Interview with Peter Brandt

[Frederick Foresight]

I came across this ~hour-long interview of long-time trader Peter Brandt:

https://soundcloud.com/https%3A%2F%2Fsoundcloud.com%2Fchat-with-traders%2F36-peter-brandt

It is an interview worth listening to. I first came across his name when I read his book, which was discussed here at ET a few years ago:

 

[bogitrade]

I like this forum but i prefer to read the posts than participate. Today I had to register after I saw this one. I was almost convinced to attend a course this guy offered. I used to read his blog but then I noticed that from time to time he would delete articles with "unfortunate predictions" he made and I admit there were more than a few. One that I remember in particular was a prediction that CCL would go bankrupt after an accident in Italy. He justified that on the basis of same technical pattern. I also remember when he called Dow 4,000 in 2011. I keep records of articles of all analysts I follow. Enjoy....

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I like this forum but i prefer to read the posts than participate. Today I had to register after I saw this one. I was almost convinced to attend a course this guy offered. I used to read his blog but then I noticed that from time to time he would delete articles with "unfortunate predictions" he made and I admit there were more than a few. One that I remember in particular was a prediction that CCL would go bankrupt after an accident in Italy. He justified that on the basis of same technical pattern. I also remember when he called Dow 4,000 in 2011. I keep records of articles of all analysts I follow. Enjoy....

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Interesting post, thanks. I only know of Brandt's book and the interview that I posted. I know nothing of his course or other services he offers, and I would never go for that kind of thing anyway. I find it odd that he would, as you say, delete articles he wrote because of subsequent outcomes. He claims to only have a 40% success rate at best and considers that only about 10% or 15% of his trades have made him the bulk of his money, if memory serves.

To my knowledge, he has never boasted about accuracy, stressing the importance of money management and loss containment. So the idea of deleting articles seems out of place against this background. Beyond that I can't comment one way or the other about the subject.

Although my time frame is substantially shorter than Brandt's and I don't use "classical" chart patterns in my own PA trading, I found his book and interview to be worth the time. Personally, I have no use for trend lines, and he used them in his book but concluded at the end that he would have to rethink his use of them. His conclusion affirmed my own. And he is even more adamant in the interview, which followed the book by a few years.

The one thing that I found inconsistent in his reasoning is that, although he claims not to predict, he nevertheless used price targets in his trading over the period of time covered in the book. In my mind, while entries can be characterized as reacting to price at perceived moments of opportunity, using price targets for exit is outright prediction akin to calling a turn in the future; it is anything but reacting.

Something in the interview I found useful is that he says he doesn't need to "study" a chart. He needs only a couple of seconds to see if there is anything imminently worthwhile for him there. I believe there is wisdom in that statement.

Also in the interview he said that if you do this long enough, you can't help but make money because enough opportunities will present themselves over the course of time. The question is whether you will be in the game long enough to take advantage of those eventual opportunities. And the key to that longevity is risk control and money management. This is not ego talking, but rather a refreshing humility.

 

[Chuck Krug]

I like the bit about how he doesn't like trailing out of positions, as you are trading your equity instead of the market.

 

[Trade_Smart]

Personally, I have no use for trend lines, and he used them in his book but concluded at the end that he would have to rethink his use of them. His conclusion affirmed my own.

Hello Frederick,


Thanks for the link. However, I believe you are severely misguided when you wrote “Personally, I have no use for trend lines, and he used them in his book but concluded at the end that he would have to rethink his use of them. His conclusion affirmed my own.”


Let me explain, one of the forefront and most important principles in technical analysis is that prices move in trends. As authors such as John Murphy, Martin Pring, Edwards and Magee, would all collectively agree that the concept of a trend is a core component of the technical analysis foundation. While one could argue there are multiple methods to evaluating a trend, such as moving averages, running linear least squares regression, and other methods. Trendlines, are without a doubt, the most efficient way of understanding the trend. I would be very skeptical of anyone who thinks otherwise or can agree with your assertion, as it directly violates, one of the three, fundamental building blocks in which TA is based upon: prices move in trends (Murphy).

