Inflation at 53-year low as QE money printing rages unabated!

What debasement would that be? The dollar is at it's highest point in 5 years. And it's going to go higher. You can't even get your sarcasm correct!

As it continues to rise, we'll see how that affects the trade balance. The Fed already made a second hand comment about the strength of the dollar.
 
What debasement would that be? The dollar is at it's highest point in 5 years. And it's going to go higher. You can't even get your sarcasm correct!

As it continues to rise, we'll see how that affects the trade balance. The Fed already made a second hand comment about the strength of the dollar.
My post was for jem's benefit. I thought if I put a wink at the end of it, it would spoil the fun.
 
I wonder how long it will take for a Fed head to accept Modern Monetary Theory, specifically the part about how the banks don't lend reserves.

If the Fed had wanted higher inflation, they would have advocated a lowering of the tax burden on the those with a higher marginal propensity to consume rather than all this QE garbage.

I still can't believe people are worried about the debt when you can issue your own currency. (If you understand the Children of the Corn movies, you'll understand these people.)

I'd guess it'll take 10 years for MMT to show up in the classroom and another 10 years for it to become mainstream.
 
Yeah, why worry about debt when you can issue your own currency, right? Every single country on this list that defaulted had it's own currency.

As for wanting inflation - congress could have just issued everyone a check for $40,000 (the equivalent of all that QE). That would have done it.
 
Yeah, why worry about debt when you can issue your own currency, right? Every single country on this list that defaulted had it's own currency.

As for wanting inflation - congress could have just issued everyone a check for $40,000 (the equivalent of all that QE). That would have done it.
I agree in part. Even if our debt is mostly to ourselves (intergenerational transfer), even if it is denominated in our own currency, there can still be too much of it, though opinions differ on how much is too much. If government prints too much to pay a vast number of bond redeemers (assuming the maturity profile is unfavorable), then it's flooding the economy with currency that will be spent, generating inflation.

I disagree with the $40k gift idea. People will come to expect it next time there's a slump. Moral hazard, they may start living as if there will be one. Imo it would be better to create phony jobs (if there's no real work to be done) and give those away.
 
I agree in part. Even if our debt is mostly to ourselves (intergenerational transfer), even if it is denominated in our own currency, there can still be too much of it, though opinions differ on how much is too much. If government prints too much to pay a vast number of bond redeemers (assuming the maturity profile is unfavorable), then it's flooding the economy with currency that will be spent, generating inflation.

I disagree with the $40k gift idea. People will come to expect it next time there's a slump. Moral hazard, they may start living as if there will be one. Imo it would be better to create phony jobs (if there's no real work to be done) and give those away.

Oh, I wasn't advocating writing everyone a check. But it certainly isn't any worse an idea than QE was. Moral Hazard was created regardless, it's just that banks now expect it.
 
Not exactly the same - you and he are on the same page. Adjust semantics so it seems innocuous. However, leading up to the question, he describes it just fine. "We go into the computer and add a few numbers to the accounts". So yeah, you're not running the printing press and minting fresh $100 bills, it's just done electronically. Give it up already. Here's Bullard admitting it as well.



LOL, ok.



It's not exactly that simple to get hyperinflation. If there was credit demand and the money was leaving the balance sheets of the banks in order to be lent out, and that money was driving demand for goods and services, you'd see a huge spike in inflation. But because it isn't - because it's resting there and instead being used to increase leverage and drive risk assets for return, all you've seen is a rise in asset prices with no demand follow up. Ie, just because housing prices rebounded and all those hedge funds decided to get into the rental market (and now rent homes as investment companies) it didn't drive more buyers to the housing market - outside of the funds. All that was done is to create a bubble in prices - which, once the funds begin to bail (and they have) will bust all over again. It's not healthy demand creation.




It doesn't matter what the Fed buys. I don't understand why you cannot grasp this. Whatever they buy, they give money for - money which gets used for something else. So they might as well have done so on their own and just bought the end asset. If they buy crap from the banks, they free up money the banks have to use elsewhere. I won't even get into the "discounted securities" argument, because that's a load of bunk. They paid pretty close to top dollar, and then gave the banks a dealer commission for selling the stuff, and then pay interest on the money they gave the banks which is parked at the Fed. Quite a deal.

Also remember that any bank can borrow money at essentially 0% and turn that money into returns by buying assets. If I could borrow an almost limitless amount of free money and then just buy bonds yielding 3%, that's "essentially printing money" too.



Extraordinary is the understatement of the decade.



How do you get that these securities are illiquid? When the Fed buys the 7 year or the 10 year notes, or even recently issued Treasury debt of any denomination (as it does frequently) that's not illiquid securities! In fact, there have frequently been issues in liquidity in the market because the Fed has bought so much, and everyone else now has to scramble to find good collateral whenever there are market stress issues - a situation the Fed has created.

