Index futures automation

[hilmy83]

So I decide to start trading from my tablet and I almost fucked up big time, due to damn device going sleep mode and didnt sound the alerts.

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My device fell asleep and I didn't get an alert (yellow circle) to prepare to reverse (yellow arrow). Price kept going up triggering my limit orders. WHen I woke up I was like a deer in the headlights and just placed my exit at around b/e. My "oh fuck" stop would've been 440.75

Made sure i check "do not sleep while charging".

My trading approach in a nutshell:

1. Fade the range
2. NO MORE REVERSES
3. Reduce position when trade is in the red
4. Hold position till target when trade is in the green

I think my mae/mfe probability is about 50/50. If that's the case, I should net +ev over large enough sample size.

 

[NoahA]

My trading approach in a nutshell:

1. Fade the range
2. NO MORE REVERSES
3. Reduce position when trade is in the red
4. Hold position till target when trade is in the green

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I think my mae/mfe probability is about 50/50. If that's the case, I should net +ev over large enough sample size.

What I like about you is that you have balls of steel! Like I have no idea how you can sit through price going against you so much and only exit 1 contract at a loss and still hold one more, and then close it out for a great profit!

For me, when price came down to 17667, not only was that the previous day high, but also the overnight low since right at the beginning of the session is turned here. That obvious V recovery was also quite obvious a few bars later, and you still could have closed the 2 contracts for a nice profit. Now I know its all hindsight trading, but in addition to your posted trading approach rule set, I think taking positions or exiting positions at key areas must be added as well.

But once again, you're killing it, and I'm not, so what do I know. My only question though is about your 50/50 stat you mention. If this was the case, shouldn't we already see more losing days? I think your stats are way better for your entries, and the only thing that will perhaps hold you back, based on what I saw in the past trades, is the scaling into a loser and not exiting a trade that isn't working. Like here, that short should have been closed much sooner, way before it turned into a loss for one of those contracts.

 

[hilmy83]

What I like about you is that you have balls of steel! Like I have no idea how you can sit through price going against you so much and only exit 1 contract at a loss and still hold one more, and then close it out for a great profit!

For me, when price came down to 17667, not only was that the previous day high, but also the overnight low since right at the beginning of the session is turned here. That obvious V recovery was also quite obvious a few bars later, and you still could have closed the 2 contracts for a nice profit. Now I know its all hindsight trading, but in addition to your posted trading approach rule set, I think taking positions or exiting positions at key areas must be added as well.

But once again, you're killing it, and I'm not, so what do I know. My only question though is about your 50/50 stat you mention. If this was the case, shouldn't we already see more losing days? I think your stats are way better for your entries, and the only thing that will perhaps hold you back, based on what I saw in the past trades, is the scaling into a loser and not exiting a trade that isn't working. Like here, that short should have been closed much sooner, way before it turned into a loss for one of those contracts.

Yes I'm also going to stop scaling into losing trades.

Maybe I should've listened to a fellow graduate

 

[hilmy83]

My trading approach in a nutshell:

1. Fade the range
2. NO MORE REVERSES
3. Reduce position when trade is in the red
4. Hold position till target when trade is in the green

View attachment 338905
View attachment 338906

I think my mae/mfe probability is about 50/50. If that's the case, I should net +ev over large enough sample size.

 

[hilmy83]

I keep going back and forth in my head whether to scale in or not. Maybe the best of both world is do partial and have hard exit.

I don't think I can trade reversion with just one single entry

 

[hilmy83]

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[hilmy83]

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[NoahA]

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Out of curiosity, how would you rate this performance? Of course you made $1.3k, so that is awesome. But you did scale into a loser (and I'm not suggesting this is always bad, just pointing it out), and by 4:30, it was obvious that there were lower highs and lower lows, so it sure appeared as if the momentum was down. So I'm just curious to ask if you had solid reasons for why you still thought it would turn around, or what even made you confident to scale in?

It seems like the strategy is:

1. take a trade
2. if it goes against you, add more
3. wait for a profitable exit

This of course works well, and your entries are clearly better than average or else you would have gotten hit with a big loss way more often than you have so far, but I'm sure a big loss is coming again.

But you know, I'm not even saying what you're doing is wrong. I think maybe trading could be as simple as this, and especially if a few big losses are factored in. It seems to work out for you way more often than it should, and I'm scratching my head trying to figure out why... LOL

 

[hilmy83]

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Out of curiosity, how would you rate this performance? Of course you made $1.3k, so that is awesome. But you did scale into a loser (and I'm not suggesting this is always bad, just pointing it out), and by 4:30, it was obvious that there were lower highs and lower lows, so it sure appeared as if the momentum was down. So I'm just curious to ask if you had solid reasons for why you still thought it would turn around, or what even made you confident to scale in?

It seems like the strategy is:

1. take a trade
2. if it goes against you, add more
3. wait for a profitable exit

This of course works well, and your entries are clearly better than average or else you would have gotten hit with a big loss way more often than you have so far, but I'm sure a big loss is coming again.

But you know, I'm not even saying what you're doing is wrong. I think maybe trading could be as simple as this, and especially if a few big losses are factored in. It seems to work out for you way more often than it should, and I'm scratching my head trying to figure out why... LOL

Buy low, sell high; flip when necessary.
I don't know what else to say.

 

[hilmy83]

Well, the strategy finally crapped out. Everything was working as per the trading plan. This strategy will have a big loss and will take months to recover. In the backtests, I've had max +900 days of recovery time. Even though it looked like a steady strategy, mentally that would probably drive me crazy to sit through that. So I'm going to tweak the risk a little bit to figure out how to balance income with the risk:


Loss happened the week of 3/18. So the year down about -25%. Good thing for that max stop loss though..sheesh

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No trades today, AMP margins up.

For Apr 2024: +$18,975

YTD is just about +12%

I'm thinking taking some funds out and put into CC ETFs. At least I won't risk 100% in trading. To be quiet honest, manual trading takes way too much effort. Half the time I'm half awake; it's like trading drunk. I miss the bot days.

Maybe this is the end of this journal until I figure out how to get back to auto trading again....