Inflation Watch: Thanksgiving Dinner Edition

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

When you got nothin', go ad hominem.

Hell no. As I like to say, when you've got them down for the count, throw ad hominem on top!

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:



Many other stores are showing turkey for much less than a dollar a pound, $0.77 and $0.88, if you buy $20 or $25 worth of other stuff on that trip.

Once again, specific store margin compression with various last minute sales doesn't count. It's good for folks, don't get me wrong, but it doesn't dispute the average cost for US citizens, as per the bloomberg data below.

Quote from Tsing Tao:


The U.S. city average price per pound for frozen turkeys climbed to $1.819 in September, up from $1.433 at the end of last year and $1.621 a year prior. September’s price implies an average 15 pound Thanksgiving turkey will cost Americans $27.29 this year, compared to less than $25 dollars last year.

Keep trying, though. At least some folks here might get to see your circulars!

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Once again, specific store margin compression with various last minute sales doesn't count. It's good for folks, don't get me wrong, but it doesn't dispute the average cost for US citizens, as per the bloomberg data below.

Keep trying, though. At least some folks here might get to see your circulars!

Not exactly last minute if those prices were effective a week ago.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, it's certainly not all we got, innit? We got all sorts of other things, now including the rate at which the cost of them Thanksgiving dinners has been rising. And hell, no, "bruv" ain't no ebonics, it's what chavs use.

What the hell is a chav?

Quote from Martinghoul:


True dat... Allegedly, median nominal household income in the US has risen at a rate of 2.28% over the last 10 years, 1.11% over the last 5 years and 2.85% over the entire 27 period in question. Obviously, this is based on the data from the Census Bureau, so a pinch of salt might be in order.

Nominal. Ah. So when we look at inflation adjusted dollars, here's a nice article by WAPO that states "The typical American family makes less than it did in 1989". Good holiday reading for you. I know, it's real not nominal. But it sure shows how wages have really declined. We can't just look at wages to turkeys, much as that might be convenient for you.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...erican-family-makes-less-than-it-did-in-1989/

Quote from Martinghoul:

Sure thing... I am curious whether you have looked into the effect of both "substitution" and "hedonic adjustments" on the CPI figure?

Shadowstats has a nice chart showing CPI over time, using previous calculation methodology of the government and subtracting out revisions, substitutions and hedonic adjustments.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The below is based on the same methodology they used in 1980, I believe.

Quote from Martinghoul:

And yes, it is, in fact, the BLS which reports employment figures, based on the Census Bureau data.

Excellent! Then we agree, it was the BLS that reported bad data. One less thing we have to argue about.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

Not exactly last minute if those prices were effective a week ago.

Again, referring you to my "how long does it take to thaw a turkey" point, people usually buy a turkey before that. Regardless, the avg turkey price across all US cities is the stat, not everyone can get to a Piggly Wiggly like you want them to.

 

[Ricter]

Foodland, Honolulu (is there a more expensive US city to buy turkey in?), 16 pound turkey, frozen, $6.88 each, since 20 November. Limit 2.

 

[Ricter]

Here we go... Fairbanks Alaska, Carrs/Safeway, Butterball frozen turkey, Grade A, 10 - 22 pounds, $1.29 per pound! Price valid 11/20/13 - 11/28/13.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Tsing Tao:
What the hell is a chav?

A chav is a British derogatory term for a low-class boorish young lout, generally.

Nominal. Ah. So when we look at inflation adjusted dollars, here's a nice article by WAPO that states "The typical American family makes less than it did in 1989". Good holiday reading for you. I know, it's real not nominal. But it sure shows how wages have really declined. We can't just look at wages to turkeys, much as that might be convenient for you.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...erican-family-makes-less-than-it-did-in-1989/

Yes, but for purposes of our current discussion, in order to compare like for like, we need to use nominal rather than real wages, because we're looking at the nominal cost of the average Thanksgiving dinner. If we were doing the calculation for what AFBF calls the "inflation-adjusted cost", we would need to use real wages, indeed.

Shadowstats has a nice chart showing CPI over time, using previous calculation methodology of the government and subtracting out revisions, substitutions and hedonic adjustments.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The below is based on the same methodology they used in 1980, I believe.

Yeah, except, as I have mentioned previously, John Williams of the ShadowStats does it wrong. I can go into the gory details, if you like, since I have looked at this reasonably carefully. In general, I am always rather puzzled by how willing people are to accept the ShadowStats CPI estimates without applying any critical thinking and examining the method.

 

[Ricter]

Ok, turkey prices in Nome are probably even higher than in Fairbanks, but the Safeway there is not posting to a website and I'm not going to call them. : )

How long to thaw a turkey?

(allrecipes.com)

"How to Thaw a Turkey

"There are two safe methods for thawing a turkey:

" In the refrigerator. This is the preferred method, but can be difficult to arrange with a fully stocked fridge. Clear some space and allow one day for every 5 pounds of meat: a 15-pound turkey will require three days to thaw thoroughly.

" Submerged in cold water. Using your sink or a bucket, keep the turkey in its original wrapper and make sure it is completely covered with cold water. You may need to cover the turkey with a plate and place some heavy cans on top of it to keep it totally submerged. It is vital for the sake of safety that you change the cold water every 30 minutes. Using this method, it will take approximately 30 minutes per pound to thaw a turkey."

Happy inexpensive Thanksgiving, all!

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Martinghoul:

A chav is a British derogatory term for a low-class boorish young lout, generally.

Ah. Interesting, I suppose.

Quote from Martinghoul:


Yes, but for purposes of our current discussion, in order to compare like for like, we need to use nominal rather than real wages, because we're looking at the nominal cost of the average Thanksgiving dinner. If we were doing the calculation for what AFBF calls the "inflation-adjusted cost", we would need to use real wages, indeed.

Yes, I understand why you used nominal. But in real terms, people have less income than they have in a long, long time. Which means more of it goes towards food.

Quote from Martinghoul:


Yeah, except, as I have mentioned previously, John Williams of the ShadowStats does it wrong. I can go into the gory details, if you like, since I have looked at this reasonably carefully. In general, I am always rather puzzled by how willing people are to accept the ShadowStats CPI estimates without applying any critical thinking and examining the method.

Shadowstats or a declared Fed apologist...hmmm...that's a tough one. I'll have to think about it before I make my choice. I'm sure you understand.