Your spouse (wife?) put up with you learning to trade for 5 years? Did she doubt you at any point during that period?
Last edited:
Interviews With Top ET Traders
- Thread starter JTrades
- Start date
Your spouse (wife?) put up with you learning to trade for 5 years? Did she doubt you at any point during that period?
Thought I would keep this thread alive by posting this old interview I did with my friend and business mentor James Altucher. Many of you may know him by his blog and he use to post on elite quite often until driven away by the a$$clowns and malcontents.
His experiences he outline on his blog read like fiction, but having worked with him a deal or two, and knowing him long before he became famous, I assure you everything he says is 100% accurate. Lot's to learn here-- ENJOY!!
Dave: I see you did not come
from a trading background, but rather from high tech. Do you believe this
enabled you to gain an edge on the traditional trader?
James: In the mid 90s I started a web
services firm called Reset which made websites for mostly entertainment
companies. We made websites for, among others, Warner Brothers, Sony, HBO, New
Line Cinema, Bad Boy Records, Interscope Records, and others. Before that, I
went to both undergrad and grad school in Computer Science and also spent some
time working at HBO.
The tech background helped when developing the
software to model different market conditions quickly. Any situation or idea I
had to model was easy to prototype with software. None of this stuff is rocket
science and even a slight background in software is enough to help one model
almost any situation.
The business background is more important. When
starting a business, as with trading, you have to deal with pain, stress, and
failure, in a variety of unpredictable situations. A friend once told me the
quote, "if you only make 51% correct decisions when starting a business then you
will be wildly successful." The same holds true for trading.
Dave: OK, so your computer
background led you to develop data models for the markets. These models enabled
you to properly test multiple assumptions and beliefs about trading. What was
the most surprising thing you found out from this testing?
James: I went through a phase where my
eyes were filled with dollar signs like in a comic book. The first system I ever
played with was Larry Williams’ OOPS system. At first it seemed like a money
machine to me. But then reality hits and although the OOPS system (buying gap
downs on assets when they breach the prior day low to the upside) is a great
system, it's better as a starting point for exploring your own ideas. I guess
the main idea I found is that countertrend trading is a lot better than going
with the trend. Philosophically, "the trend is your friend" is very pleasing
almost from a Zen perspective but doesn't really work well in practice. That
said, I always find myself feeling oddly relaxed when reading interviews with
trend-followers like in the Covel book. But perhaps that's the problem with it.
Dave: Are there any
technical indicators that stood up to your rigorous testing, and if so, what are
they?
James: The problem with any technical
indicator is that they are all nice little packages that look very simple on the
outside but when you dig deeper you find that they are made up a lot of
assumptions and parameters that lead to the curve-fitting accusations. In
general, all back testing is curve fitting but anything you can do to avoid this
(i.e. don't use technical indicators) helps deal with this.
Dave: What I found most
interesting from your research is the fact that there is very little predictive
qualities in candlestick patterns. This flies in the face of conventional
trading wisdom. They simply do not work anymore. What do you attribute this to?
James: Too much money thrown into trading
the markets. There are about 10,000 smart people at least (most likely much
more) testing and trading for themselves, for hedge funds, for prop firms, for
mutual funds, for market makers, etc). The basics are done.
Dave: What software do you
use for testing market assumptions?
James: Wealth-Lab
Dave: How difficult is it
to write the code for Wealth Lab. Is it something a non-programmer trader can
do?
James: When I was in 6th grade I once
answered a question the teacher posed by starting off saying "that's easy" and
she slapped me right in the face and called on someone else to answer. She said,
"Never say that." That said, "it’s easy." A lot of people shy away from WL
because they use a Pascal-like language to build their chart scripts. However,
the language they use wouldn't even qualify to be a prequel to Computer Science
101 in high school. Its easy to learn, particularly when modifying any of the
thousands of chart scripts posted to their site. I have no financial
relationship with their company although I'm kicking myself for not trying
harder to invest my wife's hard-earned money in their company before they were
bought by Fidelity.
Dave: Ok, lets jump into
the meat of this interview. In your book, Trade Like A Hedge Fund, you go
over 20 primary hedge fund trading strategies. I am going to focus on 4 of these
strategies that I found most fascinating. The first one, Buying Bankruptcies,
really opened my eyes to the potential in this method. Please tell our members
about this strategy and why it works.
