Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Hi everyone

Please find attached levels for today Friday 12th September 2008

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Thank you for your support.

Good trading all

ESResistance
 

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Quote from solyaris:

Can you tell me how long you trade and what's your track record? Thank you.

I have been trading just over 2 years fulltime, had a "career" in IT for about 2yrs after uni, working for the man wasnt for me so spent my evenings learning to trade. Overall I have been trading 3yrs or so.

My trades are around 76% successful, not the greatest level of success, I know people that do better. However My risk to reward is on average around 1:2. Which means that my wins are generally twice as big as any loss.
 
Quote from ESResistance:

I have been trading just over 2 years fulltime, had a "career" in IT for about 2yrs after uni, working for the man wasnt for me so spent my evenings learning to trade. Overall I have been trading 3yrs or so.

My trades are around 76% successful, not the greatest level of success, I know people that do better. However My risk to reward is on average around 1:2. Which means that my wins are generally twice as big as any loss.
I appreciatte your frontality in answering my question, but CAGR means Compounded Annual Growth Rate for example you have 140.000 and you began 3 years ago with 100.000 then your CAGR would be (140/100)^(1/3) - 1 = 11.87%. If you don't know or rather not disclosure can you answer me only if you are 1) making money and 2) making more money then having it in a savings account?

And W/L ratio doesn't mean anything really, what matters is positive expected value. You can be right 99% of the time and still lose money.

Cheers
 
Quote from solyaris:

I appreciatte your frontality in answering my question, but CAGR means Compounded Annual Growth Rate for example you have 140.000 and you began 3 years ago with 100.000 then your CAGR would be (140/100)^(1/3) - 1 = 11.87%. If you don't know or rather not disclosure can you answer me only if you are 1) making money and 2) making more money then having it in a savings account?

And W/L ratio doesn't mean anything really, what matters is positive expected value. You can be right 99% of the time and still lose money.

Cheers

dude I just told you my trades are 76% successful and my wins are usually twice as big as any losses....Doesnt that say I make money?

and yes I make more than having a savings account lol.
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

Yes...maybe anyone can plot a s/r level but how to trade it is a completely different story.


Couldn't agree more.

However, the issue is that the process of deriving the info is simple to some that may be via a calculator that does it for you or via visually (implies it's being manually derived).

Currently there are about 5 different threads here at ET with traders discussing s/r levels for over the past few trading days...

From what I've seen, nobody was using the same levels and have mentioned at least once in the past about how easy/simpler it is. :D


That's really interesting. Had skimmed through two or three of those threads without ever paying much attention to their S/R levels, on the assumption that they'd all have come to the same conclusions. Again, assuming they're using visual levels, I think a lot of the variation would come down to extracting S/R levels from different timeframes?...


In addition, via comparing pivot calculator derived s/r areas and visual s/r areas...

One could debate that s/r work being performed by a pivot calculator or s/r software that plots it all for you instantly...

Is the most simplest form due to all the work being done for us (no thinking).

Wouldn't that classify as being the most simple way. :confused:


I would have thought that most traders would place more faith in visually determined levels/pivot points, simply on the basis that they would know that many other traders would be looking at the exact same charts. However, if all pivot calculators determined the same levels, and a fair proportion of ES traders were using them, then again, they'd have confidence in a consensus agreement. Of course, this all assumes either trend or counter-trend trading. More abstract trading systems could certainly depend on calculated levels.


In contrast, I've seen where others say deriving s/r levels via visually analyzing the data (more thinking in comparison to letting a calculator do it for you) is easier/simpler.

That's my point...it's just a matter of perspective about what's really easy or not and that' directly related to the trader even if its a 10 year old kid.

Yet, I've met profitable traders doing both (pivot calculator or visual).

An analogy...there are traders that ONLY use one monitor for trading.

Yet, others use multiple monitors for trading.

Aren't using multiple monitors too much work (not easy) in comparison to using only one monitor for trading ???

Is it possible that one monitor may be reducing one's trade opportunities by it's own limitations of not having enough screen area ???

Are there traders that have the ability to process more information from multiple monitors in comparison to others using only one monitor ???

A few things to think about. :cool:


Again, interesting point. I agree that simplicity and ease are subjective; the most basic system could seem absolutely overwhelming to a novice, whereas a world class trader/athlete could make the most complex tasks appear effortless.

As for the monitors analogy, that's more a question of style than substance?... I imagine the trader who uses just one monitor finds it easier to narrow his focus, whereas one who relies on multiple monitors finds trading easier when he has more information on which to base his trade decisions. Although both may ultimately achieve the same ease in trading, I suspect the second trader would face a steeper learning curve, having to absorb and assimilate information from more sources.


Precise levels...hmm.

The fact that many swear that their s/r levels is simple and precise makes me wonder sometimes.


One hundred traders. A 60-min ES chart. Print a hundred copies. One copy, one pencil, one ruler for each trader. Five minutes later, compare the results. How many get paid?...


Let profits speak for precise.

If profitable...they are precise enough. :cool:

Lowest common denominator. Absolutely. :D
 
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Search function will reveal about 1000 threads like this.
 
Quote from Incognito:

Using an indicator to confirm what price action is telling you is not only redundant but idiotic because it will slow you down.

You got two choices, you can see the call in price, this is the fastest, or you can see it much later via an indicator, if you can see it through price you dont need indicators.

Anyone who uses an indicator to support price is just playing the game of ignorance, since when price needs the permission of an indicator to confirm what it just did ?

Plain and simple, the usage of indicators are for those who cannot read price and that's quite alright but saying you can read price while using indicators well, that raises a flag right there.

Price is the strongest indicator we have at our disposal. That being said.

Ignorance is NOT knowing about something and still offering an opinion or commenting about it.

Since you don't know exactly how I use a single indicator, what the indicator is, on what charts or even the increment of those charts, your comment speaks for itself.

I agree that using any indicator without some familiarity with price movement is worthless, in a few rare cases using a single indicator can and does add clarity to price direction and strength. I think my 14 continuous years of untainted research into pure unadulterated price movement qualifys me to make statements I have backed up in my college classes and here in this forum. Of course your have a right to your opinions as well.
 
Ofcourse their are many threads about Support and Resistance Trading, they all come from the realisation that S/R should be a major focus of any method!

This thread is also about the management of trades and trying to achieve Risk to Reward ratios of atleast 1:2, I have described my management in previous posts and I would urge others if they have a great management method please describe it here so that others may benefit. Good management is the closest anyone can get to the "holy grail" imo.

Day to do this thread is about using the levels.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Price is the strongest indicator we have at our disposal. That being said.

Ignorance is NOT knowing about something and still offering an opinion or commenting about it.

Since you don't know exactly how I use a single indicator, what the indicator is, on what charts or even the increment of those charts, your comment speaks for itself.

I agree that using any indicator without some familiarity with price movement is worthless, in a few rare cases using a single indicator can and does add clarity to price direction and strength. I think my 14 continuous years of untainted research into pure unadulterated price movement qualifys me to make statements I have backed up in my college classes and here in this forum. Of course your have a right to your opinions as well.

Could you please offer some examples ?

Daniel
 
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