Inflation... Free money or excessive profits?

[countryBoy641]

Why are you talking about McDonald's?

Because the McDonalds "study" was done with a predetermined outcome - that ALL mcdonalds have enough profit to raise wages.
But the study was done at company owned McDonalds, which is different model from franchises (which is the vast majority of McDonalds).
Statistics can be very creative.

 

[nrstrader]

I have been trying to figure out the soft landing scenario too but I just think things are so tricky.

The UK is projecting their peak unemployment in 2025. Of course, no one is that great at projecting macro economics that far forward but I think it puts the timeline in perspective.

The copper breakout is good to see for sure but sentiment is so negative and just waiting for something to implode it feels like we almost have no choice but to rally in almost everything when nothing has broke.

If things improve from here though that will all be inflationary and that is the miserable feedback loop we haven't had to think about in 30 years.

Those are astounding employment numbers in Canada though. I would still have to think the main driver of that is we haven't had a recession that clears the market in 13 years and we have a hang over of cheap capital with a massive over supply of inefficient business. That ultimately is good for unemployment but bad for growth.

It seems like the Bank of Canada is not going to try to keep up with the Fed rate hikes and that would seem to also be inflationary for Canada. I am not sure what kind of pressure that spread widening puts on Canadian banks either.

Even if the economy slows down by design, it's no doubt going to be a soft landing here. US I have no idea might be worse then Canada because we peaked at 6.9% inflation and our commodity areas will do well in this environment. Europe has a problem this winter due to energy stuff but it'll rectify eventually. Might be an opportunity to buy cheap if I knew the stocks better. Asian markets put in a noticeable bottom Thursday overnight based on the idea Covid reopening is coming and things just got too low too fast. Copper price surge to me is a possible sign this is real. Still a trade though for now that can fail.