Once the halving takes place that means that it will cost twice as much to mine a bitcoin. So unless the price doubles the miners will not be as cost efficeint. I know the price has historically gone up with the halving, but what if it doesn't.
Agreed. There is no guarantee. At some point, if price doesn't keep up, then miners will go offline, the difficulty to mine bitcoin comes down, and we would reach some equilibrium point. But I suspect that many miners are in it for the long haul and can sit through a deep down cycle. Its just like we traders focus on expectancy. Small chance of a big win makes for positive expectancy if you have a long enough time horizon. And I think many of us would say its a big chance for a huge win.
Using old technology that wasn't efficient in the past will make it less efficient once the reward is halved. Isn't that like investing in hard wired telephones
Totally wrong analogy. These ASICs just aren't as efficient when you consider the cost of electricity, the block reward, and the bitcoin price. Its not that its a whole different technology like a dial up phone vs. a smart phone. Its no different than electric car vs. gas car. Right now, it maybe costs $20 to "fill" up your electric car vs. $100 to fill up the gas car. But if electricity spiked so high that the fill up would be $120, you'd go back to using your gas car.
Or maybe even better, if you were operating an uber service and the cost of rides spiked so much that even your gas car was efficient enough to turn a profit, you would put your gas car on the road as well in addition to your electric car.
Everything costs more but wages have kept up and the social safety net now catches more people.
Oh boy do you need to change this viewpoint. Real incomes against everything has actually gone down. Here is a chart that shows productivity gains vs. compensation.
Here is a chart of incomes vs. house values.
I can go on and on to cite examples. The key is that workers are worse off. I know you're an older guy, and frankly, its your generation that is stealing all the wealth but expecting all the benefits. Most healthcare costs are because of old people, and all you're going to do is saddle the next generation with the bill, long after you are gone. The old farts in congress are only making sure the system survives another decade or two because that is how long they have to live, and they don't give a fuck that someone else is going to pay the bill.
I take it you are still waiting for a better price to invest. For a guy who is bullish AF on bitcoin you seem reluctant to jump in with both feet and make a major commitment.
I'm in for over 75% of my net worth, which isn't much, but I'm fully committed. The last 20% I'm waiting for better prices, or simply going to DCA. I don't even care if it goes back to 16k. If you understand what the government is doing, you will understand we are at the end game, and any major shock can happen at any time. 2 weeks, 2 months, 2 years... its all relatively close.
I don't have any right now. I'm content to wait and see what happens. Hate to tie up any capital in something that's not moving my way.
There is a great speech by Michael Saylor from Bitcoin Prague I think it was where he talks about how most gains happened over just a few number of days, so if you weren't in, you'd miss out big. The thing with bitcoin is that once it starts pumping, it may be too late. You're gonna go try and buy at an exchange, and they might not let you withdraw cause they won't have it. You might also not be prepared to self custody, and it will take you weeks to learn.
The beautiful thing about fiat is that its designed to go down at a steady rate, so you do have time. I know you're prudent at taking your stops on your positions, so I know you won't lose it in market crash. And I honestly don't care if you buy it or not, but you keep engaging us on this crypto forum, so you must have a reason for it.
