Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Quote from fearless9:
Glad to be of help Johno.
ES is a streaming input of FIFO orders at the bid and at the ask.
They impact upon each other on the DOM causing price to move tic by tic.
More than 85% of the contracts are placed by less than 12% of the strikes which means that ES is driven by volume. ( 1 strike of 900 contracts will overwhelm 500 strikes of 1 contract at the same price) one strike = one order by the way.
Bring up a range chart of one tic value and plot the volume at the bid and at the ask alongside and slowly scroll through.
Look for overwhelming vol one way or another and look which way the price moves.
You are looking into the heart of ES.
Probably best to do this in the weekend or when things are quiet if you wish to retain your sanity.
regards
f9

That's why those PA purist will eventually adopt Volume Analysis...



usually when they grew beyond a one piker... they would realize there is an invisible force lurking in there... upsetting their PA theory at the most embarrassing moments...
 
Quote from Tums:

That's why those PA purist will eventually adopt Volume Analysis...
usually when they grew beyond a one piker... they would realize there is an invisible force lurking in there... upsetting their PA theory at the most embarrassing moments...

I agree. I adopt a mix of the two PA/Volume.
Price Action is amazing but if you can't read the relative strength of each of the cyclic oscillations then all of the subjective predictions of the PA moves are meaningless or at least inconsistent.
 
Time for break.
That was quite a ride started bit after 9:50 to around 10:10 ... bit like white water rafting grade4+ trying not to touch the canyon walls.

Volume...............
Volume is a clock that is constantly running in my mind
ie 20K contracts and the price will still not move..... are we showing LH, HL etc ...
the breakout is going to start from the opposite side of channel, within a tic or two of where my stop will place on a bracket entry ..... my risk is minimal but my reward is somewhere between untouched and increasing ... probably out beyond 7:1 based on past experience.

oops.... we have a failure one tic inside the opposite support line, so brace yourself chicos we are now hot and running.


this is how I treat volume.... it is a constant running clock.

bye bye
regards
f9
 
just to continue the ramblings before I melt into the ether.

around 10:31 price hit an old friend (resistance) at 91.25 and despite throwing almost 30K at the adventure it failed at 92.00
Suddenly 8k lifted price to within one tic of 92.00 where a group of shorts were planted and it was driven back 10 tics within a minute.

after more than 20k of going nowhere it made a base at 88.75 and pushed up a few tics beyond 92 where it currently sits under a roof at 93.50 ( do not get excited by extreme tic values ie 94.00

regards
f9
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

A good (profitable) pure PA trader can see the volume in the price without any volume inputs.

:cool:

Mark

And a good & SMART (profitable) pure PA trader can see the volume in the price using Constant Volume/Share Bar charts and limits their risk even further.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

And a good & SMART (profitable) pure PA trader can see the volume in the price using Constant Volume/Share Bar charts and limits their risk even further.

I actually quite like share bars. playing around with them at the moment. Interesting debate guys.
 
Quote from fearless9:

just to continue the ramblings before I melt into the ether.

around 10:31 price hit an old friend (resistance) at 91.25 and despite throwing almost 30K at the adventure it failed at 92.00
Suddenly 8k lifted price to within one tic of 92.00 where a group of shorts were planted and it was driven back 10 tics within a minute.

after more than 20k of going nowhere it made a base at 88.75 and pushed up a few tics beyond 92 where it currently sits under a roof at 93.50 ( do not get excited by extreme tic values ie 94.00

regards
f9

yup
 

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Quote from NihabaAshi:
A good (profitable) pure PA trader can see the volume in the price without any volume inputs.
:cool:
Mark
I absolutely agree.



also... a good trader can see the ticks play out without using a tick chart.
Can he say he does not use ticks?
Can he say tick chart is useless?



I have watched profitable PA traders in action... And I can tell you they read volume for sure. i.e. they were doing Volume Analysis in real time!
edit: Only the "holier-than-thou purists" would deny and belittle volume analysis. ;-)>
 
Quote from Tums:

I absolutely agree.



also... a good trader can see the ticks play out without using a tick chart.
Can he say he does not use ticks?
Can he say tick chart is useless?



I have watched profitable PA traders in action... And I can tell you they read volume for sure. i.e. he was doing Volume Analysis in real time!
Only the "purists" would deny and belittle volume analysis. ;-)>

Yeah...nothing wrong with volume analysis.

If someone needs it to make consistent profits...

Keep using it.

However, there are some profitable PA traders that don't need it because they can see the volume in the price itself without the inputs.

Simply, some need inputs to see it while others can see the same information without the inputs.

I've used volume in the past...

Works great.

However, I no longer need it because I have a better understanding of the price action today in comparison to the past.

Yet, undeniable, the prior volume knowledge had a positive impact in that today I don't need it on my charts.

Further, in contrast, my experience is different from yours in that most (not all) of the PA + Volume users at ET are the ones that do the belittling and pretend it's the ONLY way to make consistent profits.

Analogy - Some toys require batteries...

Some don't.

:cool:

Mark
 
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