Intraday/Swing Plays

Blue Monday

Stocks were pounded at the market open following an earnings and revenue warning from tech heavyweight IBM (IBM), but positive news out of the software sector helped lead a slow recovery and stocks finished the day generally higher. Wholesale inventories fell in February and bond prices were lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23 points (0.2%) to 10,249, the S&P 500 index gained 3 points (0.2%) to 1125, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 16 points (0.9%) to 1786. Without IBM, the DJIA would have finished with a 46 point gain. PC, telecom and airline shares paced the losers while software, retail and oil related shares stood out to the upside. Volume on the Big Board was 1.1 billion shares as 1.6 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.

TODAYS EXECUTIONS:

13:13:46 MSFT BOT 2000 55.55
12:56:47 PFE SHRT 2000 38.08
11:32:31 FWC BOT 5000 2.75

OPEN POSITIONS:

Long FWC 5000 2.75 +0.07
Short TLAB 3000 9.68 -0.17
Long PALM 5000 4.01 -0.57
Short PFE 2000 38.08 -0.39
Long .PQODY 20 1.60 -1.25
Long MO 2000 53.52 -1.19

CLOSED P&L: $2,600 OPEN P&L: ($8,670)
TOTAL CLOSED P&L: $39,359
 
Originally posted by Seanote

I'm not sure if the board reads these posts on my mkt commentary and swing plays. Should I keep posting this type of info or am I creating unecessary reads? Thanks.
More...


Seanote - this thread has 28,000+ views! Your posts are obviously very popular here....

I agree with the others -- please keep posting, and thanks. :)
 
Compaq Boosts Stocks

Compaq's (CPQ) increased revenue guidance and Saudi Arabia's assurances that it will fill any void in the global crude supply on the heels of Iraq's embargo endeavor are giving stocks a slight boost in pre-market activity. Bond prices are virtually unchanged in the absence of any significant economic news and markets overseas are mixed. However, futures are relatively flat as open nears.

Emphasizing market share gains in its health care, education, and travel markets, No. 2 PC maker Compaq Computer offered upbeat 1Q guidance after the bell last night, saying that it expects revenue of $7.7 billion, ahead of First Call's $7.6 billion consensus forecast. Compaq also said it expects to meet or beat the Street's mean $0.01 per share profit estimate.


Plays to follow...
 
This time it was the bears who were frustrated as the market digested yesterday's bad news very well. While the big cap market averages are still below resistance, smaller cap averages were able to close at 4 day highs. WATCH DELL AND KO! Dell was able to shrug off IBMs bad news yesterday and followed up nicely. It is very close to breaking a 3 week trading range. KO enjoyed another nice rally and continues to set highs. Yesterday's huge bullish engulfing pattern is a strong positive.

These are not recommendations:

SBUX - Buy
Stop: $23.25
Target: $26.75
Monday's close was high for the year generating a strong up trend.

BLS - Short
Stop: $39.10
Target: $27.25
Virtually all support has been penetrated and heavy downside is anticipated.

XEL - Short
Stop: $26.00
Target: $23.25
Broke down after forming a short term top. No support until $23.25.
 
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of SBUX yesterday.
I requested the report (dated 4/5/02), and it looks very good.

The MS target is $26, and the rating is "Overweight".

Very strong financials. IBD=99=A+
 
Long 5,000 CSCO @ 15.45

IMO - This is a terrific buying opportunity! Might pull back a bit more but I feel confident I'll pull 1 - 1 3/4 points on this play over the next few weeks if need be.
 
Earnings Jitters Re-emerge

Large-cap technology shares led the major indices lower despite raised guidance from Compaq Computer (CPQ). Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO) and Intel (INTC) alone were responsible for nearly half of the decline in the S&P 500.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 40 points (0.4%) to 10,209, the S&P 500 index dropped 8 points (0.7%) to 1118, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 43 points (2.4%) to 1743. energy and computer shares paced the losers while chemical and airline stocks stood out among the gainers. Volume on the Big Board was 1.2 billion shares as 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.



TODAY'S EXECUTIONS:

11:33:15 CSCO BOT 5000 15.45
11:31:11 SBUX BOT 2000 24.41

OPEN POSITIONS:

Long SBUX 2000 24.41 +0.52
Long FWC 5000 2.75 +0.22
Short TLAB 3000 9.68 -0.08
Long PALM 5000 4.01 -0.40
Long CSCO 5000 15.45 -0.63
Short PFE 2000 38.08 -0.65
Long MO 2000 53.52 -1.19
Long .PQODY 20 1.60 -1.50

CLOSED P&L: $0 OPEN P&L: ($9,930)
TOTAL CLOSED P&L: $39,359
 
Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

US equity index futures are pointing to a higher open as earnings reporting season gets under way, with Genentech (DNA) matching profit expectations. (I'm glad I dumped that stock last week!) US Treasuries are lower as no economic reports are scheduled for release today, and world markets are higher.

Genentech reported 1Q operating earnings of $0.22 per share, matching First Call estimates, on a 14% revenue gain to $613.4 million, as results were fueled by strong gains for its cancer drug Rituxan, which saw a 44% sales increase. Genentech stated it is comfortable with analysts' $0.91 per share 2002 profit estimates. Fellow drugmaker Idec Pharmaceuticals (IDPH), who co-markets Rituxan, forecast 1Q earnings of $0.17 per share, a penny ahead of the Street consensus.

Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) are lower in pre-market activity after it reported a 4Q operating loss of $0.14 per share, slightly better than First Call's $0.15 loss estimate, on a 26% sales decline. However, the company increased fiscal 1Q earnings loss projections to $0.18-0.22 per share from $0.10-0.12 per share.

SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) posted 1Q operating earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 higher than analysts' Street estimates, as expense control measures boosted results. Net income fell 9.7%, however, mainly due to acquisition costs and bad loans surrounding the Enron (ENRNQ,0.29,f1) debacle.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the SEC may file civil charges against two former Xerox Corp. (XRX) executives and a partner at its auditor KPMG (KCIN). The news follows last week's announcement that Xerox would pay a $10 million fine to settle an SEC accounting inquiry

I highlighted DELL yesterday as it was close to a significant upside breakout. DELL did breakout but faded and ended down on the day. DELLs troubles were typical of big cap stocks. DELL could offer a key insight into the markets performance as it has dipped to support.

VOD - Short
Stop: $18.50
Target: $14.25
Virtually all support has been penetrated and further downside is expected.
 
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