Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Paper trading IS NOT trading.

there is no monetary punishment for being wrong when you are paper trading. and there can be selective memory on positions, conveniently forgetting some big losers because you don't get a real money PnL at the end of the session.

there is no understanding of how a losing position and fat red number affects your psychological condition.

until you can understand (and learn to control) your reactions to real-time money at risk, you are not trading.

Of course, some understanding of potential trades for whatever reasons is needed before actual money is put in play, but don't ever kid yourself, paper trading, even in a sim account where you are executing real-time "fake" trades, IS NOT trading. it is playing make pretend.

"Markets are never wrong; opinions are." -J.L.Livermore
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Paper trading IS NOT trading.
More...

V3

People introduce themselves here at ET as "Traders" when it is obvious and evident that they are not trading REAL MONEY

Since ET is not my forum and since I have little or no interest in almost all the threads pertaining to "trading" I treat each Punter as they introduce themselves.

Correct me please if I am wrong but this OP refers to him/herself as a "trader" because that is how he/she views them self.

Therefore out of courtesy I use the word "trader" since I would not dream of injuring anyone's feelings ... particularily on a Monday morning.

regards
f9
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Paper trading IS NOT trading.

there is no monetary punishment for being wrong when you are paper trading. and there can be selective memory on positions, conveniently forgetting some big losers because you don't get a real money PnL at the end of the session.

there is no understanding of how a losing position and fat red number affects your psychological condition.

until you can understand (and learn to control) your reactions to real-time money at risk, you are not trading.

Of course, some understanding of potential trades for whatever reasons is needed before actual money is put in play, but don't ever kid yourself, paper trading, even in a sim account where you are executing real-time "fake" trades, IS NOT trading. it is playing make pretend.

"Markets are never wrong; opinions are." -J.L.Livermore
More...


I happen to be a proponent of back testing and paper trading.

We all know trading is a much about “self” and “trading discipline” above all else.

Therefore, back testing is a very good first step to provide the confidence to stay with your approach thru good times and bad. Without this foundation, discipline is likely to be even harder than it already is

Paper trading is a good second step, because you can see how easy or difficult it is to execute your plan in real life? Are your trade entries and exits easy to read in real time? Can you get realistic fills according to your back testing assumptions etc?

I’m not sure enough traders take the time to go through this important process before they begin to trade.

Finally, there is a component to back testing that I think is very important.

We all make trading mistakes, and experience trading difficulties- some of these mental, some of them market imposed.

Therefore, I think back testing should show results that allow you to build in an inefficiency multiplier in the equation so you can still expect to come out ahead in the long run if you trade “less than perfect”

If your back testing requires perfect execution to come out ahead, (ie- never missing a trade), then in real trading you will never come out ahead because it is very hard to “trade perfect.”

That’s why I got concerned when I saw a starting point of 30 mechanical trades with 50-50 results that resulted in an overall negative outcome with scaling out trade management

That doesn’t put you at the starting gate with a very good chance for real success

With 50-50 back testing results, you must have your winners far exceed your losers, and you still must see that you don’t have to catch every winning trade in order to still come out ahead.

If you can get your results up to 75 percent (price moves slightly your way after entry and/or you are able to exit your total position quickly after entry without sustaining your maximum loss), then I think a scaling out approach as suggested here begins to make more sense as you start to consider adaptring such a strategy for real
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Paper trading IS NOT trading.

there is no monetary punishment for being wrong when you are paper trading. and there can be selective memory on positions, conveniently forgetting some big losers because you don't get a real money PnL at the end of the session.

there is no understanding of how a losing position and fat red number affects your psychological condition.

until you can understand (and learn to control) your reactions to real-time money at risk, you are not trading.

Of course, some understanding of potential trades for whatever reasons is needed before actual money is put in play, but don't ever kid yourself, paper trading, even in a sim account where you are executing real-time "fake" trades, IS NOT trading. it is playing make pretend.

"Markets are never wrong; opinions are." -J.L.Livermore
More...

I agree . . .

Paper trading can and IS fudged on a regular basis. It messes with your mind.
Backtesting is fine to a point but on a small point. Backtesting is only good to give a person a ROUGH idea of a method. It is definately NOT a definitive answer to a method's potential profitability. Only forward testing and lots of it is the only true test of a method but 99% of the traders out there don't have the patience to forward test. They want to run their "simulations" and MAKE MONEY NOW!!!

Simulations aren't REAL-TIME TRADING IN REAL LIVE SITUATIONS WITH REAL LIVE PRESSURE USING REAL LIVE MONEY!
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

....Only forward testing and lots of it is the only true test of a method but 99% of the traders out there don't have the patience to forward test...
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Hi ProfLogic.
Can you please explain what forward testing really is please.
I don't know it, only know about backtesting.
Where can I find info on how to forward test a system ?
Thank you.
 
Quote from ljmlmvlhk:

Hi ProfLogic.
Can you please explain what forward testing really is please.
I don't know it, only know about backtesting.
Where can I find info on how to forward test a system ?
Thank you.
More...


Forward is using the system on a daily basis for your trades.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I agree . . .

Paper trading can and IS fudged on a regular basis. It messes with your mind.
Backtesting is fine to a point but on a small point. Backtesting is only good to give a person a ROUGH idea of a method. It is definately NOT a definitive answer to a method's potential profitability. Only forward testing and lots of it is the only true test of a method but 99% of the traders out there don't have the patience to forward test. They want to run their "simulations" and MAKE MONEY NOW!!!

Simulations aren't REAL-TIME TRADING IN REAL LIVE SITUATIONS WITH REAL LIVE PRESSURE USING REAL LIVE MONEY!
More...

Woudn't you say though that someone should probably paper trade until they can be somewhat succesful on paper. I would think if you can't do it on paper then there is no way you can do it in the real world.

Paul
 
Quote from pclark:

Woudn't you say though that someone should probably paper trade until they can be somewhat succesful on paper. I would think if you can't do it on paper then there is no way you can do it in the real world.

Paul
More...

The above explanation of forward testing is correct.
Another way to look at it is that if you can consistently SEE the reasons to trade and consistently make profit in the market then even paper trading is worthless.

The least expensive place to practice live trading is the QQQ's with a few contracts. There absolutely isn't much rish there.
 
Hi everyone

We are all systems go for another insane day in the markets! Please be extra cautious. Attached levels for today.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

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