Index futures automation

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  • YES!

    Votes: 56 67.5%
  • Hell naw.

    Votes: 14 16.9%
  • I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    Votes: 13 15.7%

  • Total voters
    83
Ok full year review:

Balance end of Dec 2022: $10359.26
Added: $2500 (Jan) - top off after shitty performance
Added: $8000 (feb) - added after a decent month

2023 Cost basis: $20859.26

Gross:
Jan: -$2406.36
Feb: $845
Mar: $803
Apr: $1561.50
May: $961.5
Jun: $1136
Jul: $929
Aug: $8179
Sep: $4026.50
Oct: $2552.5
Nov: -$1275.5
Dec: $2126.50

These are gross profit by the way. You can figure out my true net taking the end of the month NLV-initial balance - payments/receipts (under base currency USD)

Net:
Jan: -$2703.16
Feb: $648.2
Mar: $594.9
Apr: $1183.64
May: $604.3
Jun: $912
Jul: $811.8
Aug: $7946.6
Sep: $3676.5
Oct: $1981.7
Nov: -$1692.7
Dec: $1722.5

So net profit of $15686.28 or 75.2% return for 2023


I didn't add the jan,feb statements, so here it is:

View attachment 330667
View attachment 330668

And December's

View attachment 330669


For January I added a total of $13k to the account to bring to $50k so that I could fast track trading the NQ.
I haven't traded NQ since 2020!

December pnl +$2500

TWR for this month is 5.08%
NDX gained 1.85%
SPX gained 1.66%

So @Overnight , I'm waiting on your cash deposit so I can trade your money and take you out of your trading misery...

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Consider tracking your avg points per day in the NQ. Frees your mind from the money. Gives you confidence knowing it's shown to be bounded in a comfortable, positive range over the long-term. It "scales" to 10 contracts, no problem.

The first 5 min and 60 min avg ranges on the NQ are excellent benchmarks from which to measure your system's capabilities. A running average of 22 days is very informative.
 
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Consider tracking your avg points per day in the NQ. Frees your mind from the money. Gives you confidence knowing it's shown to be bounded in a comfortable, positive range over the long-term. It "scales" to 10 contracts, no problem.

The first 5 min and 60 min avg ranges on the NQ are excellent benchmarks from which to measure your system's capabilities. A running average of 22 days is very informative.

I make table scraps after fees/commissions.

My per trade win rate is bout 68%

Risk of ruin comes out to be 2.3%

At 97% daily win rate, my probability of 2 consecutive losers is 0.09% (about 1 event in a year)

Any day that triggers the maximum loss will take me back 3-4 months.

Didn't have a loss last year (if the bot worked per rules). So i'm due this yer

How's that for trading outside the box :D
 
Last edited:
For January I added a total of $13k to the account to bring to $50k so that I could fast track trading the NQ.
I haven't traded NQ since 2020!

December pnl +$2500

TWR for this month is 5.08%
NDX gained 1.85%
SPX gained 1.66%

So @Overnight , I'm waiting on your cash deposit so I can trade your money and take you out of your trading misery...

View attachment 333050


Feb pnl: +$2210
feb return: 4.26%
ndx: 5.29%
spx: 5.10%

YTD return: 9.56%
NDX: 7.24%
SPX: 6.84%

upload_2024-3-1_10-5-26.png


upload_2024-3-1_10-6-15.png
 
My ge66 raider got completely fried after running games at 95c for couple of months. I suspect the paste needed replacing. Experienced multiple blue screens. Didn't feel like opening it up and dismantling it.

Had to get an emergency rig. I think I might go back to desktop setup for a while since it's easier to fix and upgrade
ASUS - ROG Gaming Desktop - Intel Core i7-13700KF - 32GB Memory - NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4060Ti - 1TB SSD - Black
PXL_20240320_022755164.jpg
 
Well, the strategy finally crapped out. Everything was working as per the trading plan. This strategy will have a big loss and will take months to recover. In the backtests, I've had max +900 days of recovery time. Even though it looked like a steady strategy, mentally that would probably drive me crazy to sit through that. So I'm going to tweak the risk a little bit to figure out how to balance income with the risk:


Loss happened the week of 3/18. So the year down about -25%. Good thing for that max stop loss though..sheesh

upload_2024-3-29_8-54-23.png


upload_2024-3-29_9-0-53.png
 
I think there is a sweet spot between trading the anticipated breakout and when trading the anticipated range move.

I know that my current strategy will crap out if the range last too long.

But if I can somehow jump on the range after couple of breakout failures, that may help avoid range loss (assuming range will continue at that point and not just final break).
 
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