The Fed will never sell them off, because it will never be able to without shocking the market. And by never, I mean 5-10 years out. Who knows what happens after that, or if there's not some sort of financial catastrophe and what the lunatics do then.



Again, worthless doesn't matter. The Fed created money, and then gave that money to the banks (which the banks turned around and did other things with). It created money. Printing or electronically, it doesn't matter. Money was created. Vast sums of it.



Not necessarily. That would depend on the velocity of money. Feel free to educate yourself with Hussman's viewpoint on it.



The Fed won't be able to do anything to combat inflation until they accept the fact that when they do, they will pop the bubbles they created. And they are unwilling to do so. This is why Bullard panicked when the S+P just recently fell 4%. A measly 4% after a more than 200% run up, and Bullard begins to panic.

See where Bullard calls for an end to accommodation, but then panics after the market responds. Proving without a doubt the only metric the Fed is looking at is the market.

20141028_EOD4_0.jpg




That was to illustrate how hilarious Bernanke is in the public's eye, and to show you how the man contradicts himself regularly - admitting that they are printing. "So, you're printing money?" "In effect, yes."
Very nice reponse Tao. I appreciate it, though I disagree on a number of points, naturally. I am not inclined to go through point by point at the moment, dinner is to be served soon. But let me just address a few of the main points.

I totally agree that you don't see inflation, at least partly because of where much, but not all by any means, of the money went. That is to say, where it is resting for the moment, and as you say, that relates to money velocity. But I disagree when you suggest that means trouble down the road. It could , as we both realize. I maintain, however, that the Fed has ample tools to deal with it. Let's just agree to disagree on that. It's just opinions anyway, and we both know what they're worth.

I think you should stop calling the QE "printing". It's in accurate. QE is reversible, and intended to be so, printing isn't.

You misunderstood when I mentioned securities being temporarily illiquid. I wasn't referring to Treasuries. (I deserve a little credit here; I'm not not a bloody idiot.) I was referring to the securities that the Fed took off the banks' hands that were not Treasuries, but things like CDOs. These where temporarily illiquid, and that's why the Fed took them. Otherwise, by the rules, the Banks would not have been able to meet their reserve requirement. And that was quite unconventional. Normally the Fed wouldn't touch stuff like that.

If Bullard "panicked" when the S&P fell 4%, what did he do when it went further to down 10%?

Incidentally, do you think we will get a double bottom in the S&P after the election?
 
Last edited:
I wonder how long it will take for a Fed head to accept Modern Monetary Theory, specifically the part about how the banks don't lend reserves.

If the Fed had wanted higher inflation, they would have advocated a lowering of the tax burden on the those with a higher marginal propensity to consume rather than all this QE garbage.

I still can't believe people are worried about the debt when you can issue your own currency. (If you understand the Children of the Corn movies, you'll understand these people.)

I'd guess it'll take 10 years for MMT to show up in the classroom and another 10 years for it to become mainstream.
BY MMT, are you referring to Friedman's idea that you could control inflation by controlling the money supply directly? If so, that was tried, and it did become mainstream, for awhile at least. But it didn't work as well as he had predicted it would. The Fed then went back to controlling interest rates as a means of controlling inflation.
 
Very nice reponse Tao. I appreciate it, though I disagree on a number of points, naturally. I am not inclined to go through point by point at the moment, dinner is to be served soon. But let me just address a few of the main points.

I totally agree that you don't see inflation, at least partly because of where much, but not all by any means, of the money went. That is to say, where it is resting for the moment, and as you say, that relates to money velocity. But I disagree when you suggest that means trouble down the road. It could , as we both realize. I maintain, however, that the Fed has ample tools to deal with it. Let's just agree to disagree on that. It's just opinions anyway, and we both know what they're worth.

I think you should stop calling the QE "printing". It's in accurate. QE is reversible, and intended to be so, printing isn't.

You misunderstood when I mentioned securities being temporarily illiquid. I wasn't referring to Treasuries. (I deserve a little credit here; I'm not not a bloody idiot.) I was referring to the securities that the Fed took off the banks' hands that were not Treasuries, but things like CDOs. These where temporarily illiquid, and that's why the Fed took them. Otherwise, by the rules, the Banks would not have been able to meet their reserve requirement. And that was quite unconventional. Normally the Fed wouldn't touch stuff like that.

If Bullard "panicked" when the S&P fell 4%, what did he do when it went further to down 10%?

Incidentally, do you think we will get a double bottom in the S&P after the election?

We have already seen inflation, that's the first point. No, the CPI has maintained an even keel, but many food stuffs are far more expensive in the last 5 years. Some of this, as Ricter likes to point out, is due to things like drought, famine, etc., and he's right. But others are due to cost-push inflation. The reserves at the Fed may, or may not cause inflation. On this we agree.

As for QE being reversible, it's only reversible in theory. The Fed won't be able to reverse it any time soon (again, in the next decade) without a systemic shock. They may get this shock anyway, regardless.

And double bottom in the S+P, where? This last correction?
 
Back
Top