Interesting Start To 2016... "sort of" like 2008?

MarketOwl said:
It is eerie how similar this first week of trading in 2016 is like the first week in 2008. And the 2007 that preceded 2008 is quite similar to 2015, price action wise. I can't imagine the same kind of destruction as 2008 just because of all the money already pumped into the system unlike then.

But all that liquidity from all the QEs could just go towards bonds or cash and out of stocks. No one is forced to buy stocks when given money. They can buy bonds or just hold cash. And stocks are still very overvalued at a P/E of 17 despite no earnings growth last year. Really a scary market to be long equities or short vol.

But bears have been burned so many times thinking this is the big one that anyone with any money left is naturally inclined to stay away from the short side. Tricky market, but definitely a much more bearish year than any since 2008.
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In 2007, s&p dropped over 50 points in one day, the largest one day loss for a very very long time. The reason? Chinese economy slowing down. That event triggered the catalyst for economic slowdown in USA...then people got laid off...then late mortgage payment...then foreclosure...then cdo collapse...then bankrun...then bear sterns and Lehman r.i.p...Sounds similar? But this time no more QE because interest rate can't go down no more. If minus interest rate, banks will have to pay my mortgage. I like that idea but not my banker, so no QE. So what other solution do they have? Hasta la vista, baby!

We gonna pump you up.
 
romik said:
Your bullish stance is based on some sort of historical stats, correct? Future events can't be quantified though.
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As per usual only a bet based on statistical expectancy, nothing is absolute except for death and taxes :)
 
Autodidact said:
It's a trap.
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Well, you did post elsewhere that 2015 low will remain intact. So, will it happen before or after this low in question is taken out? By definition, a bear trap usually occurs when the low is breached. Instead of sinking lower it reverses, cornering the shorts to cover. Hence, I suppose the bear trap could possibly happen when that 2015 low is first taken out. But you're in a real bind. You're damned either way. If we sink below 2015 low, you're screwed; if the bear trap materializes as expected, you're still screwed. Man, brace yourself and pray that your ass will remain in one piece! :finger: ;)
 
schizo said:
Well, you did post elsewhere that 2015 low will remain intact. So, will it happen before or after this low in question is taken out? By definition, a bear trap usually occurs when the low is breached. Instead of sinking lower it reverses, cornering the shorts to cover. Hence, I suppose the bear trap could possibly happen when that 2015 low is first taken out. But you're in a real bind. You're damned either way. If we sink below 2015 low, you're screwed; if the bear trap materializes as expected, you're still screwed. Man, brace yourself and pray that your ass will remain in one piece! :finger: ;)
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I'm experienced enough to survive a call where I'm wrong, but thanks for thinking of me.
 
No comment.

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