Intraday FX Player
- Thread starter CFerret
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Ok the 1 hr is doing what was the most likely thing and took the downside before the 4 hr takes over and swings us up.
CV your trade was perfect but if you believe (and you gotta make up your own mind) that the 1 hr is calling lower, then countertrend trading means you must be real nimble. NEVER get attached to a trade. You were correct... for a few minutes/bars whatever. When it's correct to reverse do it, especially when you're against the trend.
We had several great no-brainer trades within the T/L's but if you just took the top and waited for the swing lower, you held the aces for the T/L break.
This pattern is very negative - any pattern trader would call the market lower and that would be their feeling. Howevey with the 4 hr potential for higher it could over ride the 1 hr and take us up fooling the market.
We don't need to know every outcome, just take the obvious trade on the 1 min (or 5 min) and keep an eye on the structure of the 1 hr and the bigger structural picture (I use the squashed 1 min chart) in mind.
See chart...
CV your trade was perfect but if you believe (and you gotta make up your own mind) that the 1 hr is calling lower, then countertrend trading means you must be real nimble. NEVER get attached to a trade. You were correct... for a few minutes/bars whatever. When it's correct to reverse do it, especially when you're against the trend.
We had several great no-brainer trades within the T/L's but if you just took the top and waited for the swing lower, you held the aces for the T/L break.
This pattern is very negative - any pattern trader would call the market lower and that would be their feeling. Howevey with the 4 hr potential for higher it could over ride the 1 hr and take us up fooling the market.
We don't need to know every outcome, just take the obvious trade on the 1 min (or 5 min) and keep an eye on the structure of the 1 hr and the bigger structural picture (I use the squashed 1 min chart) in mind.
See chart...
I mean the one just below 1.5670.
Perfect Idea....I DO have a gameplan for today... Its 930 pm california....and I believe London opens in a few hours.....Ive drawn a complete trendline spiderweb starting at feb 7.... spent 2 hours drawing and studying it.
The basic range for today would look to be about... H 1.5750-70
to L 1.5530......but longer (and stronger?) trendlines could drop the euro down still, to 1.55....then down even to 1.5450 ...dont know if that would be today all in one day but the lines are there.
The last 3 hours PA has moved sideways into a triangle terminal at 1.56 85...and in a timing that is heading for blast off in the London open.....my guess would be down trend...... as part of the greater wave from Feb 7 and the last low (anchor) at 1.5350
The 'money controllers' said they dont want an overly strong euro....and I believe they are pushing it down in this way now. Logic would indicate a big retrace up now back to 1.59....but there has been little force the last 3 hours....maybe opening session in London will blast it off. but My trendline show strong resistance along the way..... at 1.5713,... 1.5750.... and maybe up to 1.57 75..... if it gets past those levels there could develop the power to come back.... but the trendlines from 1.60 and recent days are still aiming down....and even down to 1.54 area in a worst case. ....but my basic range as I say is H 1.5750-70 and L 1.55 00-30. with chopping in between at S/R levels to play with. I would be cautious about wanting or expecting Euro to jump up to 1.58 and above......
I could be completely wrong ,of course, and I'm far from expert yet, but I drew all the lines and they are pointing down some more. or at least holding around 1.57
The basic range for today would look to be about... H 1.5750-70
to L 1.5530......but longer (and stronger?) trendlines could drop the euro down still, to 1.55....then down even to 1.5450 ...dont know if that would be today all in one day but the lines are there.
The last 3 hours PA has moved sideways into a triangle terminal at 1.56 85...and in a timing that is heading for blast off in the London open.....my guess would be down trend...... as part of the greater wave from Feb 7 and the last low (anchor) at 1.5350
The 'money controllers' said they dont want an overly strong euro....and I believe they are pushing it down in this way now. Logic would indicate a big retrace up now back to 1.59....but there has been little force the last 3 hours....maybe opening session in London will blast it off. but My trendline show strong resistance along the way..... at 1.5713,... 1.5750.... and maybe up to 1.57 75..... if it gets past those levels there could develop the power to come back.... but the trendlines from 1.60 and recent days are still aiming down....and even down to 1.54 area in a worst case. ....but my basic range as I say is H 1.5750-70 and L 1.55 00-30. with chopping in between at S/R levels to play with. I would be cautious about wanting or expecting Euro to jump up to 1.58 and above......
I could be completely wrong ,of course, and I'm far from expert yet, but I drew all the lines and they are pointing down some more. or at least holding around 1.57
nexx, fwiw I hate taking a break like that because I consider it the last entry point for a poor trader. I want lots of pips in the bag and ride through it. Often there's a swing back to the T/L that stops you out and the you're stuffed.
If you can get the set up inside the pattern you can aslo trade the swing back to the T/L break... it might even be a false break and go thru the roof.
We don't want to be pattern traders here, it'a getting down and dirty on the 1 min and an eye on the 1/4 hr that makes the real â¬â¬â¬$$$
My trendlines are still holding up the big picture I saw....The triangle terminal is very tight right here at 1.56.80 and holding ,waiting for London to open. I dont know which way it will go but it could crash back to yesterday's low and then dive more ,like a repeat of yesterday. down to 155 area.
If it goes up, there is strong resistance at 1.57,1.5715,1.5745,1.5770....and my trendlines werent looking up. strong trendline for the first breakout if it drops down would be looking at yesterdays low. 1.56 37 area in Londons opening hour. but could happen any time now I suppose.
If it goes up, there is strong resistance at 1.57,1.5715,1.5745,1.5770....and my trendlines werent looking up. strong trendline for the first breakout if it drops down would be looking at yesterdays low. 1.56 37 area in Londons opening hour. but could happen any time now I suppose.
OMG sorry Yoohoo.... I wish I could add pics and screenshots. I'm so new at this I dont know how....I know that sound awful.... I hope tolearn how to do that soon ... all basic trendlines as you draw them. but especially a convergence from the high of april 16 area and april ...22? the 160 top..... ,also the ...well I'm sure you would see what the trendlines show. but these same trendlines on april 16 were showing a blast up thru 1.60 on the 17th but the money controllers' (IMO) wanted the price drop so they intervened there and may be doing it now even. be careful of those tricks is what I say.... logic says the euro is going back up,but it and the trendlines said that on the 16/17th as well,unless I'm wrong. the countertrend here is to see what the big boy bankers want ....and do what they want....but I cant write more or I'll just confuse myself at this point. lol
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