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Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini
- Thread starter ESResistance
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Quote from Andris_2:
In most cases 1 point (sometimes 1,25 pts for NDX) and no other comission.
Mate the spread on the ES is 0.25 at its most volatile! usually its 0.
You need atleast 1 point profit just to get BE right? Mate dump CFDs like a bad habit, the odds are so against you. Commision from most brokers is less than $5 round turn, eminis are the most efficient way to trade the S&Ps movements that I know of.
all imho.
Quote from EMC2Trader:
As you point out we are in a big picture downtrend that clearly is bracketing between 1300-1200 that may or may not be longer-term support area for a major bounce higher.
From a pure market profile standpoint, a move higher will only develop from the result of either strong initiative or responsive buying.
The market tried all August to initiate buying above the 1300 bracket high but could not do so. The many attempts to break higher set up very strong and tight consolidations (and tough trading) areas in the middle of the bracket.
When these consolidation areas broke to the downside it signaled a clear path back to the bottom of the bracket, which has been an area of very strong responsive buying, so the reversal yesterday was no surprise.
The responsive buying yesterday is the first sign that maybe, perhaps this area that will hold in the long term view you point out and propel the market higher, but there are two very clear conditions in place to monitor.
First, all the congestion at the top of the range will provide clear resistance, so the 1260 area will have to be penetrated for price to move higher from here.
Second, if we test the lows again, and price acceptance takes place in this area, price may be heading a lot lower.
EMC2,
With relation to your big picture analysis, does this analysis make any sense? I am relatively new to paying attention to the 'BIG PICTURE' in terms of previous Support/Resistance.
You are mentioning a bigger picture than I am looking at for Monday. You mention a 1200-1300 big picture analysis. And particularly before we begin to see a penetration of the 1300 that has failed several times thus far, we will need to see a break above the 1260 consolidation area first. I have this consolidation area as well.
But, to take yours even to a smaller, micro analysis for the 8th of September, I've got 3 distinct areas of trading Bias that apply to our current relation to where price is. Currently we are in an undecided, 1230-1245 bracket area.
These three areas would be:
-Above this current area
-Below this current area
-In between this current area
-If Above this area, on a more micro analysis than yours, we should have a clear path back up to 1265-1275 area.
-If below this area, we should expect a move down towards the 1220 area.
-And particularly, if we open in between this area, we should expect price to vasilate within this area, and positions entered in between the 1235-1245 area to move to extreme of bracket area?
Does this jive with the big picture in your mind?
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Obviously, you reached this conclusion by many years of enduring trials and needless tribulations and it's my opinion that experience shouldn't be discounted for our fellow newbies. I think it's very important for them to go through that growing process in order to decide for themselves why indicators are crap.Quote from ESResistance:
What I would like to do in this thread is confront the compulsion newer traders have for the excessive use of indicators.
Indicators are the Devil.
Quote from saliva:
Obviously, you reached this conclusion by many years of enduring trials and needless tribulations and it's my opinion that experience shouldn't be discounted for our fellow newbies. I think it's very important for them to go through that growing process in order to decide for themselves why indicators are crap.
I have been through a lot trying to perfect what I do, working for "the man" and trading in the evening whenever I got the chance. Ive given up time with my family and friendss, taken some losses and some major emotional pain whilst learning this stuff. I stuck with it and endured, because I wanted the freedom this vocation offers.
I hope to save others from that pain, because when you start losing money you begin to question why you are doing this, that money could have bought your family a new car, a bike for your child etc. Many will lose hope and give up, when the answer is just around the corner.
By no means am I saying I have the holy grail, but I do believe that simplicity is the best place for any newbie to start and what could be simpler than a couple of lines on a chart...
Quote from forrestang:
Does this jive with the big picture in your mind?
Forrest,
Here is my take on the more micro view you are describing. First of all your lines all look fine, but to me the up scenario is the one with reliability, not the down.
After a nice daily reversal day on Friday, I would expect some more follow thru to the upside, and the high on Friday does line up nicely with swing resistance on Thursday, and a break above this level does clear the path to the 1260 area, and I go into next week "expecting" this (not predicting this..lol)
The downside, however, is not clear to me yet, because price was strongly rejected off the lows, and no real consolidation (balance) has formed down here yet as Fridays move was more straight down then straight up.
So, if the market heads lower from here, there is still no reassurance that it will test the lows at this time, because so far this is an area of strong responsive buying.
However, if a clear balance area forms in this area, and then breaks to the downside, a test of the recent lows is much more likely, at least the way I look to read things....
Quote from Cheese:
The money lies in the gyrations. Now the aim: it is to make yourself rich (it is not to show off, knocking off a few profits here and there). ...............
And that is it in a nutshell cheese.... trade the gyrations, waves ... call them what you will... they are the synthetic extensions to the straight line between the rth open and the yet to be revealed close of each session
regard
f9
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