Inside Real Estates Black Hole In Search Of Fantastic Opportunities

My personal opinion.

Real Estate is nowhere near bottom.

The low interest and anemic 'recovery' is a dead cat bounce before the Fed jacks rates.

The Fed works for the Banks and WallStreet.

Once their CDO paper has been disposed, rates will come up and the other shoe will drop on this faltering economy.
 
yes we are not yet at the btm ...yet

but we must recognize that the greatest real estate fortunes have been created ..made in ...during periods of depression and panic ...the only time to buy real estate over the next 20 years ...probably will be during the next 2.75 years...

remember demand ...the want to own real estate is increasing..
population is growing....the prices of all this real estate will bottom and the opportunities will be huge for those who really know when to buy

anything 3 hrs away from a major big city should be carefully examined....and waterfront property...the best stuff will be the first stuff to be purchased

real estate is the foundation that everything is built upon ...even in this massive downturn its the worlds strongest market

g
 
Hey man, I'm with you.

I think theres tremendous opportunity in real estate. Just not yet.

Theres isn't much steam left in this economy or the consumers credit card.

Look, we're already at what, 2% Fed Funds and the economy is teetering.

What does that tell you ? That everyone is over their head in Home or Credit Card debt (or both) and can't keep up.

So if Feds jack rates, even incrementally without bailing out or forgiving consumer debt en masse, we're going to see some serious problems.

Historically, many of the greatest fortunes were made in real estate bubbles and bottoms.

But history has shown us too, the Banks own the Federal Reserve and commandeer and guide the economy towards their own devices.

Most funds, institutions, pensions and investors are long heavy. Once Banks clear their CDO debt, well, they've got every reason to tighten the noose and go opposite.
 
buying real estate during the next yr will be like buying oil at 12 dollars a barrel...or gold at 255

let real estate crater....go lower......really crash....and then only then like a patient alligator strike

the reward will be well worth the wait...a great web site for all of us is radarlogic.com

the worlds first trillionaire...will probably be made during this crisis
thats 10 x 100 billion or 20x 50 billion....

watch the homebuilders for clues

g
 
Quote from nutmeg:

There is rebuilding of some cities, street scapes, building rehabbed, many store fronts are empty, seemingly waiting for the mad rush back down town at some point in the future.

I'm reading this book "The Death and Life of Great American Cities" Jane Jacobs. (14.95 @ Borders) This is the greatest real estate book I've ever read and has many applications of re business.

This book tells why sidewalks work, playgrounds work, the effects of transportation (vehicle and pedestrian) why inner city projects continually fail, how to recognize the unslumming of an area, you name it, if it affects an urban area, this book covers it.

I'm telling you, if you read this book, you'll drive down the street and just look at the businesses, structures that are there and get an approximate land value and long term potential.

This is important as the retiring generation seeks out downtown to move to. The downtown could be a great big flop for your dollar if all the pieces do not fall into place. It may look nice but will lack the diversity that makes it work.
More...

Nutmeg, I can identify with the rebirth of a downtown. I just moved to a city in the middle stages of reinventing itself. Over a billion dollars has been spent so far, more on the way. People tell me 3 years ago the place was a ghost town after 5 PM. Not anymore.

Its a simple concept - you have to entice people to LIVE downtown, and not rely on people to view it as just an entertainment destination.

Its far from finished, but its off to a good start. I did a tour of condo and loft developments in the works, and they are selling for what I consider to be high prices for this part of the country. From $250K to millions. And who was on the tour? High income 20-30 something singles or couples with no kids, couples who had children leaving home finally, and retired people looking to live in the action.

I'm going to read that book now to see just how well this city is doing in regards to getting all of the pieces right.
 
High income 20-30 something singles or couples with no kids, couples who had children leaving home finally, and retired people looking to live in the action.
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Just as one would suspect. The sustainability of this equation, imo, is the schools. If the schools are deficient, then these young couples/singles with no kids are going to move to a better school district when circumstances change.

The retirees are grandparents, and God knows our kids depend on us for many after care, errands, etc to help with the grand kids. If Grandpa moves downtown and has to drive to the burbs to retrieve a grandkid, this negates the effect of living where the action is and driving less.

Personally, I would keep an eye out how the city invests in schools. The middle class left the cities for this reason.
 
Quote from the gardner:

yes we are not yet at the btm ...yet

but we must recognize that the greatest real estate fortunes have been created ..made in ...during periods of depression and panic ...the only time to buy real estate over the next 20 years ...probably will be during the next 2.75 years...

remember demand ...the want to own real estate is increasing..
population is growing....the prices of all this real estate will bottom and the opportunities will be huge for those who really know when to buy

anything 3 hrs away from a major big city should be carefully examined....and waterfront property...the best stuff will be the first stuff to be purchased

real estate is the foundation that everything is built upon ...even in this massive downturn its the worlds strongest market

g
More...

I tend to agree with this line of thought. At some point in the next couple of years, if you don't pick up some beach front property or high end Florida golf property, you will regret it. As with any falling market, the timing issue is tough. I'd be wary about getting too leveraged though, because I don't think we will see a repeat of the 2002-2006 real estate bull market.
 
That's my thinking also, the window of opportunity to get into real estate will be several years or longer from the bottom and we're not there yet in my opinion.
 
Before I invested in florida I would research its future costs of electricity. I spent unusally small amounts to cool 4000 sq. feet under air. It was only a few hundred a month in the summer. It seemed like the best deal in america. Did fl lock in some good rates?
 
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