Interesting Start To 2016... "sort of" like 2008?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Some predict... "Half as bad as 2008", and we should BTFD when the markets are down 20-30%

Others... "TWICE as bad as 2008". If this turns out to be the case, we'll get the chance to buy certain groups (especially emerging markets and resources)... down -90% down from their highs.
 
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Scat, exponentially more potential shitstorms now than in '08. That was purely financial. This time it's inclusive of a brew of geo political stew reaching a boiling point with much more economic disruption potential. The 1st true black swan of this century is the unprecedented migration of the hardened semi civilised into the soft underbelly of the western world. Downstream events are entirely unpredictable as the arrogant fools concentrating on forming "one world" remain engaged in their narrow bandwidth of perception and illusion of control. Market participants can expect volatility excursions in faster cycles with exacerbated amplitudes.
 
Banjo said:
Scat, exponentially more potential shitstorms now than in '08. That was purely financial. This time it's inclusive of a brew of geo political stew reaching a boiling point with much more economic disruption potential. The 1st true black swan of this century is the unprecedented migration of the hardened semi civilised into the soft underbelly of the western world. Downstream events are entirely unpredictable as the arrogant fools concentrating on forming "one world" remain engaged in their narrow bandwidth of perception and illusion of control. Market participants can expect volatility excursions in faster cycles with exacerbated amplitudes.
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damn Banjo,

that last sentence really excited me!

can't predict the future, but 2015 felt to me in the vol world i play in so similar to 2007 its uncanny...who knows....
 
It is eerie how similar this first week of trading in 2016 is like the first week in 2008. And the 2007 that preceded 2008 is quite similar to 2015, price action wise. I can't imagine the same kind of destruction as 2008 just because of all the money already pumped into the system unlike then.

But all that liquidity from all the QEs could just go towards bonds or cash and out of stocks. No one is forced to buy stocks when given money. They can buy bonds or just hold cash. And stocks are still very overvalued at a P/E of 17 despite no earnings growth last year. Really a scary market to be long equities or short vol.

But bears have been burned so many times thinking this is the big one that anyone with any money left is naturally inclined to stay away from the short side. Tricky market, but definitely a much more bearish year than any since 2008.
 
MarketOwl said:
It is eerie how similar this first week of trading in 2016 is like the first week in 2008. And the 2007 that preceded 2008 is quite similar to 2015, price action wise. I can't imagine the same kind of destruction as 2008 just because of all the money already pumped into the system unlike then.

But all that liquidity from all the QEs could just go towards bonds or cash and out of stocks. No one is forced to buy stocks when given money. They can buy bonds or just hold cash. And stocks are still very overvalued at a P/E of 17 despite no earnings growth last year. Really a scary market to be long equities or short vol.

But bears have been burned so many times thinking this is the big one that anyone with any money left is naturally inclined to stay away from the short side. Tricky market, but definitely a much more bearish year than any since 2008.
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The bears are only winning the shorter time frame. Even if they are right, they have to fight the bulls all the way down. Bigger time frame participants will see a market selloff,as an opportunity to buy, and they have the longer term trend to lean on. That's what makes a bear market so hard to trade.
 
lawrence-lugar said:
I agree. I don't know, nor care, about the future. :finger: -- I just trade in the here and now, or today only. -- it's way easier to trade/predict the movement of the day ahead based on premarket variables.
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Yep. I will admit though, the chart of this recent fall does look similar to that of the beginning of 2008.
 
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