Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Quote from quest43:

ES your numbers are right on again. Couple of questions for you. Are you using bollinger band extremes for both price and the TICK? Can someone please help me find or tell me where to go get the TICK on Ninjatrader? I know they have it I just cannot find where it is. Thanks for you help in advance and keep up the good work. One more question. I am sure you heard this question before but I must ask. Are most of your trades countertrend? Thanks again

I had problems getting the tick on tradestation ($TICK) but it turned out that I needed to pay an extra $1 a month for data. Might be worth calling NJ to make sure you get live data.
 
Quote from xburbx:

In order to get the TICK you need to check with your broker. The symbol on NT for me is ^TICK.

Just a note that I found important today in regards to ESR's trading style. I went back through Fridays data and found 17 playable trades with this style that included a TICK extreme. I found 4 that could have been false signals. If managed properly, that is a very high win/loss ratio. It is about 78%. This is not including premarket trades, but does include an intraday line I chose and direct plays of the .5 fib and PP that I put lines up for. Either way, very strong.

Im also going to post some trades I take of this style and post on youtube.
Are you going to post the link for youtube here so we can see the video
 
Here are 2 trades that I had to go back to on a replay from NT. I would be curious to see how ESR would have entered them and managed them. I couldnt get the youtube quality to be clear enough to view so I had to just put it up for download

1. The bigger file of the two shows a trade that was almost taken in the first 2 min at the tick extreme and price seemed to pull back but there was a bit of divergence on the tick. Would be curious to know how ESR would have done on that at the false signal. It then drops down to the good signal.

2. The smaller file shows a pretty clear entrance to the trade and I thought it was clear when the bears overtook the bulls.

* ESR said he likes to enter when the TICK is at its extreme and I find it hard to do because price usually looks like it is still pushing forward. It is usually when it pulls of the extreme that price looks like it is pulling back. Not sure if he has advice for that. Entering at the tick extreme seems to give an awesome entry but also harder to do.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/ccbb2i

http://www.sendspace.com/file/8djdie
 
What program reads those two files? I downloaded them, but couldn't find anything to open them up. Windows Media Player didn't open them. Thanks.
 
Quote from xburbx:

This might work for people that cant view that file format

http://www.sendspace.com/file/vg02km

http://www.sendspace.com/file/ce0mqy

these are the 16th

BTW those are on the 14th.

I took the one at 11:15, great trade.

The one at 14:11 looked like a true breakout of a smaller range and possibly a long candidate on a retracement. The move just seemed too vertical to short for me although it would have worked out.

The attached chart shows where it had a tick extreme @ 14:28 on the retracement. The price just touched the lower BB but it was at the previous pivot high. They're better if they pierce the BB but I will take these trades all day long.
 

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This chart from the Jan 16th shows where this method is a fantastic way to get on board the trend. Although there isn't an exact number to work with like a pivot high or low you are looking at an area of resistance. On the 3 min chart that retracement just touched the 20 ma.
 

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Quote from Tractorboy:

This chart from the Jan 16th shows where this method is a fantastic way to get on board the trend. Although there isn't an exact number to work with like a pivot high or low you are looking at an area of resistance. On the 3 min chart that retracement just touched the 20 ma.

very nice chart, what is being shown? ES?

what is in the 2nd panel?,

very smart move to put a bollenger on the 2nd panel, very smart move

is this a 15min interval chart? (that's what it seems)
 
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