Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Just a follow up to my earlier post about this method working so well and it coming down to trade management. (Thanks for suggestion Tractor). I took 11 trades today, one of which was a revenge trade. My win % was 45. (55% if I didnt revenge trade)

I ended up 2.5 pts which is ok, but with proper PA management, the winning trades I took total of potential profit was 33.5pts. If I was fully stopped out for 2pts on the 6 losers for 12pts and was able to keep in the game for 2/3's of the total 33.5 points, I would have been around 10pts profit on the day. Just something to think about. Once you get the entries on point, the trade management is just as important.
 
Quote from xburbx:

Just a follow up to my earlier post about this method working so well and it coming down to trade management. (Thanks for suggestion Tractor). I took 11 trades today, one of which was a revenge trade. My win % was 45. (55% if I didnt revenge trade)

I ended up 2.5 pts which is ok, but with proper PA management, the winning trades I took total of potential profit was 33.5pts. If I was fully stopped out for 2pts on the 6 losers for 12pts and was able to keep in the game for 2/3's of the total 33.5 points, I would have been around 10pts profit on the day. Just something to think about. Once you get the entries on point, the trade management is just as important.
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Do you have an average ES point value per day over a period of time?

Me trying to use mean reversion, I've pretty much broken even as I mentioned before. I think my entries and trade management with this method need work.
 
Potential points per day or over a period of trades? Over that last 50 trades I had a max profit potential of 116pts. Thats assuming I could get every single trade that exceeds 3pts to max profit. If every other trade of those 50 were completely stopped out with an average stop of 1.5 (which is my average stop) it would equal 46.5 pts. This is assuming I got stopped everytime and maxed out every 3+ pt run. This is the part I am working on which is trade management. I know I can't capture all of the 116, but I'd like to see 2/3's of it. AHG has really helped me with that end of it. Hard to sweat it out though.

*ESR has a much better sense of this in regards to treating entries as scalps until proven differently, and therefor can get out of trades with smaller stops and reduce his risk exposure.

Quote from forrestang:

Do you have an average ES point value per day over a period of time?

Me trying to use mean reversion, I've pretty much broken even as I mentioned before. I think my entries and trade management with this method need work.
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Quote from MrGiggs:

I downloaded a demo version from a broker a couple days ago. and I was reading about strategies and how to start with this software, I found a strategy that seems to work but I can't decide if is dependable or not. the whole thing is you make an order without setting stop loss and you set your gain profit about 20 - 30 pips. It is supoused to reach that level at some time, however I'm not sure. what do you guys think?
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Anyone heard of "The Secret" by Rhonda Byrne? Which is basically about how you can "attract" the things you want in life with positive thinking and focus. Conversely you can attract negative things into your life by thinking and focusing on them. (If my understanding is correct).

I think this type of self programming is great, it really helps you to focus on your goals through certain exercises and is the key to success for many people and has been a great influence on me

Now you're probably wondering where I am going with this... A trader I know having great faith in this thinking decided that setting a stop was attracting negativity, that if he set a stop loss he was saying to the universe that he doesnt truly believe in this trade and that by the law of attraction this negative thinking would take his stop out. Using this as a basis for his trading he decided to not use a stop loss at all. Now I would love to say he fought the good fight and made millions, but im sure as most of you are reading this your thinking he must have blown his account in a month....actually he blew it in a week : )

Trading without a stop loss should be a criminal offence! Even if you want to give your trade room to breathe use a big stop loss, or adjust your stop loss but make sure you use a stop loss to protect you against the unknown, power cuts, internet cut, freak news etc.

You are inviting devastating Black Swans into your life without one.
 
I dont mean to post off topic, but if anyone knows of a good daily update for the ES in regards to what kind of day to expect, let me know. I had a source from a lady that was posting daily outlooks on if we should expect a trending day, ranging day and why. Just curious if anyone has a reliable source they are satisfied with. I think this would help a lot with knowing when to really expect to take more trades (ranging) vs when to really be picky for reversal (trending) and dynamic s/r. I know there are signs to look for like weekly and daily TA patterns, but I am looking for a broader view that isnt 100% TA based.
 
Quote from ESResistance:



Now you're probably wondering where I am going with this... A trader I know having great faith in this thinking decided that setting a stop was attracting negativity, that if he set a stop loss he was saying to the universe that he doesnt truly believe in this trade and that by the law of attraction this negative thinking would take his stop out. Using this as a basis for his trading he decided to not use a stop loss at all. Now I would love to say he fought the good fight and made millions, but im sure as most of you are reading this your thinking he must have blown his account in a month....actually he blew it in a week : )

Trading without a stop loss should be a criminal offence! Even if you want to give your trade room to breathe use a big stop loss, or adjust your stop loss but make sure you use a stop loss to protect you against the unknown, power cuts, internet cut, freak news etc.

You are inviting devastating Black Swans into your life without one.
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I don't think I ever read this thread before.

I am curious about your interest in S/R. Have you ever tested it exhaustively to see if it actually outperforms, or is it more something you believe is true?
 
Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade
.
Good trading all
 

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Quote from forrestang:

The responses to this aren't going to be good. I don't know if you're joking or not:confused:
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I don't know how bad the strategy is, I just found it reading and wanted to ask before doing something stupid...I'm learning how the FX market works, but anyways tx for the reply.
 
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