Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

[JSSPMK]

OK, I still think it's a bit of apples & oranges. On the other hand people that use indicators disregarding support/resistance levels are a different matter, they are the ones that must find it plain impossible to even get to a breakeven stage.

So how do you decide whether to sell resistance, do nothing or expect a breakout? Some read tape, some use indicators, some simply look at price patterns, etc. Basically, it's what price does near those key areas, how you interpret it is another issue.

Quote from Preacher Man:

G'day JSSPMK

Not necessarily..... for the title to be valid, S/R could actually be included in the statement, "Indicators are liars". It just so happens that, based on experience, the contributors to this thread (including the OP) have found that S/R levels 'lie' less than most other indicators.

Your point about money management being the real key is absolutely spot-on... in fact, Dr Van Thrap gives an illustration of completely random entries being profitable with skillful money management.

In the absence of the OP (currently in Vegas), I have taken the liberty of quoting him to give a more complete explanation of his point:





Catchya m8
Preach.

 

[bbqbbq]

Quote from Preacher Man:

G'day Barbeque x2

Here's the best (IMHO) market profile site: http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=3319&whichpage=4 The rest of this site is worth looking through - there's a lot of excellent stuff there.

There is a way to merge daily MP figures to give longer range MP, but I haven't used this.

As far as your question about how to use the MP figures, you're exactly right - Market Profile is widely used and therefore these figures will often provide strong S/R levels.

Preach

thanks preacher for confirming my suspicons! that topic will help out fine now I can at least double check the numbers
ive been using daily data from the OP for confluence possibility lately and wondering whether weekly or monthly data were worth looking for. seeing as it seems those are less used, they probably wouldnt work that well. I also use mathematical pivots price outside 1 min bb, tick bb and mas to spot confluence. basically i dont look for setups now with one level, but with 2 or even 3 levels when looking for a countertrend trade, still new to this though!

 

[Preacher Man]

Quote from bbqbbq:

I also use mathematical pivots price outside 1 min bb, tick bb and mas to spot confluence. basically i dont look for setups now with one level, but with 2 or even 3 levels when looking for a countertrend trade, still new to this though!

You're welcome m8

Wow... that sounds real complicated. I don't put as much energy into it as you (refer to my signature line) - I like to keep it simple and clear. Just like ESR has said a few times... keep it simple and look for the obvious points that everyone else can see.

If you make it too complicated, you risk being the only one who sees a particular level, which in itself is self-defeating - you want the maximum number of people using your levels. Just pick an obvious level and be super-disciplined with your money and trade management.

Good trading m8,
Preach.

 

[xburbx]

Here is another example of what I thought looked like a good setup. I didnt take the trade because the S line at 850 had been broken prior in the same screen, but if I took it, it would have yielded a nice return. Hopefully when ESR gets back from LV he can confirm this setup and the last one I posted to let us know if these setups are what he is looking for.

 

[cunparis]

Quote from xburbx:

Here is another example of what I thought looked like a good setup. I didnt take the trade because the S line at 850 had been broken prior in the same screen, but if I took it, it would have yielded a nice return. Hopefully when ESR gets back from LV he can confirm this setup and the last one I posted to let us know if these setups are what he is looking for.

That is cool that you posted this trade. I actually took it, but without using any charts, just by looking at the "tape". I'm at work and I can keep an eye on price but I can't have charts up on my computer. I was long and got stopped out under 850 so I reversed, got stopped out again so I went long.

Your chart really clears up what I was seeing in the price and i'm sure I could have done better with the chart.

Moral of the story: Don't trade from work without charts.

 

[cashmoney69]

Indicators are just another way of showing price.

 

[Preacher Man]

Quote from cashmoney69:

Indicators are just another way of showing price.

Deep, man... real deep.......
Got me thinking.....
If a loptop in the middle of a huge forrest is showing a chart of the ES with an indicator showing a buy signal... but there's no-one there to see it... is it really indicating anything at all..?

Sleep deprivation is a terrible thing

 

[pismo10]

I guess he's on vacation..

 

[cunparis]

Quote from pismo10:

I guess he's on vacation..

Las Vegas I believe I read.

Since our trading range hasn't changed much over the last few days I'm just using the last set of pivots. Plus I draw out some pivot lines from the last few days.

Anyone making money this week? I manage to get ahead and move stops to breakeven and then get stopped out. It has happened several times now. Maybe I'm not being realistic expecting a big move up or down to stick. We're really stuck in a micro trading range..

 

[ESResistance]

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade
.
Good trading all