James: Typically, when a company declares
bankruptcy, the stock is halted by the exchanges so the company has time to
disseminate the news of their downfall. Note that it's NEVER a surprise when a
company declares bankruptcy. It’s not like Worldcom was a $50 stock and then
they whipped out a Chapter 11 filing while everyone was asleep. By that point
Worldcom was the subject of dozens of lawsuits, headlines every day about
corruption, all executives being fired, and the debt was trading for pennies on
the dollar. The stock itself was around 10 cents on bankruptcy day.
Everyone who was going to bet on this bankruptcy
was already short the stock. Not only were they short, but probably almost every
executive was short the stock in order to hedge their worthless shares. And
everyone who was long the stock as an investment had already most likely sold
the stock by this point. Certainly all mutual funds were out of it by this time
(they never hold a 10 cent stock).
So what happens, when a stock declares
bankruptcy, it's halted, and then the halt is lifted later that day. Well,
nobody is selling (because they all already sold) and everyone is covering their
shorts (the worst has already happened and it’s not going to get any worse). So
these stocks tend to double or triple in value within 2-3 days, as happened in
the case of Worldcom, Enron, FAO Schwartz, and countless other mega-cap
bankruptcies.
His experiences he outline on his blog read like fiction, but having worked with him a deal or two, and knowing him long before he became famous, I assure you everything he says is 100% accurate. Lot's to learn here-- ENJOY!!
Dave: I see you did not come
from a trading background, but rather from high tech. Do you believe this
enabled you to gain an edge on the traditional trader?
James: In the mid 90s I started a web
services firm called Reset which made websites for mostly entertainment
companies. We made websites for, among others, Warner Brothers, Sony, HBO, New
Line Cinema, Bad Boy Records, Interscope Records, and others. Before that, I
went to both undergrad and grad school in Computer Science and also spent some
time working at HBO.
The tech background helped when developing the
software to model different market conditions quickly. Any situation or idea I
had to model was easy to prototype with software. None of this stuff is rocket
science and even a slight background in software is enough to help one model
almost any situation.
The business background is more important. When
starting a business, as with trading, you have to deal with pain, stress, and
failure, in a variety of unpredictable situations. A friend once told me the
quote, "if you only make 51% correct decisions when starting a business then you
will be wildly successful." The same holds true for trading.
Dave: OK, so your computer
background led you to develop data models for the markets. These models enabled
you to properly test multiple assumptions and beliefs about trading. What was
the most surprising thing you found out from this testing?
James: I went through a phase where my
eyes were filled with dollar signs like in a comic book. The first system I ever
played with was Larry Williams’ OOPS system. At first it seemed like a money
machine to me. But then reality hits and although the OOPS system (buying gap
downs on assets when they breach the prior day low to the upside) is a great
system, it's better as a starting point for exploring your own ideas. I guess
the main idea I found is that countertrend trading is a lot better than going
with the trend. Philosophically, "the trend is your friend" is very pleasing
almost from a Zen perspective but doesn't really work well in practice. That
said, I always find myself feeling oddly relaxed when reading interviews with
trend-followers like in the Covel book. But perhaps that's the problem with it.
Dave: Are there any
technical indicators that stood up to your rigorous testing, and if so, what are
they?
James: The problem with any technical
indicator is that they are all nice little packages that look very simple on the
outside but when you dig deeper you find that they are made up a lot of
assumptions and parameters that lead to the curve-fitting accusations. In
general, all back testing is curve fitting but anything you can do to avoid this
(i.e. don't use technical indicators) helps deal with this.
Dave: What I found most
interesting from your research is the fact that there is very little predictive
qualities in candlestick patterns. This flies in the face of conventional
trading wisdom. They simply do not work anymore. What do you attribute this to?
James: Too much money thrown into trading
the markets. There are about 10,000 smart people at least (most likely much
more) testing and trading for themselves, for hedge funds, for prop firms, for
mutual funds, for market makers, etc). The basics are done.
Dave: What software do you
use for testing market assumptions?
James: Wealth-Lab
Dave: How difficult is it
to write the code for Wealth Lab. Is it something a non-programmer trader can
do?
