Quote from Tonkadad:
The point that I get out of the baseball analogy is that the behavior of price, at certain times, has characteristic's similar to the "the ball connecting with a sweet pitch".
If I show you a picture of a baseball in the air (approx. 20 feet above the ground) with no other info would you be able to tell which direction it is going to go next? You wouldn't be able too, you could guess, but with just a picture of the ball in the air you don't know if it is still on an upward trajectory, at the absolute peak of it's upward momentum (therefore technically neither moving up or down for a split second) or if it is falling back down.
Now what if you could mark snapshots of the balls flight pattern behind the ball (on the same picture mentioned above) so you could see where it was and the arc of its trajectory, would that help you to have an idea of where the ball is in relation to the cycle of what happens when a baseball is hit in the air? The momentum? Whats going to happen next?
Are the snapshots that trail the ball lagging, I could see it that way. Are they critical to know the future path of the ball, they would be to me.
Do indicators that are derived from price lag, by there very nature they have too, does that mean they have no value? How much do they lag?
On a 3 minute chart are we talking micro-seconds, seconds, minutes?
Obviously without different opinions we couldn't have a market to trade in, but what I don't get is why if someone says they use this or that in there trading and they are successful by using it, why we wouldn't congratulate them. What difference does it make how they succeed?
What is the reason for being on a trading forum? My reason is to learn more, help others with my experiences, socialise with like minded people.
Lucrum are your reasons for being on this board much different from mine?
You get the point and let me elaborate.
The behavior of price, half of the time (price pivots of support), has characteristics similar to "the ball connecting with the bat". The exact opposite applies to pivots of resistance. Sometimes the ball being hit will result in a single, double, triple, home run or foul balls. In all cases the slit second after the ball is hit we can see the direction. We have no way of predicting the specific outcome but that isn't necessary. We can, by tracking the trajectory, see when the directional move as been exhausted when the slope of the trajectory goes from pushing the ball higher to pushing the ball lower.
Now take this analogy and apply it to a chart.
If one can find or create an indicator that will show the creation of a support pivot in real time then as soon as this pivot is confirmed the trader knows price will move up until the slope of the trajectory of the bar breaks its upward move by breaking through previous bar lows. Depending on the chart resolution, the lag of one single bar is minuscule compared to the overall distance of each trade. Profit is made from the split second after support pivot is created and one enters the trade to the point the directional slope goes from pushing price from making new highs to dropping price to making new lows.
Add to this on top of ones ability to see the longer term direction of price on that particular chart and trading is now fun. Some trades last longer than others, making them more profitable. The other extreme is that some don't last long at all but even on short trades that the slope gives up quickly, the potential of a loss is diminished greatly giving the trader the safety of always having small losing trades for when there is a loss.
Hershey does this using price bars during RTH & a volume indicator, I do this using price bars and a single confirming indicator and I have seen others do this using naked price bars. I simply prefer my way because I like the having something to confirm pivot direction and trend. Hershey's method works for others but I don't like eliminating the overnight data and those using naked bars are truly good but they are, for the most part, shorter term traders which I prefer to stay away from.
You nailed it with the comment, "Obviously without different opinions we couldn't have a market to trade in . . . " There are many ways to profit from the charts and it is that variety that creates the volatility most of us love to extract our profits from.
Thanks for the civil and well thought out comments.