Institutional Buying/Selling
- Thread starter deaddog
- Start date
Hi would love to know which of these apply, given a really huge amount of stocks to sell from an institution that devise a market top:
- Dark pool transaction and splitting selling strategies will never avoid anomalies in the normal volume charts, so I will see always some high volume(selling) without price fluctuations
- Dark pool transaction and splitting selling strategies as icebergs will be able to sell a lot of stocks without causing any anomaly because they have a lot of tricks and will be able to distribute their sales in a sufficient period of time
- the entire story of the distribution of heavy volume without moving price action to signal reverse from bull to bear markets is not valid as reported by this guy that allegedly backtested this theory that I guess was formulated by O'Neill http://thepatternsite.com/DistributionDay.html
Here is an example of following the whales in a dark pool(s).
Alerted to unusually large trades & the chart had a possible 2b, went long just seconds before the breakout.
The cyan arrow is when the trades were reported in L2.
News about this company hit the wire about a minute later.
Alerted to unusually large trades & the chart had a possible 2b, went long just seconds before the breakout.
The cyan arrow is when the trades were reported in L2.
News about this company hit the wire about a minute later.
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thank you for your contribution, I do not see any top market change with volume anomalies. this is a really strong set up to me, the most classical wyckoff double bottom breakout with institutions that kick in before the explosion trapping the bulls, really high stochastic odds of success, furthermore with a base that begins much before that in May the 20th because after exhaustion of March supply and high selling volume, you got a super long consolidation clear break out from the consolidation channel and also cool contraction, I am really happy for you to have had this magnificent fantastic run, really pays the bills if you hold the capital at 19. Said that i love your TC2000, hope to motivate my self to buy the gold subscription one day
There are a lot of services that offer to retail dark pools printing and call put options. Combining them with price action/chart volume a retail can have a better understanding of smart money flow or is still utopic? I am using tradytics since a couple of days and i like it, please @longandshort consider i am not a scalper but try to do my best to maintaining from 3 days to 6 months a position* sometimes i need to do a couple of transactions day trading when market is not bullish)
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You still don’t know who is behind the trade or what their motivation is. So even if you see a print for 100k shares — what exactly do you do with it? You’d need to have a theory about subsequent returns and that requires more research.
Moving my first steps in understanding makers, the hedge funds and the pension funds, so i apologize if i may be not exact in the following assumptions; The point is that i know only the print and not the direction, but I can see the put and call of the ticker,normalize the ratio if i think multi leg strategy have been put in place that eliminate each other aiming at delta neutrality, and can see the gamma, and this gives me an idea not only if the transaction is scholastically bullish or bearish and maybe run some regression, but i can also study my timeframe and on the basis of the "print" can see if area of resistance or support have been created. Am I wrong, or is much more complex?
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you're working backwards.
unfortunately i'm not going to lay out all of the details for you lol, but i recommend you start with covering:
1) setting up a clear coverage universe & identifying major investors in your space including buy-sell rationale (can be done by reading fund prospectuses or approximating through reading about their strategy such as value or growth)
2) see if you can find times when you ID a fundamental trigger for a stock AND see subsequent major prints (hint: the tell is in implied vol lol)
3) this STILL doesn't tell you how to make money! are you just trying to piggyback on trades funds are making? Most active managers struggle to beat the benchmark, so I don't see how this is truly a profitable system... are you trying to front run these guys? you can't if you are already seeing the print -- it's ex-post PLUS you're not HFT and aren't doing stuff sub 100miliseconds PLUS you have no access to the agency side (you're not part of the network the broker is contacting to source shares/liquidity)
Ultimately the question is -- why do you think observing the order will help you make money? And what basis do you have for this?
Yes is a good strategy to entangle some level of complexity.
I am backtesting the smarties for my retail purposes; thanks, will look into volatility, although i think I am on the right track with the greeks
Yes is everything i want, wanna stay on their gigantic shoulder for a short ride, but only when bulge bracket land is moving together for a marathon, cause dimensions and "Axe-capital information" matters for his implicit asymmetry.
Lol, usually do not love to hit my laudable head on the walls
in the streets let alone the walls of wall street
Because transparent pools are better than dark pools, aren't?
Give me a chart from the 50s and I will be your Livermore, I am highly frustrated that today there are big price moves while the volume does not signal any accumulation on the charts. Flipping the symmetrical corollary: I cannot understand when distribution is occurring signaling a top, and these things are three quarter of making dough in my trading style.
So in an Agile framework my use case would be:
As a poor retail trader I need to gain an hedge for my ability to go in and out from the markets reasonably inferring what is the most probable EFFECTIVE daily and weekly VOLUME on the charts, compensating for ATS/OTC transactions, block orders, icebergs, and fraudulent cancelled orders. Is true that a blind monkey is going to throw darts hitting stocks on papers for selection with the same probability of the hedge fund managers in outperforming $SPY, but is equally true that retail guys do not move the price, institutions and market makers do.
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