Intraday FX Player
- Thread starter CFerret
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Yes, and of course the policy depending on the economics. USD and GBP both have another wave of bad news coming from housing / credit probs, Eur doesn't have this problem. Thats his opinion and of course I think he's smart cause it's also mine. Cherry picking ideas is always dangerous but one has to have macro view. His info is much better than mine so I'm happy to hear he agrees.
that's very very nice..
BJ, trading locally have a lot of advantage for me I guess, the time zone, means having sleep before market hours, and a social life after that...
It's also comfortable for me, it's a local products, the services behind it is much greater I guess (choices of local broker, broker interface, local data providers etc)
cool, when he mentions "opposing dynamics have no obvious resolution", i thought that he would faces opposition being in the market for profits normally, while policy actions would means totally different things..
BJ you use a lot of Fundamentals, to give a sense of where da market is moving rite?
I always trade within an "umbrella" of macro fundementals, it can be very meaningless in individual stocks, ( I don't trade stocks), and have a lot of meaning to Indexes but to FX the macro econ fundies are everything. The really interesting thing about fx is that they are pairs so there can only be one opposite view, one has to rise and one has to fall. The trap in FX is not being able to properly interpert the fundies. Properly being defined as interperting them the same way as the market does.
For example, the German #'s came in as expected, not lower which would have provided Trichet some breathing room, now he doesn't know if inflation is up or down so they look to next bit of info. The mkt is always hungry for info. Today there is the USD case- shiller index( home prices),new home sales, consumer confidence. These will affect the USD driving the EUR value in the opposing direction. Then tom there is German import prices. EUR current account,German cpi and BOJ Shirakawa. The pair reacting to every announcement. The mkt doesn't move unless there is a reason for it to move, these #'s are the reasons. Another EURO guy on bloomie going about the FX trade, nobody knows what to do,lol
edit: BOJ will signal wether or not the carry trade is still viable.
For example, the German #'s came in as expected, not lower which would have provided Trichet some breathing room, now he doesn't know if inflation is up or down so they look to next bit of info. The mkt is always hungry for info. Today there is the USD case- shiller index( home prices),new home sales, consumer confidence. These will affect the USD driving the EUR value in the opposing direction. Then tom there is German import prices. EUR current account,German cpi and BOJ Shirakawa. The pair reacting to every announcement. The mkt doesn't move unless there is a reason for it to move, these #'s are the reasons. Another EURO guy on bloomie going about the FX trade, nobody knows what to do,lol
edit: BOJ will signal wether or not the carry trade is still viable.
Hi guys... bummer I missed that one - was stalking it but had to go out to get more hardware and have to leave again in a few mins.
Posted a 1 min (left) 1 hr (mid) and day (right)
I was watching how 1 hr closes stayed above the hr EMTL then was looking for a poss final touch on the top EMTL.
See the horns on the 1 min
The day channel is as I posted on Fri.
CF when the top broke and triggered on the 15 min it's a perfect reversal candle - those guys want paid now.
The 5 min candle was not so clear but the bar chart gave a good signal if you were aware it was top zone.
CF to stay in look at the CCI on the 5 min - this is a top to bottom move to about 735 before reversing. When you saw the 15 min reverse signal it was a safe hold on the 5 min... then the 30 min and the hr candles triggered as you would have held. Use the CCI top to bottom when a big reverse is due.
The secret lies in having an expectation that is confirmed AFTER the move commences. Reading the roll over is how you build up confidence along with the quality of the bars - nice fluid bars.
The red dotted line on the Hr is the daily EMTL that I posted on Fri. The hourly closed on this line.
Posted a 1 min (left) 1 hr (mid) and day (right)
I was watching how 1 hr closes stayed above the hr EMTL then was looking for a poss final touch on the top EMTL.
See the horns on the 1 min
The day channel is as I posted on Fri.
CF when the top broke and triggered on the 15 min it's a perfect reversal candle - those guys want paid now.
The 5 min candle was not so clear but the bar chart gave a good signal if you were aware it was top zone.
CF to stay in look at the CCI on the 5 min - this is a top to bottom move to about 735 before reversing. When you saw the 15 min reverse signal it was a safe hold on the 5 min... then the 30 min and the hr candles triggered as you would have held. Use the CCI top to bottom when a big reverse is due.
The secret lies in having an expectation that is confirmed AFTER the move commences. Reading the roll over is how you build up confidence along with the quality of the bars - nice fluid bars.
The red dotted line on the Hr is the daily EMTL that I posted on Fri. The hourly closed on this line.
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