Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini
- Thread starter ESResistance
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Hi everyone
Please find attached todays levels.
Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays
Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.
Good trading all in the wild wild west..
Please find attached todays levels.
Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays
Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.
Good trading all in the wild wild west..
Its a wild one today folks. Getting todays levels together was hard work.
If you are trading, best to use larger stops than normal to allow for the volatility.
899.25 level caught a very nice short at 9:46
the 841.50 level wasnt too far of the low either. A trading buddy of mine who normally uses a 2 point stop is trading with a 10 point stop at the moment!
Stops are getting slipped all over the place. So please exercise great caution.
Good trading all.
If you are trading, best to use larger stops than normal to allow for the volatility.
899.25 level caught a very nice short at 9:46
the 841.50 level wasnt too far of the low either. A trading buddy of mine who normally uses a 2 point stop is trading with a 10 point stop at the moment!
Stops are getting slipped all over the place. So please exercise great caution.
Good trading all.
I don't remember where, but I distinctly remember someone making an interesting analogy about using volume as a method of price forecast as being equivalent to attempting to use the number of cars on the road to predict the next turn in said road.
It stuck with me because I realized at that point that I never really had a good reason to believe volume meant anything in the way of predictive ability. Thoughts for or against this? I'm open to arguments, but I felt the above was as good as any I've ever heard....
It stuck with me because I realized at that point that I never really had a good reason to believe volume meant anything in the way of predictive ability. Thoughts for or against this? I'm open to arguments, but I felt the above was as good as any I've ever heard....
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Yeah...nothing wrong with volume analysis.
If someone needs it to make consistent profits...
Keep using it.
However, there are some profitable PA traders that don't need it because they can see the volume in the price itself without the inputs.
Simply, some need inputs to see it while others can see the same information without the inputs.
I've used volume in the past...
Works great.
However, I no longer need it because I have a better understanding of the price action today in comparison to the past.
Yet, undeniable, the prior volume knowledge had a positive impact in that today I don't need it on my charts.
Further, in contrast, my experience is different from yours in that most (not all) of the PA + Volume users at ET are the ones that do the belittling and pretend it's the ONLY way to make consistent profits.
Analogy - Some toys require batteries...
Some don't.
Mark
Price and volume are the strongest & perfectly constant variables in any tradeable market.
Price because it is a perfect reflection of what people are willing to pay, at any given moment, for whatever product they are vying for in a typical auction environment like the Markets.
Volume because it is a perfect relection of the amount of buying or selling at that price, at any given moment, for whatever product they are vying for in a typical auction environment like the Markets.
It isn't that volume, by itself, is a way to predict the price direction or the strength on any chart but these two items are the stable foundation of all technical analysis because they lack any variable nature to their existence.
The person that made the analogy regarding the number of cars on the road and the turns on the road has no grasp of the Market environment. It sounds good but a vehicle's primary purpose is not as a tradeable instrument and the turns are fixed actions created outside that specific environment. That person would make a good spin master for the financial crisis we are in though.
Thanks for the comment, and while the original analogy was general, i'm not sure your comments were specific enough to really be convincing. I know you don't owe it to me to convince me, but I think it's an interesting topic that I would like to develop a firm opinion on.
I do realize a lot of traders rely heavily on volume, but why? Let me remind you that at this point I truly have no opinion either way, but am rather trying to take a DesCartes-eque view on the topic until someone convinces me one way or another; should anyone choose to do so anyway.
What I mean to indicate is, it seems to me that volume represents how many people, or at least how much people are willing to buy and sell at that moment. However, since each sell requires an equal and opposite buy, what does one use the volume figure for? What is its purpose? How does it speak to you? Any examples of how when coupled with anything else, it increases predictive force?
As we've seen in th last couple of weeks, big moves can occur from relatively low volume, so it certainly isn't a requirement to make a market interesting to trade so long as there is enough liquidity.
I do realize a lot of traders rely heavily on volume, but why? Let me remind you that at this point I truly have no opinion either way, but am rather trying to take a DesCartes-eque view on the topic until someone convinces me one way or another; should anyone choose to do so anyway.
What I mean to indicate is, it seems to me that volume represents how many people, or at least how much people are willing to buy and sell at that moment. However, since each sell requires an equal and opposite buy, what does one use the volume figure for? What is its purpose? How does it speak to you? Any examples of how when coupled with anything else, it increases predictive force?
As we've seen in th last couple of weeks, big moves can occur from relatively low volume, so it certainly isn't a requirement to make a market interesting to trade so long as there is enough liquidity.
Volume has no meaning by itself but when merged with price it gives an individual a way to view the free flow of price movement.
Create a 5 minute chart of any of the Indices today and then find a Tick Chart that closely matches it. Finally, if you can, create a 16807 COnstant Volume Bar chart and see the difference in the flow of the charts. Try to keep any indicators off the chart so you can see the pure price flow. Seeing is Believing. Same data but a totally pure way of viewing the flow.
Is you brain wounded? Are you deaf??? I said the poster is from a site that DOES NOT WORK. I was with them a year. Their own forum had people demanding evidence. They gamed their track record, leaving out losses and giving blank stares when challenged on it or even feeling hurt! Even now, the track record is like a year old.
Now they are trying to lure in more people the sneaky way. Why do you think they cannot afford the sponsorship? Because they don't make money!!!
But I am not surprised if you see the value. You probably have no idea how to trade either
My two cents on the potential value of inspecting volume. If observing prices trapped in a price range, prices often poke out of the range but are immediately rejected and thrown back into the range. If you were deciding whether or not a "breakout" is going to be real, volume can be very telling. Some MM's and locals like to start a fake breakout by purposely transacting at the market to break the range. Perhaps only a handful of contracts are traded. A real breakout very often has a full-on battle at the breakout limit with many contracts traded. I believe volume gives clues as to whether or not it is a fake-out or a legitimate move. Don't you ever wonder about your stops that are touched by 1 tick and the move immediately rejected and move back in your favor?
How about inspecting volume as a matter of gauging pace in the market? I notice that light volume and slowly building CVB bars often indicate chop and sideways movement. When the 10,000 CVB bars are tearing across the screen flashing by, it's usually a good indicator that the market is trending strongly (for the moment).
Volume alone cannot describe the entire story of the market. Volume used together with price can help you put together a story of the market to help you trade in the right direction and avoid the wrong direction / sideways chop.
Hope that helps! In the end, we all trade our beliefs. If volume does not help you in any way, no one would force you to trade with it. I happen to believe that volume activity matters in the evaluation of the market story puzzle.
Stone
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