James: When I was in 6th grade I once
answered a question the teacher posed by starting off saying "that's easy" and
she slapped me right in the face and called on someone else to answer. She said,
"Never say that." That said, "it’s easy." A lot of people shy away from WL
because they use a Pascal-like language to build their chart scripts. However,
the language they use wouldn't even qualify to be a prequel to Computer Science
101 in high school. Its easy to learn, particularly when modifying any of the
thousands of chart scripts posted to their site. I have no financial
relationship with their company although I'm kicking myself for not trying
harder to invest my wife's hard-earned money in their company before they were
bought by Fidelity.
Dave: Ok, lets jump into
the meat of this interview. In your book, Trade Like A Hedge Fund, you go
over 20 primary hedge fund trading strategies. I am going to focus on 4 of these
strategies that I found most fascinating. The first one, Buying Bankruptcies,
really opened my eyes to the potential in this method. Please tell our members
about this strategy and why it works.
James: Typically, when a company declares
bankruptcy, the stock is halted by the exchanges so the company has time to
disseminate the news of their downfall. Note that it's NEVER a surprise when a
company declares bankruptcy. It’s not like Worldcom was a $50 stock and then
they whipped out a Chapter 11 filing while everyone was asleep. By that point
Worldcom was the subject of dozens of lawsuits, headlines every day about
corruption, all executives being fired, and the debt was trading for pennies on
the dollar. The stock itself was around 10 cents on bankruptcy day.
Everyone who was going to bet on this bankruptcy
was already short the stock. Not only were they short, but probably almost every
executive was short the stock in order to hedge their worthless shares. And
everyone who was long the stock as an investment had already most likely sold
the stock by this point. Certainly all mutual funds were out of it by this time
(they never hold a 10 cent stock).
So what happens, when a stock declares
bankruptcy, it's halted, and then the halt is lifted later that day. Well,
nobody is selling (because they all already sold) and everyone is covering their
shorts (the worst has already happened and it’s not going to get any worse). So
these stocks tend to double or triple in value within 2-3 days, as happened in
the case of Worldcom, Enron, FAO Schwartz, and countless other mega-cap
bankruptcies.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dave: Along the same
lines, you also suggest trading stocks that are going to be deleted from the
indexes. Most people trade stocks that are being added to the index, as do the
index funds. This deletion concept seems odd to me. How do you play deletions
from the indexes?
James: We buy the day the stock is
deleted, right (we hope) when all the irrational selling pressure being placed
on the stock by index funds selling, is over. The same concepts apply as in the
bankruptcy system.
Dave: The 200-day moving average is one of the most
talked about and utilized technical indicator. Does the 200-day MA work in the
traditional manner and what is the best way to use the 200-day MA?
James: So many media pundits use the
200-day MA to make a meaningless point to fill up airtime that its lost all
value as a technical indicator.
Dave: What can you tell
our members about trading gaps ? Does the traditional wisdom that gaps fill
stand up to testing?
James: Gaps are the physical
representation in the markets of the concepts of "fear" and "greed". When there
is fear, a stock gaps down. When there is greed, a stock gaps up. Most books
talk about exhaustion gaps, continuation gaps, etc without ever demonstrating
how to determine which gaps are which. Testing is the way to determine this and
take advantage of the fear and greed associated with these moves. Normally I
only like to trade gap downs. Gap ups tend to keep going. And who am I to get in
the way of people's passion?
Dave: Interesting, so
going short is not the opposite of going long. Can you elaborate on this
concept?
James: Let’s look at the basic facts.
Short selling doesn't even work in a bear market. If you look over the past 15
years, almost any time the Nasdaq 100 index moved up over 4% or more in a day
occurred during the bear market years of 2000-2002.
Another example is to look at the CSFB Dedicated
Short Bias index made up of hedge funds that only short stocks. As a group they
had a negative return in 2001. So the best short sellers ever, guys who spend 25
hours a day trying to short stocks and make people's lives miserable, had a
negative return in one of the worst bear market years ever. They stink.
Dave: The extreme
convertible arbitrage certainly has the sexiest name. What is ECA and how can a
trader utilize this complex sounding technique?
