Insane binary options trade ?
- Thread starter RGLD
- Start date
How can you assume #1 without #2? #1 is based off past history that's based off the YTD on Jan 1st.
Looking at the S&P for the last 10 years from Wiki:
Assuming we're going to close positive this year too, there has been 2 occurance in 2018 and 2015 where you would have lost.
If I'm just going to execute the trade now, it would not be based off this graph, it'd be based off starting in Oct instead and I don't really wanna do an excel for that.
But the obvious problem of executing this trade now is what if the market drops below my entry by Dec 31? Than 2022 would not only need to close positive, but it'll need to make up for whatever losses I incurred in these 3 months.
My goodness, you're really starting to show your age... Maybe you're older than you look on TV.
You should give Anrea Grande another listen, she always make me feel young and hip again for 3 minutes.
Last edited:
Dude, you must be high. Pissed off at you? What???
This is the problem with text, when you have two folks who have lots to say and are succinct and do not to type "r u horn f3R ChaR"? In fact, based upon what I have seen, the old l33t speak is now old and considered boomer, which is sad.
What I meant to say is that I think you misunderstood how I interpreted RGLD's trade. His hypothetical was that SPY would be at 430 on Jan 2, 2022. So he would enter that trade then, and assumed a certain spread. His expiry is Dec 31st 2023. (Or as you corrected him, Dec 23rd or something.)
I cannot base my mind's eye on a date different from the hypothesis presented. We must assume the date and time he meant is Jan 2nd, and the price is 430 for this thought experiment. Will the spreads be larger or smaller? We won't know until that date comes.
In fact, in thinking about it, that was a shitty question RGLD, lol! Why not just postulate it from TODAY'S price point, instead of Jan 2nd of next year! OY!
That makes no sense at all. You're saying that January to January is better than February to February, or June to June, or September to September. I'm saying there's zero reason to assume that. What are you missing here?
Ummm what? I can't tell if you're joking on this one. I don't care what the price is at by end of year, I won't be executing it until it closes on Dec 31st? $430 was an example.
Feb to Feb is arbitrary, or Oct to Oct. There are fundamental reports that gets released in the middle of the year like GDP. What if I do March - March and GDP gets release April 1st / 2nd? I can probably plot it out on excel but I'm not going to. Jan - Jan is year by year literally. But if you're willing to break that rule, than you can pick any month, any week! Hell you can do Month to Month! You only would have lost a few times in 2 years. Definitely more winners than losers.
Last edited:
Hey, you said you liked older Metallica. *shrugs* I could post some Cole Porter, too? How about something in between to make us both feel younger and happier.
You missed one key point: his hypothesis was based on a spread that had a risk/reward ratio of 1:1. The only place that happens is ATM - so "430" was just a nominal placeholder for "ATM strike".
Thanks for your input though. Like you said, it's just a thesis. I won't be executing 100 contracts anymore, but maybe half would be acceptable risk for an entire year.