Quote from jem:
Regarding pobability law Mr. Bond already manifested his ignorance on this subject on another thread. he said generals winning five major battles could not be necessarily be considered great because victories in five major battles could still be achieved by random chance.
You're distorting yet another scientist's words to suite your needs.
Here is my original post in this thread (the relevant part):
"Here is a good analogy. Once I asked one of my military friends what he considered as a great general. His answer was that if someone won five major battles in a row then he would be considered a great general. Then I asked what he thought the percentage of great generals were among all the generals in history. He thought about it for awhile, and then answered, "maybe 3%."
I laughed. If you flip coins 5 straight times, the chance of 5 straight heads is 3%! So were these 3% really great generals, or were they just lucky?
As a feeble human, I don't think we will ever know the answer to that question. Then why I am against the ID theory? Because it's worse. Not only it won't bring anything to the table as far as our knowledge goes, it prevents scientific thinking. It makes us lazy, makes us less likely to question our own thinking, less likely to challenge false observation. All of this are harmful to science."
And here is a statistics lesson for you:
The chance of winning one battle, everything else being equal (ie you're not better than your opponent) is 50%. That's random chance. That means if you had 100 generals fighting 50 battles, 50 of these generals would win (any surprise here?). The chance of winning two such battles in a row, is half that, at 25%. Take these same 100 generals, ask them to fight in another set of 50 battles, 25 of them would win twice in a row. The chance of winning three in a row, is yet another half, at 12.5%. Four in a row, at 6.25%. Five in a row, at 3.125%, or approximately 3%. So if people just randomly picked their battles, and randomly won a few and lost a few, then 3% of them would have won five in a row (and 3% of them would have lost five in a row, completely because of bad luck).
Do I need to explain it sloowwwwly again for you?