Inflation Watch: Thanksgiving Dinner Edition

[Lucrum]

Quote from WaveStrider:

I'm not 100% sure, but I think I am generally paying more for stuff than say 2 years ago...

I mean - wtf - are people too stupid to notice - or do they need someone with "authority" to tell them otherwise...?

Liberals and the like need big brother to tell them pretty much everything.
They're not very good at thinking for themselves.
In fact they often prefer to be lied to especially if the lie sounds better than reality.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

A million prices here, a million prices there, and pretty soon you have a real sample size!

; )

It's not the number of prices, but the history. Short of a time machine, we'll have to wait a decade for some trends to materialize.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from WaveStrider:

I'm not 100% sure, but I think I am generally paying more for stuff than say 2 years ago...

I mean - wtf - are people too stupid to notice - or do they need someone with "authority" to tell them otherwise...?

You don't have to tell me. I'm in the consumer package goods industry. We have over 50 brands of products you'd find in your grocery store. We haven't taken one price decrease since 2009, and 62 price increases in the last 2 years. I also know for a fact that our competition (other large companies like Kraft, P&G, etc) have taken a bunch as well, because in some cases we parity price with them - so when they move, we move.

Most supporters of the Fed and "economists" like Krugman will tell you that you're imagining it - or that the benefits of things like cheaper Ipads and stuff compensate for higher food costs, etc.

However, as one journalist said to Dudley when he was touting low inflation, "you can't eat an Ipad." As food becomes more and more of the monthly expenses for people with lower income, the CPI-ex Food and Energy is a fucking joke.

Elitists just don't get it. Martin and Ricter will tell you what to believe, and you will believe it, damn you.

 

[Ricter]

Quote from WaveStrider:

I'm not 100% sure, but I think I am generally paying more for stuff than say 2 years ago...

I mean - wtf - are people too stupid to notice - or do they need someone with "authority" to tell them otherwise...?

No one is arguing there is zero inflation, only that inflation is low. Quite low in fact. This thread's premise is false.

And pricestats (formerly BPP) data goes back to 2008--that's sufficient to identify an inflation trend.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Tsing Tao:
You don't have to tell me. I'm in the consumer package goods industry. We have over 50 brands of products you'd find in your grocery store. We haven't taken one price decrease since 2009, and 62 price increases in the last 2 years. I also know for a fact that our competition (other large companies like Kraft, P&G, etc) have taken a bunch as well, because in some cases we parity price with them - so when they move, we move.

Most supporters of the Fed and "economists" like Krugman will tell you that you're imagining it - or that the benefits of things like cheaper Ipads and stuff compensate for higher food costs, etc.

However, as one journalist said to Dudley when he was touting low inflation, "you can't eat an Ipad." As food becomes more and more of the monthly expenses for people with lower income, the CPI-ex Food and Energy is a fucking joke.

Elitists just don't get it. Martin and Ricter will tell you what to believe, and you will believe it, damn you.

Oh, come on, TT... When have I ever told anyone what to believe? Do your own homework, make your own conclusions, that's what I have been saying (and doing). It made no sense to me that BLS numbers are treated with more than healthy skepticism, while ShadowStats ones are treated as gospel. That just feels like bias, which suggested to me that I should go and dig. I did and I have concluded that ShadowStats is just as biased, if not worse, and, thus, it's not useful to me.

As to the food and energy, methinks you're barking up the wrong tree here. Didn't I offer EPI as one of the alternative measures? And isn't the whole point of EPI to massively overweigh everyday costs like energy and food? If you're skeptical about BLS CPI-U, is EPI therefore a more sensible gauge? BTW, at the moment, because of gasoline, EPI YoY is running negative.

Finally, I understand and agree that there have been price increases, but how much? This is a question both for yourself and WaveStrider. What has been the rate of inflation that you have been experiencing?

EDIT: In fact, let's take the turkey dinner prices. Has the price of a Thanksgiving dinner increased for you since last year or is your experience in line w/the published findings from the farm bureau?

