch if it remains in the current trading range.

IMO-

SANM - Buy
Stop: $10.50
Target: $13.75
Double-bottomed

ORCL - Buy
Stop: $11.00 area (Use tight stops on this one)
Target: $13.50
MACD divergence has confirmed oversold pattern.

IMPH - Short
Stop: $30.00
Target: $15.00 (Long term)
 
Picked up a bunch at $17.35

Bio's been sold off hard the past couple of days. Looking to unload in the next few days between 18 and 19.

Any thoughts on a bio spike in the coming days?
 
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