Intraday FX Player
- Thread starter CFerret
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Quote from tom123:
whats an FTT ?
Ah it's Jack Hershey term from Spy's threads... Not really related to how we trade in this thread...
I was joking actually (though according to Jack's method it really was an FTT - fail to traverse, it's when price doesn't reach the other side of the channel and reverses which meant strength in our case)...
CF..... how do you play a situation like the new york open today....waiting for the NFP news....knowing that it could cause that spike in some direction..... and the place where it was set to blow.... right on the fault line at 15595....was critical in the big picture..... am I right? I saw that the bottom line at 15575 area was holding.... more experience would tell me what Yoohoo saw.... (was that 3 touches?4?) and held strong.... I watched, knowing that it was critical for euro to stay Above 15570...... and here comes the new york open which if the NFP news was strong dollar would have crashed the euro down .....where to...?? My trendlines showed 15520....but also 155....but then that brings euro back to the further edge of a cliff.... that is overlooking a plunge into 154/53/52/and 50 area. which it just pulled out from...... so it was fascinating to see where the london session set up new york at the brink of the edge....which is my way of looking at it.
....Did you see ahead of time a direction for today? I saw you were thinking down and yoohoo saw it looking up. My trendline drawing was strong UP ... right exactly to where the blast off went. and some potential to continue working up to 15745.
But my question...(cause I'll be there someday)..... how do you set up to make the play when you know something big will happen. but cant be certain up or down.
I think I would have placed a trade at 15590....with a stop loss of 15570.... so I would risk losing in one second.... 20 pips.... but the reward if I guessed right was a take profit exactly at 15665.... that would have been my play.
and I would have risked the 20 pips loss down.... how else would you play a moment like that?
Did anyone notice the precise time the blast off happened. I set my vertical line at 830am new york time..... but it looked to me like it took off about 1 or 2 minutes earlier....827 ? 828 ? did anyone see that ??
....Did you see ahead of time a direction for today? I saw you were thinking down and yoohoo saw it looking up. My trendline drawing was strong UP ... right exactly to where the blast off went. and some potential to continue working up to 15745.
But my question...(cause I'll be there someday)..... how do you set up to make the play when you know something big will happen. but cant be certain up or down.
I think I would have placed a trade at 15590....with a stop loss of 15570.... so I would risk losing in one second.... 20 pips.... but the reward if I guessed right was a take profit exactly at 15665.... that would have been my play.
and I would have risked the 20 pips loss down.... how else would you play a moment like that?
Did anyone notice the precise time the blast off happened. I set my vertical line at 830am new york time..... but it looked to me like it took off about 1 or 2 minutes earlier....827 ? 828 ? did anyone see that ??
One other thing I noticed.... which I wasnt expectiong, from what Ive heard.... the broker (mine is oanda) but is that most brokers? ....dont they usually increase the spread right before big news releases??...... I saw that my oanda spread was still 2 pips ...when the euro blasted off at the NFP release.
whats the norm?
whats the norm?
...leaving me to clean up the mess.....!!!
Tom,
I played NFP just as I'd trade any other time... Was it a bit of a gamble? Maybe...
But I noticed over time, that technicals often give signals in advance to where the price will go after news... I think it's because smart money is a serious power in the markets...
Would be naive to consider that all participants get the news data at the same time as we, retail pikers...
So obviously there are some movements before and they can be seen with TA.
That's why I had a 5min long signal and just longed... The only difference is I increased stop a bit assuming there can be some noise.
What would be if news went the other way? Well, the worst case I'd get stopped out with some slippage. But it's less than in 50% cases.
In the rest I get reward several times the risk, so it's worth it...
Hope it helps...
I played NFP just as I'd trade any other time... Was it a bit of a gamble? Maybe...
But I noticed over time, that technicals often give signals in advance to where the price will go after news... I think it's because smart money is a serious power in the markets...
Would be naive to consider that all participants get the news data at the same time as we, retail pikers...
So obviously there are some movements before and they can be seen with TA.
That's why I had a 5min long signal and just longed... The only difference is I increased stop a bit assuming there can be some noise.
What would be if news went the other way? Well, the worst case I'd get stopped out with some slippage. But it's less than in 50% cases.
In the rest I get reward several times the risk, so it's worth it...
Hope it helps...
Tom, try to take it slow with this method, I'm trying this for several months already and have some previous experience trading and it seems like you are allready trying to jump in front of me. Even at this stage I don't see probably half of what Yoohoo sees, but I am consistant and making regular profits and things are progressing well. My advice is to start with trading the way CF did in the beginning of this journal mainly focusing on the 5 min, soon things will become clearer, you won't have all the trades in this journal but you will be gradaully seeing more and more. Yoohoo advised my to use four charts to start with: 60, 30, 15 and 5. Just start with that and take a few weeks to get used to this. Big trades will be the exception, not the rule at that point. From that moment on it's time gradually build on that to incorporate more and more charts of other timeframes. Even after several months you won't be able to perfectly incoporate all these charts, I can't at this moment, but I am willing to take another few months to improve my reading of all these timeframes. It's two steps forward, one step back in trying to learn this game, you can't rush it.
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