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Oh, come on, TT... When have I ever told anyone what to believe? Do your own homework, make your own conclusions, that's what I have been saying (and doing). It made no sense to me that BLS numbers are treated with more than healthy skepticism, while ShadowStats ones are treated as gospel. That just feels like bias, which suggested to me that I should go and dig. I did and I have concluded that ShadowStats is just as biased, if not worse, and, thus, it's not useful to me.

As to the food and energy, methinks you're barking up the wrong tree here. Didn't I offer EPI as one of the alternative measures? And isn't the whole point of EPI to overweigh everyday costs like energy and food? If you're skeptical about BLS CPI-U, is EPI therefore a more sensible gauge? BTW, at the moment, because of gasoline, EPI YoY is running negative.

Finally, I understand and agree that there have been price increases, but how much? This is a question both for yourself and WaveStrider. What has been the rate of inflation that you have been experiencing?

Well said but irrelevant to the thread (no offense). I put this year's turkey prices right up for everyone to see--they're no higher than last year.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Oh, come on, TT... When have I ever told anyone what to believe? Do your own homework, make your own conclusions, that's what I have been saying (and doing). It made no sense to me that BLS numbers are treated with more than healthy skepticism, while ShadowStats ones are treated as gospel. That just feels like bias, which suggested to me that I should go and dig. I did and I have concluded that ShadowStats is just as biased, if not worse, and, thus, it's not useful to me.

As to the food and energy, methinks you're barking up the wrong tree here. Didn't I offer EPI as one of the alternative measures? And isn't the whole point of EPI to massively overweigh everyday costs like energy and food? If you're skeptical about BLS CPI-U, is EPI therefore a more sensible gauge? BTW, at the moment, because of gasoline, EPI YoY is running negative.

Finally, I understand and agree that there have been price increases, but how much? This is a question both for yourself and WaveStrider. What has been the rate of inflation that you have been experiencing?

EDIT: In fact, let's take the turkey dinner prices. Has the price of a Thanksgiving dinner increased for you since last year or is your experience in line w/the published findings from the farm bureau?

Shadowstats are not treated as gospel, at least not by me. But the BLS numbers are horseshit, so it's really a case of the government (and it's cheerleaders) telling us one thing, but the rest of us knowing the reality of it. That's what gets people's blood up on this topic and why so many disagreements are had over it. The government shows all this stuff about how prices aren't rising, yet real families go to the store and see it every day. They see not only the price increase, but the reduction in sizes (the so-called "down ouncing") of favorite brands. Interesting side thought - does the BLS capture "down ouncing"?

And the reason it's all relevant is because we have central banks all over the world, led by Helicopter Ben (not to be confused with Helicopter Milton) using low inflation as the excuse to continue dumping more money on the fire while the prols scream "uncle!" And folks like you support the whole mess.

Cool article interlude detailing how Brits are coping:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/households-raid-savings-record-rate-070446632--finance.html

And the answer to all of this? We're not printing enough.

When will you folks wake up? When the whole world is ablaze and destitute?

As for the price of my Thanksgiving dinner, I couldn't tell you what it was, as inflation doesn't (at this point) really affect folks like you and I to the point where we keep receipts and stuff, does it.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

Well said but irrelevant to the thread (no offense). I put this year's turkey prices right up for everyone to see--they're no higher than last year.

You put up localized prices that were discounted based on retailers using merchandising to get people to do things like buy 10 items at full price and get half off a turkey, etc. That's great evidence of deals out there, but doesn't dispute the avg. turkey price across the country in the Bloomberg article.

And that's the last time you'll have to listen to me say that (because it's like talking to a wall at this point). Go ahead and tout your local store ads. Have a blast.

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

You put up localized prices that were discounted based on retailers using merchandising to get people to do things like buy 10 items at full price and get half off a turkey, etc. That's great evidence of deals out there, but doesn't dispute the avg. turkey price across the country in the Bloomberg article.

And that's the last time you'll have to listen to me say that (because it's like talking to a wall at this point). Go ahead and tout your local store ads. Have a blast.

I pulled ads from all over the nation. And the discounting happens every year. Turkey was no higher.

 

[Tsing Tao]

I see an ad from Piggly, that's it. The rest is your commentary vs. Bloomberg. Hmm...who to believe...

That's a tough one.