@Handle123
There is a lot in your post and I'm trying to digest it all. Would you say the gist of your method is as follows: keep a portfolio of relatively stable currencies, wait till one trends and convert back to your base currency. And hedge off the risk with futures options. Finally, if there is a loss, just wait because you don't mind holding that currency long term. Am I close?
Am sorry, didn't notice till now. Oh no, I don't care about stable anything since I use 9 year monthly charts and sometimes 50 years if I have them going back that far, not in currencies though, but like corn and wheat. And I don't wait for anything to trend, I am seeking my opening move to be within $500 of the extremes of a percentage of 9 year highs/lows, waiting for something to exceed 9 year highs/lows, you won't be trading often, so you backtest till you find a percentage you can live. When 95% of the time markets make a certain pattern at highs/lows on intra-day data it is getting ready to make a possibility of extreme, but we have no way of knowing. When everything lines up, and automation is doing all of it now, it puts on futures positions and options are bought, as far as when to exchange from U.S.dollar to foreign currency, I know I am going to be early trying to find the extreme, so I usually wait 5-7 losses in the futures and then exchange, but I never hedge the currency as I would see this as wasting funds, I will just hang onto it for more years if need be, but has only happened a couple times and still didn't take much longer of a wait. I try to find currencies where that country has exchanges so I can trade those markets as well.
Hedging is one of the basic risk management techniques and it is being widely used in this virtual currency market. And it is a derivative technique where a trader enters in simultaneous buying (long position) and selling (short position) of a currency pair. So that if he faces losses in buying position he will conversely earn profit in selling position, thereby net profit will be zero. Thereby instead of entering in one position and face losses due to price change, a trader can hedge the risks.
You have not traded much have you? There is zero guarantee that the one you sold is going the right direction, so you can end up losing on both sides for weeks. LOL and being that many currencies move in different speed of price, one can move much faster than the other and you have a lousy hedge, I would never do this type of hedging as it spells loses eventually.
Get some books on hedging and find out through much study how to do properly.