Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

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Quote from FutsTrader111:

Technical indicators have nothing to do with the success or failure of your trade. It merely is a cognitive exercise to fool you into thinking it is.

This is where most traders fail and spend years trying to find that elusive holy grail while getting soaked.
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And the reason why all of us get suckered into buying indicator based systems when we first get started...we think they are telling us something deeper about the charts. They are at most a compliment, not the be all end all.

Nice to talk to like minded people : )
 
I was looking at your thread title

"Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini "

Although I am well aware that newbies chase after indicators as the Holy Grail, I have seen quite a few different works that evidences little value of using indicators based on their classical definitions (especially after factoring in trading costs).

I had been interested in support & resistance about 5 years ago, and starting reviewing someone's work (call it an "S&R advisory"), but turns out his calls based on S&R did not have a positive expectancy. When challenged on this (he would leave losing trades out of his track record and puff up winers at times), he became a wounded creature, as if his honesty had been challenged. I noticed his forum shrivelled up and his track record was usually non-updated for as much as 18 months. I am not publishing his website here, but if you (the OP) are interested, I will PM - will not PM it to others, so please do not ask. As I said, S&R based on his use did not show value. Does not mean other approaches using it work or do not work.

So anyway, the title of this thread presumes that S&R is to be preferred over indicators. Have you ever done any serious statistical testing on S&R and demonstrated to yourself that S&R has a positive expectancy, or have you just published the daily numbers?

I always considered S&R as more of something to control stoplosses/profit targets, rather than as a trading method itself. But I have never seen any objective insitutional analysis that showed value or non-value of S&R.

Thanks,
TZ
 
Hey TZ

I don't think indicators are useless, the title of the thread was more aimed at arousing debate. Indicators can add value if used appropriately and in a limited way. Let me give an analogy of my thinking towards indicators. You're about to go out to a dinner party and are getting dressed, now the CORE of your outfit, will be your suit, shirt, socks, underwear and shoes. These core elements are what make up your attire for the evening and are all pretty important for you to wear as these are the things people will look at most. As an ACCESSORY you happen to wear some cuff links, just to complete the look.

In my method I believe that Support and Resistance in confluence with pivots, MP and fibs is your CORE as these are the things people will look at most. And that Indicators should be the ACCESSORY just to "complete the look" or confirm the trade.

Now you wouldnt go to a dinner party just wearing cuff links now would you?! : )

I have not completed a long term study on S/R and its effectiveness. But I have found my personal experience of using S/R consistently has given me an edge in the market.

Worst case scenario S/R doesn't work...however using S/R you limit the number of trades you take to areas of previous emotional reaction. Just decreasing the number of trades you take can give a trader an edge. Over trading is where many newbies and veterans alike feel the market burn them.

Hope I have answered your questions. If you have any more feel free...
 
****LEVELS FOR EURUSD, GBPUSD AND USDJPY****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

****LEVELS FOR NQ, YM AND ES****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

I think the difference is knowing when your indicators are not working. I saw one of my indicators today was not working, but still made money from reading the chart based on my general strategy.
 
****LEVELS FOR EURUSD, GBPUSD AND USDJPY****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

****LEVELS FOR NQ, YM AND ES****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

****LEVELS FOR NQ, YM AND ES****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

****LEVELS FOR EURUSD, GBPUSD AND USDJPY****

Hi everyone

Please find attached todays levels. The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade.

Good trading all
 

Attachments

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