James: I love this strategy personally and
it works great in bear market years such as 2002. It combines the concepts of
mean reversion with ideas in convert arbitrage. The basic idea is that you find
a stock that has been tanking (for instance, all the energy stocks in 2002) and
you go long the preferred of that stock (if it exists) and short the stock. For
instance, AES-C, the preferred of AES, was offering a 20% yield while AES was
diving on fears of bankruptcy. A deeper dive on the stock showed that all of
AES's operations in other countries has debt that was non-recourse to the parent
company, meaning that the preferred wouldn't be effected and AES was most likely
safe from bankruptcy, securing the 20% yield. That said, if AES went bankrupt
then the stock would continue to plummet, making the short work out. The key is
determining the proper ratio between the preferred and the common and for that
you need a combination of backtesting and an understanding of the fundamentals.
Dave: Are there any final
words you would like to leave us with?
James: Trading is the most miserable thing
you can ever do with your life. Give it up now.
Dave: Wow, this has really
been an insightful discussion. Thank you for joining us !
James: Dave, good luck with your venture
and thanks for letting me do this.
lines, you also suggest trading stocks that are going to be deleted from the
indexes. Most people trade stocks that are being added to the index, as do the
index funds. This deletion concept seems odd to me. How do you play deletions
from the indexes?
James: We buy the day the stock is
deleted, right (we hope) when all the irrational selling pressure being placed
on the stock by index funds selling, is over. The same concepts apply as in the
bankruptcy system.
Dave: The 200-day moving average is one of the most
talked about and utilized technical indicator. Does the 200-day MA work in the
traditional manner and what is the best way to use the 200-day MA?
James: So many media pundits use the
200-day MA to make a meaningless point to fill up airtime that its lost all
value as a technical indicator.
Dave: What can you tell
our members about trading gaps ? Does the traditional wisdom that gaps fill
stand up to testing?
James: Gaps are the physical
representation in the markets of the concepts of "fear" and "greed". When there
is fear, a stock gaps down. When there is greed, a stock gaps up. Most books
talk about exhaustion gaps, continuation gaps, etc without ever demonstrating
how to determine which gaps are which. Testing is the way to determine this and
take advantage of the fear and greed associated with these moves. Normally I
only like to trade gap downs. Gap ups tend to keep going. And who am I to get in
the way of people's passion?
Dave: Interesting, so
going short is not the opposite of going long. Can you elaborate on this
concept?
James: Let’s look at the basic facts.
Short selling doesn't even work in a bear market. If you look over the past 15
years, almost any time the Nasdaq 100 index moved up over 4% or more in a day
occurred during the bear market years of 2000-2002.
Another example is to look at the CSFB Dedicated
Short Bias index made up of hedge funds that only short stocks. As a group they
had a negative return in 2001. So the best short sellers ever, guys who spend 25
hours a day trying to short stocks and make people's lives miserable, had a
negative return in one of the worst bear market years ever. They stink.
Dave: The extreme
convertible arbitrage certainly has the sexiest name. What is ECA and how can a
trader utilize this complex sounding technique?
James: I love this strategy personally and
it works great in bear market years such as 2002. It combines the concepts of
mean reversion with ideas in convert arbitrage. The basic idea is that you find
a stock that has been tanking (for instance, all the energy stocks in 2002) and
you go long the preferred of that stock (if it exists) and short the stock. For
instance, AES-C, the preferred of AES, was offering a 20% yield while AES was
diving on fears of bankruptcy. A deeper dive on the stock showed that all of
AES's operations in other countries has debt that was non-recourse to the parent
company, meaning that the preferred wouldn't be effected and AES was most likely
safe from bankruptcy, securing the 20% yield. That said, if AES went bankrupt
then the stock would continue to plummet, making the short work out. The key is
determining the proper ratio between the preferred and the common and for that
you need a combination of backtesting and an understanding of the fundamentals.
Dave: Are there any final
words you would like to leave us with?
James: Trading is the most miserable thing
you can ever do with your life. Give it up now.
Dave: Wow, this has really
been an insightful discussion. Thank you for joining us !
James: Dave, good luck with your venture
and thanks for letting me do this.
Last edited by a moderator:
More accurate might be:
Trading is the most miserable thing he ever did with his life.
I'm pretty sure there are traders who enjoy what they do.
very true. JA hates the markets now. But he still was a brilliant trader and researcher.
