Hello All, new here, and was simply hoping for some of the intelligent readers of this site to brainstorm some testable idea from Moon Cycles being a market timing tool of sorts. Looking to do a big followup article and just looking for new ideas to test.
Interesting Strategy, Do Moon Cycles affect the markets?
- Thread starter B The House
- Start date
I have back tested all kinds of the "strange" or bizarre ways to get in/out of markets, but so long as your money management rules are rigid and you do them with discipline and you did your backtesting honestly, you ahead of most others before you. It is like the monkey throwing darts at pages of Wallstreet Journal, almost anything goes up in a Bull market. Where it is Moon or planet alignments and even stars or Fibonacci retracements, proper MM, often times you get enough people do them can force the market to go in that direction.
Its a known fact that moon cycles can impact the water, weather and other things in nature including the behavior of folks. The latter is what runs the markets...people.
Yet, I don't think there's enough people in the markets that lets their "mood (moon) changes" impact their trade/investment decisions
Moon Maidens and Vampire Space Bats:
ESP, Astrology, Space Nazi batshit crazy systems DO "work" but not like most people believe. Most traders are obsessed with guessing which side will be the winner, so much so that they enter at the same places as everyone else. This gets them shaken out by people big enough to move the price. Unorthodox systems generally don't "work" by picking the right side more than half the time, but they "work" by forcibly breaking the time and place correlation between what you are doing and what the bottom of the food chain is doing.
When the winners say you have to do your own thing, that's exactly what you have to do, otherwise you'll get the results everyone else gets.
Brian
ESP, Astrology, Space Nazi batshit crazy systems DO "work" but not like most people believe. Most traders are obsessed with guessing which side will be the winner, so much so that they enter at the same places as everyone else. This gets them shaken out by people big enough to move the price. Unorthodox systems generally don't "work" by picking the right side more than half the time, but they "work" by forcibly breaking the time and place correlation between what you are doing and what the bottom of the food chain is doing.
When the winners say you have to do your own thing, that's exactly what you have to do, otherwise you'll get the results everyone else gets.
Brian
Thank you to those that have taken the time to respond so far, but lets try and stay on topic...just looking for new ideas, filters, improvements to test given the theory presented in the article.
Hopefully you understand this has been discussed (articles online and books) about moon cycles. There's really a lot of info out there about this topic online, youtube and facebook...stuff more advance than what you're going to find at this forum.
Simply, why not just begin backtesting moon cycles as a trade methodology or use other online articles/books beyond the article you posted ?
Its just time & energy considering its just backtesting many theories involving such...no money lost or gain. Just make sure you include typical slippage and your current commission rates and trading days you typically would not have traded (e.g. vacation).
1) Have you done any type of backtesting of trading via moon cycles ?
2) You trading SPY or you're trying to apply this stuff to something else ?
3) What books do you have on Moon Cycles, Lunar Market Cycles or Financial Astrology ?
Like any other method, you're going to find lots of articles and testing results that says this stuff doesn't work and others that show this stuff does work just like with any other trading method that's argued.
By the way, my interest in moon cycles only involves our moods and emotions in normal conditions. I know some top athletes that strongly believe in moon cycles and its impact on the human body...therefore impacting their performance levels. Therefore, I've always been curious to know if moon cycles impacts our decision making process...if so...what's the impact on traders decision making process.
Something to be curious about.
Thanks again for taking the time to comment wrbtrader, I'm the author of the article, which answers a couple of your questions. It works on all the index futures & ETF's, but I suppose a next step would be to test on all popular commodities. I'm an amateur astro physicist of sorts, & big saltwater fisherman (tides are everything) which is what interested me in the first place. I dont have any books on moon cycles or astrology as it relates to finance, but I'll certainly take a look around. Thats really interesting that athletes believe it impacts them as well, its not hard to make the case so it makes sense. I personally think its funny when people think stuff like moon cycles that effect every living thing on this planet are fubar, but a moving average which is just a made up line on a chart that effects nothing on planet Earth is vastly important.
I definitely don't know it all, but I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the markets are a make believe world, something that doesn't have to respond to reality, it's just a reflection of our delusional selves. Millions of people have broken like waves against the unreality of markets. Moon cycles are fine with me, but when I hear a trader anchoring to a belief system, I hear a person about to be utterly crushed and humiliated in a environment that is completely artificial.
This is not a criticism, this is trading.
I agree Beyond, which is why I said in the 3rd sentence of the article: "Perhaps one of the greatest lessons that I learned in that room, that I can unequivocally say is one of few truths of making a living via the markets, is that there is no "right or wrong" way to extract money from the markets."