1) Very bullish for commodities IMO. Oil will hit at least $95, gold will approach $1000, and soft commodities and agriculture should do even better.
2) May well precipitate a final leg down in the dollar, culminating in widespread fear & loathing of the greenback. Whether this happens at 1.48, 1.70, or 1.95 to the Euro I have no idea. But I would not want to be long dollars for the time being.
3) Say goodbye to the bond markets. Any rallies on housing weakness should be sold. Time to lock in long-term interest rates, anyone owning non-TIPS bonds here for investment is suicidal IMO.
4) Interest-rate sensitive stocks, especially banks, mortgage cos, homebuilders should have a rapid strong run up, but IMO that will just provide a great shorting opp later. Reminiscent of the Fed rate cut in early 2001 which provided the perfect short entry in Spring of that year.
5) Stocks - I am not sure here, I'd want to see follow through for the next few days to get a sense of future direction. Either we rally hard, or the rally quickly flops and then reverses. I'm leaning towards a rally to new highs at the moment, but don't have much conviction so I am not going to be long much.
6) If you are long housing and want to sell (e.g. you own investment properties), you may have a nice 3 month window of opportunity before further bad news comes out. This will IMO be the last good chance to sell before it collapses.
Overall, the Bernanke fed seems even more dovish than Greenspan. Alan is predicting a secular rise in inflation and it is hard to disagree.
2) May well precipitate a final leg down in the dollar, culminating in widespread fear & loathing of the greenback. Whether this happens at 1.48, 1.70, or 1.95 to the Euro I have no idea. But I would not want to be long dollars for the time being.
3) Say goodbye to the bond markets. Any rallies on housing weakness should be sold. Time to lock in long-term interest rates, anyone owning non-TIPS bonds here for investment is suicidal IMO.
4) Interest-rate sensitive stocks, especially banks, mortgage cos, homebuilders should have a rapid strong run up, but IMO that will just provide a great shorting opp later. Reminiscent of the Fed rate cut in early 2001 which provided the perfect short entry in Spring of that year.
5) Stocks - I am not sure here, I'd want to see follow through for the next few days to get a sense of future direction. Either we rally hard, or the rally quickly flops and then reverses. I'm leaning towards a rally to new highs at the moment, but don't have much conviction so I am not going to be long much.
6) If you are long housing and want to sell (e.g. you own investment properties), you may have a nice 3 month window of opportunity before further bad news comes out. This will IMO be the last good chance to sell before it collapses.
Overall, the Bernanke fed seems even more dovish than Greenspan. Alan is predicting a secular rise in inflation and it is hard to disagree.