Inflation - Prices are going up!

[Overnight]

Looks pretty stable to me. No significant increase since 2015. I am not saying inflation is a myth but it is completely blown out of proportion by many pundits. And after all this is one item in a basket of hundreds of items that make up inflation baskets and in one single city. San Francisco is another anomaly for valid reasons.

The prices of things ARE going up, but in insidious ways that you cannot see. And in ways you have agreed to not see. Let me tell you something about cows and gasoline.

You see the charts of LE right now?

So why are beef prices for ground chuck been the same for 3 damned years? It is always the same. Like 4 bux per pound for 85% lean. That is OUTRAGEOUS when the price per head fluctuates 15 bux each month.

Same with RBOB. That thing is flying all over the place this year, and gas prices at the pump are barely moving. 10 cents here, 10 cents there, but the price per gallon is from 2.05 per to 1.70 per. WTF! Inflation is there, and it is insidious man. It may not manifest in the way you expect, but it is there. Especially in cows.

 

[Stocktracker]

- my local pub just raised the price on a pint of Golden from
$4 to $6.
- My barber just jacked up her price from $15 to $20 for a men’s haircut
- A local lunch buffet just raised their price from $9 to $10.

I know that it’s absurd to extrapolate inflationary trends from local price increases... but... Eek!

Economy 101
Take a look at the German Interest rate ( negative) and the Japanese Interest rate ( negative) then add to that the cutting of US interest rate when the unemployment is very low. What does that tell you? ( inflation)

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

You are hugely conflating price swings that are a function of short term supply and demand and inflation, which is to be analyzed and looked at from a long term perspective. I can show you uncountable times in the past where gasoline hit 3 or 4 dollars a gallon. So what. I stick to my claim that mostly education and perhaps health care exceed long term inflation trends.

The problem in American society is not large price increases. It is an on average undereducated work force that by large majority is only capable of performing low paid jobs. The real problem is a free wheeling capitalist system that worships large corporations that hold wages down among other factors. Same situation in Japan. In contrast, in many Western European economies the government and regulators do not prioritize large corporations but put more weight on consumer protections via wage regulation and supporting family owned and small companies that put much more emphasis on the well being of their workforce. I dont even understand why this is a surprise to most. In an economic system where the emphasis is on letting the ultra rich become ever wealthier only a tiny fraction of the top 1% earn ever more while the rest is not fairly partaking in the fruits of GDP. In Germany or Scandinavia or Holland or Belgium or France or countless other nations the money that the elite is taxed with ends up in lower health care for the masses and better schooling and training and a better overall quality of life. The claim that America is the best country in the world is untrue and wague as could possibly be. What is the definition of "best"? In most categories the US does not even play in the top 5 league. All the money that the 1% horde is money not benefitting the masses. Mostly that feeds into wage depression. Relative to price levels (and those price levels are not a function of inflation) wages are incredibly suppressed in the US. That is not because prices have increased so much but because wages have not kept pace with innovation and technological advances. A worker produces a multiple of what he or she produced 25 years ago yet he or she earns a lot less in real terms than 20-25 years ago.

There is no surprise why families by large are feeling the pinch when even with two income earners there is not enough money coming home. Blame it on high taxes and low income. It's not prices of consumer goods that stress the bottom line.

The prices of things ARE going up, but in insidious ways that you cannot see. And in ways you have agreed to not see. Let me tell you something about cows and gasoline.

You see the charts of LE right now?

So why are beef prices for ground chuck been the same for 3 damned years? It is always the same. Like 4 bux per pound for 85% lean. That is OUTRAGEOUS when the price per head fluctuates 15 bux each month.

Same with RBOB. That thing is flying all over the place this year, and gas prices at the pump are barely moving. 10 cents here, 10 cents there, but the price per gallon is from 2.05 per to 1.70 per. WTF! Inflation is there, and it is insidious man. It may not manifest in the way you expect, but it is there. Especially in cows.

 

[Overnight]

You are hugely conflating price swings that are a function of short term supply and demand and inflation, which is to be analyzed and looked at from a long term perspective. I can show you uncountable times in the past where gasoline hit 3 or 4 dollars a gallon. So what. I stick to my claim that mostly education and perhaps health care exceed long term inflation trends.

Price swings? Then how do you explain the cow phenomena? Beef at the supermarket has been doing nothing but going up year after year, slowly and insidiously, while packer prices have been fluctuating wildly. These savings are not passed onto the consumers, but rather adsorbed by the producers. And they stick into the retail price, because inflation is causing the producers to do so. Because it is costing more for them to buy the feed, and pay rent on the land, etc...

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

Let's stick to one example. Your gasoline prices. Long term trend, down. You are erroneously referring to price swings. There is no inflation to be seen.

And yes, some commodities increased in price over time for specific reasons. Other commodities decreased in price, long term, for other reasons.

My point is not that I disbelieve that prices of some goods have increased. My point was that neither America nor Europe is dealing with extraordinary inflation over the past 20 years. Inflation is within a long term average and broadly accepted inflation measures are pretty accurate. All else are conspiracy theories.

Price swings? Then how do you explain the cow phenomena? Beef at the supermarket has been doing nothing but going up year after year, slowly and insidiously, while packer prices have been fluctuating wildly. These savings are not passed onto the consumers, but rather adsorbed by the producers. And they stick into the retail price, because inflation is causing the producers to do so. Because it is costing more for them to buy the feed, and pay rent on the land, etc...

 

[Ryan81]

Skyrocketing lol. Like your 2.5% rent increase in NYC?

Not sure what you're getting at or what you think you know about me, but you're way off base. I've never lived in NYC, and I don't rent. I wouldn't choose to live in NYC even if someone else paid my "rent". But I guess unwarranted snide remarks are kind of par for the course on this board, right?

But let's get back to facts -- Case Shiller National Index graph's slope over the past decade sure looks similar to the run-up in the previous real estate bubble though:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

I'm not saying we're in a bubble -- but if you think quoting rental rates in one market (one manipulated rental market with "rent control" laws, even) as an indication of the overall national housing costs, then you need to do better research.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

That's around 3.3% per annum over the past 15years. Hardly runaway inflation and actually very close to the 3% inflation target. Definitely not skyrocketing as you claimed in an earlier post. Again, claims of large price increases debunked.

Not sure what you're getting at or what you think you know about me, but you're way off base. I've never lived in NYC, and I don't rent. I wouldn't choose to live in NYC even if someone else paid my "rent". But I guess unwarranted snide remarks are kind of par for the course on this board, right?

But let's get back to facts -- Case Shiller National Index graph's slope over the past decade sure looks similar to the run-up in the previous real estate bubble though:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

I'm not saying we're in a bubble -- but if you think quoting rental rates in one market (one manipulated rental market with "rent control" laws, even) as an indication of the overall national housing costs, then you need to do better research.

 

[ElCubano]

30 years ago a round trip ticket to China costs like $1500.... today, $500..

also technology is adding a lot of productivity for free...

30 years ago you bought one TV, one fridge and one washing machine until death did you apart. Now you need to replace everything every 3-5 years.

 

[dozu888]

30 years ago you bought one TV, one fridge and one washing machine until death did you apart. Now you need to replace everything every 3-5 years.

true.... however I actually think this makes sense...

due to the exponential technology growth, the product features go up like a hockey stick, therefore after a few years even if something can still function, they can not keep up with the prevalent features on the market..

 

[Ryan81]

30 years ago, a trip to a hospital emergency room wouldn't separate a median income family from more than 1/4 of their annual income.