Quote from juve:
Hello F9,
Okay I've been giving some though to what you've been posting in this journal(maybee to much for my own good). If you wouldn't mind clarifying a couple of thoughts for me it me be greatly appreciated.
1) Let's say we are in an uptrend. The market has made HH,HL,HH,HL and now has just made another HH so I'm thinking and waiting for a HL around previous resistance to take a stab at a long. From what I gather this is when you want to see some volume coming in on the ask to give you a heads up that buyers are stepping back into market. Now all of this vice versa for a downtrend? Is this correct?
2) Let's use same example of an uptrend but this time your coming up to a strong level of resistance let's say 1200.00 the high of the day and I'm looking to take a short if I see a High Failure or Double Top on a smaller time frame chart...What should I bee lookking for. In some videos on Market Delta I was watching he was saying if you see action like this
1200.25 0x284
1200.00 185x821
1199.75 730x1872
That this is all supply at resistance.
Now my question to you is how do you distinguish that action taking place at the Ask as being aggressive buying or passive selling?
3) I've seen you mention a few times that this and that is only part of the story. Would you be able to give me an idea of the different things you are looking at for the complete story.
Thank You
juve,
It is all about managing the ODDS
ie ... since this is your post, the odds favour you being a regular poster under a different Username.
Your first question....
You should have made that long trade no later than the second HH HL.
Each price wave spends 70%+ inside a certain range and consumes a certain number of contracts ... more of less.
If the next greater fractal is showing the ask-bid spread to be positive, then you should be buying either the first or second HH,HL based on the price pattern.
If you wait too long, the big MOs will crowd you out of the correct direction but always let you into the incorrect one.
second question....
You will notice on a number of occasions at HOD that the ask-bid spread is weakening.
This does not determine the HOD by itself, you need to add it to your other observations before you act and always remember
"it is the second mouse that gets the cheese"
It is price action PLUS accumulated ask-bid spread that tells the story, always.
And you bring forwards key info from preceding days.
ie .. over the last 44 days there have been 19 occasions where acc ask-bid spread and the close/open signalled a reversal the next day and a follow through signal that worked on half those occasions for the second day.
what has been the outcome......
18 signals corrected picked the next days open/close direction and the 19th was a very narrow open/close on a wide range.
Why not trade MOO to MOC.
Because the drawdowns are crippling.
And so the real purpose of the signal is to show the underlying direction of the day.
Same thing works on shorter periods, but not too short ...ie it will tell you where the afternoon is heading.
"being aggressive buying or passive selling"
I mentioned before, put up a one tic range chart and compare it to the volume at bid-ask.
regards
f9
