Inflation not Deflation?

drsteph · Nov 5, 2008

Quote from jjf:

You need to buy productive farmland at the bottom of it's production cycle.

Yup, missed that opportunity a few years back, its true.

jjf · Nov 5, 2008

Quote from drsteph:

Yup, missed that opportunity a few years back, its true.

Well at least you didn't go chasing

When people do this with a leveraged farm they eventually hit the skids when crop prices bottom out and they are forced to sell.

ShoeshineBoy · Nov 5, 2008

Quote from flyingiguana:

yes but at what point? there's still a glut of unsold homes and housing prices are still out of whack compared to rents and incomes.

lower interest rates haven't lowered mortgage rates...

Very true. I definitely didn't mean short term...

canuckrookie · Nov 6, 2008

Quote from stock_trad3r:

he is wrong

we're facing deflation, which is bullish. Oil and commodities are falling. The liquidity infusions are not going to transform into inflation anytime soon.

Aren't you supposed to be pumping stocks?

TraderD · Nov 12, 2008

Quote from flyingiguana:

i expect another round of deleveraging in 2009 that could give a bottom in real estate and many other hard asset classes as well. stay liquid, stay nimble...

Hm, but what if current round of deleveraging has anticipated the future round? I am not smart for this, but the funds might have learned their lessons and now may be doing better due diligence. They may get an idea from what assets future blows may come. Why not get rid of these assets now?

flyingiguana · Nov 15, 2008

Quote from TraderD:

Hm, but what if current round of deleveraging has anticipated the future round? I am not smart for this, but the funds might have learned their lessons and now may be doing better due diligence. They may get an idea from what assets future blows may come. Why not get rid of these assets now?

deleveraging is forced sales. everything basically drops like it did during the week of oct 24th. carry trade and gold took a nosedive.

the next round of deleveraging could be a move towards gold instead of treasuries or another big drop for gold/stocks pushing the usd/jpy below 80. hard to say because things like that just pop.

i'm taking an educated guess this occurs in january after the s&p goes up to 1100 after NFM numbers come out for nov. guess a santa clause rally might depend on how good the turkey is this year

SteveD · Nov 16, 2008

Gold is and always has been a "greater fool" investment...offers no income, no commercial value...just hype from gold bugs, LOL

Real estate commercial values will go to over 10 cap rate or higher for class B or below....

If one can get 4% in a CD with NO RISK why would one invest in a shopping center paying 6% with some risk and no inflation to bail you out.....what is going to cause the value to increase....

The entire country is over built in commercial real estate...will take several years to adjust to normal....

SteveD

flyingiguana · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from SteveD:

Gold is and always has been a "greater fool" investment...offers no income, no commercial value...just hype from gold bugs, LOL

Real estate commercial values will go to over 10 cap rate or higher for class B or below....

If one can get 4% in a CD with NO RISK why would one invest in a shopping center paying 6% with some risk and no inflation to bail you out.....what is going to cause the value to increase....

The entire country is over built in commercial real estate...will take several years to adjust to normal....

SteveD

gold cycles like other commodities...