MoveTimer,
I am eagerly awaiting your posts. Don't get dissuaded by the naysayers. I've been using a similar model (the idea with some variation, not exactly the math you describe), with great success in the ZB and ZN (30 year and 10 year) contracts. I've had my most profitable and consistent results ever, this April and May, utilizing cycle analysis of a single best time to buy and a single best time to sell.
Good trading to you and don't stop posting!