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Hello Frederick,


Thanks for the link. However, I believe you are severely misguided when you wrote “Personally, I have no use for trend lines, and he used them in his book but concluded at the end that he would have to rethink his use of them. His conclusion affirmed my own.”


Let me explain, one of the forefront and most important principles in technical analysis is that prices move in trends. As authors such as John Murphy, Martin Pring, Edwards and Magee, would all collectively agree that the concept of a trend is a core component of the technical analysis foundation. While one could argue there are multiple methods to evaluating a trend, such as moving averages, running linear least squares regression, and other methods. Trendlines, are without a doubt, the most efficient way of understanding the trend. I would be very skeptical of anyone who thinks otherwise or can agree with your assertion, as it directly violates, one of the three, fundamental building blocks in which TA is based upon: prices move in trends (Murphy).

I have read a lot of books on TA over the years, including a few by Murphy and Pring, both of whom you mentioned. We all pick and choose what works for us in the context of our own trading method.

Listen to what Brandt said about trend lines in the interview. He observed that they had become less reliable for him than they were in his earlier days of trading. Also note that he used them in his book where he detailed actual trades but was less that pleased with the results stemming from trend lines.

I understand there are different ways to draw trend lines, and I even read a couple of books by Sperandeo several years ago, who claimed to have a definitive way to draw them. All well and good, and if they work for you, then more power to you. I prefer something different. I'm not suggesting for anyone to stop doing what works for them, and if what works for them includes trend lines, then so be it.

 

[bogitrade]

Listen to what Brandt said about trend lines in the interview.

Someone who deletes posts after making unfortunate calls and especially calls about Dow 4,000 when the index is above 11,000 should not be considered a reliable market technician. If your post was not a plug, you ought to answer why he has deleted from his blog the post I included above. Otherwise it may be a good idea to ask ET to delete this whole thread. I have saved a number of posts from this guy's blog that include curious application of technical analysis and series of bad calls. I consider him one of the worse analysts i have ever come across. There are better ones around. Jon Boorman, Andrew Thrasher, Brian Shannon come to mind. But this guy? No, no...

 

[Pekelo]

Just to be devil's advocate, predicting =/= trading.

Just because he was wrong on an incredibly long term prediction he still can be a good trader...

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Someone who deletes posts after making unfortunate calls and especially calls about Dow 4,000 when the index is above 11,000 should not be considered a reliable market technician. If your post was not a plug, you ought to answer why he has deleted from his blog the post I included above. Otherwise it may be a good idea to ask ET to delete this whole thread. I have saved a number of posts from this guy's blog that include curious application of technical analysis and series of bad calls. I consider him one of the worse analysts i have ever come across. There are better ones around. Jon Boorman, Andrew Thrasher, Brian Shannon come to mind. But this guy? No, no...

I suggest you advise him directly of your findings and see how he responds. I'd be curious to know how that goes. As I said, I don't subscribe to anyone's services, including Brandt's, so I can't comment one way or the other.

I trade intraday; Brandt trades long term and believes day trading is a bad deal. I don't use "classical" chart patterns; Brandt does. I don't use price targets; Brandt uses them. I would never make any kind of price prediction, let alone a long-term one; you claim he does (I'll take your word for it, because I didn't read his blog). Which reminds me: YOU read his blog; I don't. And you think I'm plugging for him? Really? I found some value in what he wrote in his book and what he said in the interview, and decided to point that out. You do what you feel you have to.

 

[Metamega]

He mentioned at the end of the interview the issues with being on social media is people calling out every call you make.

Like people pointing out his calls and how they were wrong but he mentions he was probably out of the trade before everyone pointed out his call.

He says in the interview that his track record on his trades is about 40 percent are winners. So by default his trade will be a loser most likely.

I'd say he removes so people don't follow that call anymore.

I wouldn't take anyone's trade setups if they don't fit my trade plan and method. I don't think I've ever see anyone with a proven high call rate.